South Africa 2009

[Verily]

Early reports with around 1000 votes has the ANC ahead in all but two provinces, Western Cape and Northern Cape where the DA leads.

did DA win both in 2004? or whenever the last election was.

The DA didn't win any provinces in 2004, but Western Cape is its strongest province while Northern Cape is also a strong area for the DA. With the ANC-COPE split, the DA will probably win Western Cape in the end.

[Hash]

Early reports with around 1000 votes has the ANC ahead in all but two provinces, Western Cape and Northern Cape where the DA leads.

did DA win both in 2004? or whenever the last election was.

The DA didn't win any provinces in 2004, but Western Cape is its strongest province while Northern Cape is also a strong area for the DA. With the ANC-COPE split, the DA will probably win Western Cape in the end.

The DA's major gains will be in Western Cape... it actually performed really badly in Western Cape in 2004, though I think that was based on voter discontent with the Democratic-National alliance provincially that fell apart and so forth.

Northern Cape is also strong for the DA, though Gauteng (J-Burg) is the second strongest DA province, not Northern Cape.

[Hash]

Results here: http://www.sabcnews.com/elections/ under "race for votes".

These are results by province... they don't seem to have national stuff up.

[Hash]

Edit. Current national vote is

ANC 53.74
DA 26.46
COPE 8.47
ID 2.74
IFP 2.39 (31.54% in KZN)

[Hash]

ANC 54.11
DA 26.69
COPE 8.57
ID 3.12
VF+ 2.04 (!)
IFP 1.75

[Verily]

ANC 54.11
DA 26.69
COPE 8.57
ID 3.12
VF+ 2.04 (!)
IFP 1.75

The New National Party vote had to go somewhere, and it certainly wasn't going to go to the ANC. Obviously the VF+ numbers will drop as more areas in the east come in.

[Hash]

ANC 54.11
DA 26.69
COPE 8.57
ID 3.12
VF+ 2.04 (!)
IFP 1.75

The New National Party vote had to go somewhere, and it certainly wasn't going to go to the ANC.

Though there's apparently a new New National Party also running.

[Hash]

ANC 54.28
DA 26.86
COPE 7.84
ID 3.03
IFP 2.20

[Dan the Roman]

White and Colored areas always report first, so the DA and FF will go down. That said, the DA only dropped from 16% in the initial results to 12% so they have a good shot at getting around 20% of the vote, which would be an enormous breakthrough for them. Bad result for COPE. ANC, meh, may not get two-thirds should be near 60.

This looks a lot like 1994 actually.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Maybe it's my browser, but that web site sure is troublesome for me. I'm currently getting "Infinity" (in words) for all except three parties which have "NaN". Even when the results were numbers, it often stayed the same numbers when I went from provincial to national, making it hard to know what was what.

[Hash]

White and Colored areas always report first, so the DA and FF will go down. That said, the DA only dropped from 16% in the initial results to 12% so they have a good shot at getting around 20% of the vote, which would be an enormous breakthrough for them. Bad result for COPE. ANC, meh, may not get two-thirds should be near 60.

This looks a lot like 1994 actually.

The DA actually led on the very first results (some white polling station in the Cape 'burbs) tonight.

Holding out hope for the DA breaking 20%

[Dan the Roman]

On second examination so few results are in that it is hard to judge anything. That said if the turnout reports on the DA website are right they should have a decent night.

[Hash]

On second examination so few results are in that it is hard to judge anything. That said if the turnout reports on the DA website are right they should have a decent night.

Yeah, according to the IEC, this is like 3k votes or something in all. It's very little.

Most of it from EC and WC Provinces.

[Dan the Roman]

On second examination so few results are in that it is hard to judge anything. That said if the turnout reports on the DA website are right they should have a decent night.

Yeah, according to the IEC, this is like 3k votes or something in all. It's very little.

Most of it from EC and WC Provinces.

Which should massively overstate the DA, since WC is its strongest province.

[Hash]

On second examination so few results are in that it is hard to judge anything. That said if the turnout reports on the DA website are right they should have a decent night.

Yeah, according to the IEC, this is like 3k votes or something in all. It's very little.

Most of it from EC and WC Provinces.

Which should massively overstate the DA, since WC is its strongest province.

... while Eastern Cape is not at all a strong province for the DA.

[Verily]

On second examination so few results are in that it is hard to judge anything. That said if the turnout reports on the DA website are right they should have a decent night.

Yeah, according to the IEC, this is like 3k votes or something in all. It's very little.

Most of it from EC and WC Provinces.

Which should massively overstate the DA, since WC is its strongest province.

... while Eastern Cape is not at all a strong province for the DA.

And the DA is at 55% in WC right now while they took 27% there in 2004. So clearly they've improved their position substantially. I would expect the DA to win around 20%, maybe a bit more, in the end.

[Hash]

On second examination so few results are in that it is hard to judge anything. That said if the turnout reports on the DA website are right they should have a decent night.

Yeah, according to the IEC, this is like 3k votes or something in all. It's very little.

Most of it from EC and WC Provinces.

Which should massively overstate the DA, since WC is its strongest province.

... while Eastern Cape is not at all a strong province for the DA.

And the DA is at 55% in WC right now while they took 27% there in 2004. So clearly they've improved their position substantially. I would expect the DA to win around 20%, maybe a bit more, in the end.

The DA certainly won't win 55% in Western Cape in the end.

[Dan the Roman]

On second examination so few results are in that it is hard to judge anything. That said if the turnout reports on the DA website are right they should have a decent night.

Yeah, according to the IEC, this is like 3k votes or something in all. It's very little.

Most of it from EC and WC Provinces.

Which should massively overstate the DA, since WC is its strongest province.

... while Eastern Cape is not at all a strong province for the DA.

And the DA is at 55% in WC right now while they took 27% there in 2004. So clearly they've improved their position substantially. I would expect the DA to win around 20%, maybe a bit more, in the end.

The Northern Cape results are also likely highly unrepresentative. Unless you buy the ANC being down 30 points on last time. But yeah the DA is doing better than 2004 right now.

[Hash]

ANC 52.68
DA 29.12
COPE 7.20
ID 3.25
VF+ 2.20

[Dan the Roman]

ANC 63%
DA   22%
COPE 8%
Others 7%

[Hash]

ANC 65.12
DA 17.61
COPE 8.16
IFP 2.91
ID 1.37

DA leads Western Cape with over 50% of the votes. DA gains elsewhere proving spotty and minimal.

[minionofmidas]

ANC 66.62%
DA 16.23%
COPE 7.92%
IFP 3.24%
UDM 1.18%
ID 1.18%

This with ~8.3mio votes in.

[ag]

ANC 65.12
DA 17.61
COPE 8.16
IFP 2.91
ID 1.37

DA leads Western Cape with over 50% of the votes. DA gains elsewhere proving spotty and minimal.

Actually, the fact that DA has gains pretty much accross the board is quite remarkable: note, this time there is another largeish opposition party, COPE, and DA still gains. What is preventing ANC's national result from showing a major poll is the fact that Zuma is Zulu: Inkata collapsed in Kwazulu-Natal. Elsewhere, ANC doing is substantially worse then last time. Also, there is notable consolidation of the opposition - minor parties collapse.

Anyway, the latest nationwide (national vote: provincial votes are separate). In brackets, provisional change from 2004

AND 66.62% (-3.07%)
DA 16.22% (+3.85%)
COPE 7.92% (+7.92%)
IFP 3.24% (- 3.73%; and that's the ANC gain)
UDM 1.18% (-1.10%)
ID 1.17% (-0.53%)
FF+ 0.88% (+0.01%)
ACDP 0.74% (-0.86%)

[Verily]

Well, fingers crossed that the DA/ID government in Western Cape will show South Africa why voting mindlessly for the ANC is a bad idea.

[ag]

So, here is Western Cape current PROVINCIAL tally (the national tally from WC is slightly worse for DA, slightly better for ANC). In brackets change from 2004:

DA 50.32% (+23.21%)
ANC 31.37% (-13.88%)
COPE 8.11% (+8.11%)
ID 6.16% (-1.68%)
ACDP 1.37% (-2.07%)
UDM 0.61%  (-1.14%)
FF+ 0.59% (-0.02%)
NNP not running (-10.87%)