Washington state megathread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is Inslee expected to have a close race or is this going to be the first blowout in 16 years?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Really hoping Jayapal doesn't make the general. The country needs to show Bernie loud and clear that Socialism is not the answer.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Summary of results for tonight:

Senate: Murray leads Vance 53-28. All D's add up to 58.15%, All R's add up to 35.89%. Utterly Safe D.

Governor: Inslee leads Bryant 49-38. All D's add up to 53.64%, All R's add up to 43.33%. Probably not going to flip, but Inslee will probably underperform Hillary by a few points while Murray has a shot of overperforming Hillary.

WA-4: Newhouse has the 1st slot, but the 2nd slot is close - Didier (R) leads McKinley (D) by under 3k votes. Worth watching the late ballots.

WA-7: Utterly Despicable. Jayapal (Socialist) easily wins the first slot. Whoever ultimately wins out for the 2nd slot between McDermott (D) and Walkinshaw (D) - McDermott leads by 586 votes atm - needs to run an aggressive campaign - America must be shown that Socialism is not the answer.

WA-8: Reichert has the 1st slot, but the 2nd slot is close - Ventrella (D) leads Ramos (D) by about 3500 votes. Worth watching the late ballots.

WA-10: Time to laugh at Politico, who lists Ferguson, who placed third, as a third partier when she's actually a Democrat. Heck (D, inc.) probably doesn't enjoy being under 50%, but the cumulative D vote adds up to 59.51% to 36.94% for the only republican. He's fine for November.

Sec. State: Wyman ahead 48-46 so far. She hasn't locked down the first slot, but she has it for now. Watch the late ballots.

Treasurer: R vs. R, barring a late surge for Comerford

Auditor: The Republican placed first, but the two democrats add to 52.13% to 37.43% for the only republican. McCarthy (D) has the 2nd slot and should be okay in November.

Attorney General: Time to laugh at R's for not even running a candidate for an office they held before the 2012 elections. Ferguson (D, inc.) easily defeated a Libertarian and will do so again in November.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Walkinshaw takes the lead for WA-7 2nd slot after the first day of late ballot counting.

Also, Wyman is still up 48-46.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Update: Clint Didier can now be projected to win the 2nd slot in WA-4. Still too close to call for the 2nd slots in the 7th and the 8th.

It appears that Inslee will be held to a single digit margin once everything is in

Wyman's margin isn't 48%-46% anymore - it's 49%-45% now!

Treasurer is clearly going to be R vs R. Democrats not catching up at all.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

Republicans basically conceded the senate race months ago.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on late ballots, calling the Washington 7th 2nd slot for Walkinshaw (Jayapal has the first slot) and the Washington 8th 2nd slot for Ventrella (Reichert has the first slot).

Counting will continue for another week - 35k ballots left statewide but it's not enough to realistically change anything. Treasurer is mathematically R vs. R now. Wyman isn't quite mathematically locked into slot 1 yet for SOS, but it would take quite the margin among the remaining ballots for Podlowski to catch up. It has narrowed back to 48-46 though.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wyman's 1st round victory is mathematically locked in now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?

I don't know what kind of moderate identifies with the Republican party these days.  They must both be pretty old-fashioned.

Err...George Pataki, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Lisa Murkowski, Mark Kirk, Carlos Curbelo, Bruce Poliquin, Susan Collins...even within Washington you have Steve Litzow, Andy Hill, Rob McKenna, Kim Wyman, maybe Dino Rossi.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?

I don't know what kind of moderate identifies with the Republican party these days.  They must both be pretty old-fashioned.

Err...George Pataki, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Lisa Murkowski, Mark Kirk, Carlos Curbelo, Bruce Poliquin, Susan Collins...even within Washington you have Steve Litzow, Andy Hill, Rob McKenna, Kim Wyman, maybe Dino Rossi.

Those people are all clueless and terrible.  Get a grip.  Suffice it to say that I will not be recruiting you for advice on how to vote for Washington State Treasurer.

Well, obviously a socialist like yourself (green party, whatever, it's basically the same) thinks Hillary Clinton or similar is "moderate", but that's not reality. That being said, neither candidate is likely to agree with you on anything, so just leave that part of the ballot blank.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WA certified results: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/default.htm

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

When will the next wave of votes come in?

Take a look at this: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20170801/Turnout.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Virtually no change in the margin after the 2nd day of counting.

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
17,112   55.45%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
13,749   44.55%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   30,861

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dhingra's mandate getting a little smaller as more ballots roll in:

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
24,400   55.19%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
19,812   44.81%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   44,212   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results have been certified: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/default.htm