Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Unrelated note: The Seattle Times is reporting that the Washington GOP has failed to pay its $55,000 share of the lawsuit against the top-two primary. A GOP lawyer said that the state should "not expect payment any time soon". Joke party.

Oh and the Libertarians owe $16,300 as well. I'm pretty sure that's more money than the Washington Libertarian Party has raised in its entire existence though so I don't really blame them for giving up.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Isn't Gregoire a little old to become a Supreme Court Justice?
I certainly could see her becoming Attorney General, especially if Napolitano (another obvious choice) is appointed to the Supreme Court.

[ottermax]

Isn't Gregoire a little old to become a Supreme Court Justice?
I certainly could see her becoming Attorney General, especially if Napolitano (another obvious choice) is appointed to the Supreme Court.

I've always felt that age was a positive for Supreme Court, although I can see how a selfish leader would want a young justice. But isn't a healthy justice more important than a young one?

[Alcon]

Quasi-final Pierce County numbers.  University Place no longer sucks quite as much (Steilacoom either.)

Auburn (part): 51.94%
Bonney Lake: 43.37%
Carbonado: 26.79%
DuPont: 47.31%
Eatonville: 41.05%
Edgewood: 45.98%
Fife: 45.19%
Fircrest: 54.22%
Gig Harbor: 51.00%
Lakewood: 46.87%
Milton (part): 43.06%
Orting: 41.30%
Pacific (part): 36.36%
Puyallup: 44.61%
Roy: 33.33%
Ruston: 58.73%
South Prairie: 36.56%
Steilacoom: 50.93%
Sumner: 49.12%
Tacoma: 57.62%
University Place: 50.79%
Wilkeson: 51.30%
Unincorporated: 42.61%

Tacoma neighborhoods:

Downtown/Port: 79.56%
North End: 72.21%
Hilltop: 65.26%
Central Tacoma: 60.26%
West End: 54.59%
South Tacoma: 53.99%
Northeast Tacoma: 50.89%
East Tacoma: 50.12%
South End: 46.58%

Best precincts in the county were Downtown Tacoma (82.70%), University of Puget Sound area in North Tacoma (80.56%), and west of the Proctor District in North Tacoma (77.75%).  R-71 performed clearly better than Obama from the Proctor District in North Tacoma, west through downtown.

On the other way, the exurban developments south along Mountain Highway (out toward the Roy Y, Graham, Elk Plain) and southeast of Tacoma (Midland, Summit) were complete bloodbaths.

[Meeker]

Why does Carbonado hate gay people so much?

[Alcon]

Why does Carbonado hate gay people so much?

I don't know much about Carbonado or Wilkeson.  I've never been to either.  Both are former coal towns, heavily white, weirdly low poverty rates for ex-mining areas.  Wikeson seems to have more touristy jobs while Carbonado has an odd number of education workers.

Wilkeson is so far the only McCain/Approve R-71 town.  It's worth mentioning that Obama only got 33.81% in Carbonado, so his fall there wasn't a major anomaly or anything.  I think Clinton won both handily in the primary.  I haven't figured out, besides Wilkeson having a touristy downtown, why they vote so differently.

[Meeker]

Names being thrown around for Constantine's seat:

- State Rep. Zack Hudgins (D-Tukwilla)
- State Sen. Joe McDermott (D- West Seattle)
- Normandy Park Mayor Shawn McEvoy
- Seattle City Councilmember Jan Drago

It's not clear whether the appointee will be someone who wants to run for the seat in November or just a caretaker (Drago says she's cool with being a caretaker). Without Constantine the County Council is split 4-4 (even though it's "non-partisan") so this could get bloody.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Milton (part): 43.06%
Pacific (part): 36.36%

Why are Milton and Pacific so conservative?  Are these sparsely populated industrial areas or wingnut enclaves?

[Alcon]

Milton (part): 43.06%
Pacific (part): 36.36%

Why are Milton and Pacific so conservative?  Are these sparsely populated industrial areas or wingnut enclaves?

Nah, Obama won both.  They're just lower middle class exurban areas, the exact kind of place where R-71 got slaughtered.

There were also only 22 votes in the Pierce County portion of Pacific.

[CultureKing]

I have never really understood why Pierce county is so conservative in relation to the rest of the Puget Sound area. It has a major urban area in Tacoma, a good amount of educated people and while yes it does have a military base so do Kitsap and Island counties... Perhaps it just needs to be  the odd man out.

[Alcon]

I have never really understood why Pierce county is so conservative in relation to the rest of the Puget Sound area. It has a major urban area in Tacoma, a good amount of educated people and while yes it does have a military base so do Kitsap and Island counties... Perhaps it just needs to be  the odd man out.

Pierce County just has a heck of a lot of this crap -- mid-density, fairly uneducated sprawlburbia.  Take the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway area, for instance.  Nearly 100,000 people.  Median household income is about 25% higher than national average.  Bachelor's degree possession is nearly 40% lower.

Pierce County suburbs aren't Seattle suburbs, too.  Take University Place.  Median household income about 30% higher than national average.  But even in the most "polished" Tacoma suburb, only a third of residents have a bachelor's degree.  In parts of North Tacoma, that number is around 60%.  But that part of Tacoma is a minority in Tacoma, which is in turn less than a quarter of Pierce County.

Pierce County does have areas with an educated, middle class King County-ish culture.  It's just that it has a lot more areas, with a lot more people, that there's just no reason to go to, unless you happen to know somebody in the 312th Avenue Court East sprawlfest.  And those areas are low-education, dual-income, lower middle class family areas.  They were bad for OK for Gore, bad for John Kerry, better for Obama, and death for R-71.

Thurston and Snohomish have a lot of that too, though, and King County has some.  Outside of the core Seattle metro, growth management in the Puget Sound was pretty horrible.

[CultureKing]

I have never really understood why Pierce county is so conservative in relation to the rest of the Puget Sound area. It has a major urban area in Tacoma, a good amount of educated people and while yes it does have a military base so do Kitsap and Island counties... Perhaps it just needs to be  the odd man out.

Pierce County just has a heck of a lot of this crap -- mid-density, fairly uneducated sprawlburbia.  Take the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway area, for instance.  Nearly 100,000 people.  Median household income is about 25% higher than national average.  Bachelor's degree possession is nearly 40% lower.

Pierce County suburbs aren't Seattle suburbs, too.  Take University Place.  Median household income about 30% higher than national average.  But even in the most "polished" Tacoma suburb, only a third of residents have a bachelor's degree.  In parts of North Tacoma, that number is around 60%.  But that part of Tacoma is a minority in Tacoma, which is in turn less than a quarter of Pierce County.

Pierce County does have areas with an educated, middle class King County-ish culture.  It's just that it has a lot more areas, with a lot more people, that there's just no reason to go to, unless you happen to know somebody in the 312th Avenue Court East sprawlfest.  And those areas are low-education, dual-income, lower middle class family areas.  They were bad for OK for Gore, bad for John Kerry, better for Obama, and death for R-71.

Thurston and Snohomish have a lot of that too, though, and King County has some.  Outside of the core Seattle metro, growth management in the Puget Sound was pretty horrible.

But here in Thurston we still outweigh all the suburb areas drastically by the very democratically partisan areas of Olympia, Boston Harbor and Evergreen.

[bgwah]

I knew that would be a link to Graham before clicking it.

[Alcon]

Some random R-71 comparisons to tide over for precinct results.  Clockwise from upper left: R-71 margin vs. Obama in 2008 Presidential; R-71 margin vs. Kerry in 2004 Presidential; turnout (5% intervals ranging from >40 to >70); change in R-71 margin since election night (in 1% intervals).



R-71's performance in Kitsap was really weird.  Clallam, Jefferson, Island and San Juan are odd to, but they all have an older, socially moderate population to (sort of) explain them.  Kitsap's demographics are closer to Snohomish and Pierce's.

My only theory is that R-71 did very well in North Kitsap and on Bainbridge, which would kinda fit with other results, but Bremerton & Co. are lower middle class and should have seen big drops that canceled North Kitsap's out.  We'll see.

[Meeker]

How is it possible for the state swing to be larger than any individual county swing?

[Alcon]

How is it possible for the state swing to be larger than any individual county swing?

King County was 25% of the vote on Election Night and is now 32%.

[Alcon]

Pierce's finalish abstract results:

[Stranger Than Fiction]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Exactly the area I had in mind.  Although isn't the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway corridor heavily populated by military personnel and cops, firefighters?  I noticed there is a Barista Gone Wild stand at SR-7 and 217 St Ct E in Spanaway.  Perhaps worth checking out?

[Holmes]

Kind of unrelated, but has anyone ever played the game "Mother"? In English, it's nicknamed "Earthbound Zero". Anyway, I imported it, and there's actually a place called "Spookane". The game is an RPG about paranormal stuff, etc etc and the town is infested with ghosts when you first get there... though it was pretty funny.

[Meeker]

For shame, 28-424. For shame.

[Alcon]

Here's a fun map, R-71 margin vs. Obama margin:

[Alcon]

I have precinct returns for all counties but: Adams, Clark, King, Pend Oreille, Walla Walla, Yakima.

So far R-71's best places (with at least 250 votes cast, as will go for all lists here) are:

1. Langley: 81.40%
2. Port Townsend: 80.12%
3. Bainbridge Island: 79.40%
4. Olympia: 72.56%
5. La Conner: 70.84%
6. Bellingham: 69.99%
7. Friday Harbor: 66.97%
8. Coupeville: 62.95%
9. Pullman: 62.90%
10. Edmonds: 61.84%

Summary: Hippies-by-the-sea (1,2,5,7,8); educated Seattle suburbs (3,10); college towns (6,9) and Olympia.

Its worst locales were:

1. Lynden: 20.70%
2. Pomeroy: 22.77%
3. Odessa: 23.56%
4. Davenport: 24.61%
5. Brewster: 26.35%
6. Kettle Falls: 27.47%
7. Napavine: 27.48%
8. Deer Park: 27.48%
9. Benton City: 28.09%
10. Colfax: 28.33%

Dutch Calvinists (1) and non-specific small towns (2-10).

Results for locations with more than 2,500 votes cast:

Aberdeen: 48.08%
Anacortes: 56.10%
Arlington: 41.78%
Bainbridge Island: 79.40%
Bellingham: 69.99%
Bonney Lake: 43.40%
Bremerton: 54.02%
Centralia: 38.41%
Edgewood: 45.96%
Edmonds: 61.84%
Ellensburg: 55.43%
Everett: 53.62%
Ferndale: 44.49%
Kennewick: 34.12%
Lacey: 54.75%
Lake Stevens: 48.50%
Lakewood: 46.85%
Longview: 45.81%
Lynden: 20.70%
Lynnwood: 54.30%
Marysville: 44.09%
Mill Creek: 51.88%
Monroe: 44.95%
Moses Lake: 31.68%
Mount Vernon: 51.64%
Mountlake Terrace: 59.16%
Mukilteo: 57.76%
Oak Harbor: 42.94%
Olympia: 72.56%
Pasco: 32.93%
Port Angeles: 54.97%
Port Orchard: 50.83% (with McCormick Woods annexation)
Port Townsend: 80.12%
Poulsbo: 52.21%
Pullman: 62.90%
Puyallup: 44.56%
Richland: 39.70%
Spokane: 46.86%
Spokane Valley: 35.38%
Sumner: 49.12%
Tacoma: 57.61%
Tumwater: 58.70%
University Place: 50.81%
Wenatchee: 39.02%
West Richland: 32.51%

Compared to Obama's margin performance, R-71's best showings were:

1. Ilwaco: +6.84%
2. Langley: +5.32%
3. La Conner: +2.44%
4. Bainbridge Island: +1.78%
5. Friday Harbor: +1.56%
6. Sequim: +1.50%
7. Republic: +1.15%
8. Anacortes: +0.63%
9. Richland: +0.22%
10. Dayton: +0.02%

Some appearances from the above lists.  Anacortes and Sequim are in R-71 friendly regions and have seen an influx of educated retirees.  Richland has always been more Republican than it is conservative, ditto Columbia County (Dayton).  Ilwaco (Pacific County) is curious, although Obama did lag there.  Republic (Ferry County) is just weird.

Worst swings against:

1. Coulee Dam: -51.34%
2. Kelso: -35.77%
3. Brewster: -35.34%
4. Quincy: -33.28%
5. Electric City: -32.72%
6. Cosmopolis: -32.56%
7. Fife: -31.66%
8. Odessa: -29.76%
9. Longview: -29.06%
10. Kettle Falls: -27.89%

If I hadn't mentioned this before, working-class "social welfare Democrats" -- white and otherwise -- didn't much care for R-71.

Points of curiosity:

* The biggest overall swing to R-71 was in the town of Krupp (Grant County), AKA Marlin, which voted for Mike Gravel in the Primary, crushed Obama in the general, and then was a tie for R-71.  Weird.

* So far, ignoring Krupp's tie, only one town (Wilkeson in Pierce County) voted for both McCain and Approve on R-71.

* College students liked R-71, they just didn't vote.  There were 100% Approve dorm precincts at Washington State University and Western Washington University, but turnout was below 20%.

* So far, the best precinct with over 100 votes was in Bellingham, south of Lowell Park below WWU (201-8 Approve, or 96.17%)

I-1033 stuff soon.

[CultureKing]

Evergreen wasn't at 100%?!!? I am shocked. Though I could see some voting against it simply because it didn't go far enough (as in it wasn't full marriage.)

[bgwah]

The WSU precincts didn't have many voters (3 and 6). Still, the Fairhaven College (WWU) managed to get 31/31, which I think is impressive.

[Alcon]

Evergreen wasn't at 100%?!!? I am shocked. Though I could see some voting against it simply because it didn't go far enough (as in it wasn't full marriage.)

There was an active "nothing but marriage" effort at TESC.