Canadian Election 2019

[Lord Halifax]

Dissolution tomorrow.

Which of the big parties is likely to end up with the most seats?

[Lord Halifax]

I'm really proud of Jagmeet's response.  It definitely has the ability to turn around the campaign. It's unfortunate that this has to be reason for it.

Actually, I found the statement rather overwrought. Canada is, without question, the most tolerant, welcoming, and integrating place on earth. Canadians take a lot of pride in that fact, and a single truly stupid and insensitive photo cannot undo it. To pretend that a photo like this somehow makes Canada less tolerant is just absurd. And to pretend that Trudeau is like people who go around beating minorities up is even more absurd.

If that's what you got out of his response, there is something wrong with your comprehension skills.

And no, Canada is not "the most tolerant, welcoming and integrating place on earth". What a ridiculous thing to say.

The statement doesn't imply Canada is perfect on these issues, just that it's better than the rest of the world. Which countries do you consider to be more tolerant, welcoming and integrating than Canada?

[Lord Halifax]

The Bloc says it will not take part in formal coalition or alliance. Will give support piece by piece, bill by bill.

So neither the Liberals or the Conservatives could rely on their support? Correct me if I'm wrong, but this would mean that either the Conservatives or Liberals+NDP would need to get 170, right?

No, it could also mean a minority government carrying business without a deal and just negociating every bill (like in 2004-2011).

But who gets to be PM if neither side has a majority and the Bloc stays neutral?

[Lord Halifax]

The Bloc says it will not take part in formal coalition or alliance. Will give support piece by piece, bill by bill.

So neither the Liberals or the Conservatives could rely on their support? Correct me if I'm wrong, but this would mean that either the Conservatives or Liberals+NDP would need to get 170, right?

No, it could also mean a minority government carrying business without a deal and just negociating every bill (like in 2004-2011).

But who gets to be PM if neither side has a majority and the Bloc stays neutral?

Trudeau gets the first shot as incumbent, so he either forfeits it to the Conservatives and or present a Throne's Speech (where Bloc will have a take a decision (which may be abstention)).

Is abstention the most likely?

[Lord Halifax]

Yes, the East-West divide is sharp in Canada in a way American observers may not be able to comprehend (we have no "Midwest" equivalent).  Also the Great Plains isn't a cultural region in the US but the Prairies very much is one in Canada.

I thought Manitoba and Northern Ontario were your Midwest.