Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Yea, McGinn has clearly won this.

All this cycle I've really, really wanted to like McGinn, but I keep having nagging doubts about him. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

[Meeker]

Two humorous things to note from Pierce County results:

1) The News Tribune a few days before the election wrote a special editorial about how much they hated Puyallup City Council candidate John Alexander (they'd already endorsed his opponent earlier). Apparently people were listening in the final days, as Alexander's share has dropped from 48% on election night, to 45% a few days later, to around 42% today. Someone else can do the math as to how lopsided those later returns must have been. Alexander also received more than 50% of the vote in the primary, so this is rather pathetic.

2) Incumbent Steilacoom Town Councilmember Connie Aboubakr recieved less than 18% of the vote in her re-election bid. lol

[Alcon]

As of tonight's Pierce County update, Tacoma mayoral candidate Jim Merritt goes from effectively screwed to numerically screwed.  Strickland wins.

[Meeker]

Yea, it's not even in recount territory anymore.

Later ballots have been unquestionably more liberal this cycle - something which stands in stark contrast to 2008 IIRC. Wonder why.

[Meeker]

^^^ I hadn't really noticed Pierce County's numbers on R-71; just based that off King County's numbers and the two mayoral contests. Interesting.

Something else Tacoma related to note: 5 of the 8 members on the City Council next year will be new - Woodards, Lonergan, Campbell, and whoever replaces Strickland and Anderson. Only veterans will be Fey, Walker and Manthou.

[Alcon]

My theory is that Merritt made some pretty incredible inroads with people who are connected to politics, and name recognition diluted that effect with second- and third- wave ballots, even if second-wavers were more conservative.  I think she killed with third-wave voters because they're younger, more liberal and more effected by name recognition.  Kind of the perfect storm.

As for King County, I think there the ballots just get younger as time goes on.

I don't really know why Pierce's second-wave ballots tend to be so much more conservative (over 60% Reject on R-71!).  I really wish someone would track demographic trends by ballot wave time to try to explain this and why it never happens in King.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Pierce County zoomed in on Tacoma area (Election Night only, it's gotten a bit more Reject since)


See what I said about going past South 19th?

Agreed.  What are the white precincts?  Are those the privacy suppressed areas?  And is that purple precinct a tie?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Yea, McGinn has clearly won this.

All this cycle I've really, really wanted to like McGinn, but I keep having nagging doubts about him. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

McGinn seems to be a more genuine candidate but I shudder at the thought of having the Alaska Way and 520 issue reopened for another lost decade of wrangling.  And now that the entire Kemper Freeman endorsed slate has won in Bellevue watch for lawsuits and delays in keeping the East Link alignment out of downtown Bellevue.  This Seattle Process never fails to amaze me.

[bgwah]

Random question for Stranger Than Fiction and any other new members: Where do you guys live?? It would be interesting to know if you could provide any fresh, local perspectives on certain areas...

[Meeker]

I just realized Pierce flipped in supporting I-1033 (they did on election night, don't anymore). Was that just because of third-wave Alcon, or did the second-wave support it less than the first-wave as well?

[CultureKing]

Baird voted against the health care bill. Any chance there could be a challenge against him that someone like me could work for?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Random question for Stranger Than Fiction and any other new members: Where do you guys live?? It would be interesting to know if you could provide any fresh, local perspectives on certain areas...

Bellevue, WA currently.  Moved here from Fairfield County, CT a year ago.  Also lived in Upstate NY, WI and OH.  I'm still pretty up-to-date on Northeastern political developments.

[Alaska2392]

Um, can't really tell you too much interesting.  I've lived in Seattle my whole life.

[Alcon]

Welcome then...it's actually pretty interesting, because you're our first ever Seattle poster, as far as I know.

[bgwah]

Welcome then...it's actually pretty interesting, because you're our first ever Seattle poster, as far as I know.

lol, I'm pretty sure we had one in ~2004.

[Alcon]

Wow.  Normally when I hear "people are holding on to their ballots more this year" I think it's BS, but look at this:

http://www.co.pierce.wa.us/xml/abtus/ourorg/aud/elections/archives/gen09/hist.pdf

Three days after election day, the number of ballots that come in:

2001: 1,583
2003: 1,499
2005: 1,208
2007: 363
2009: 21,741

Dayum, what happened?  We're now on track for OK turnout.

And King County's estimates appear completely on-target -- 52% turnout, 56% in Seattle.  Same thing happened there, too.

[Meeker]

Only logical explanation I can come up with is that those are all insufficient postage ballots that the post office was holding on to.

[Alcon]

Only logical explanation I can come up with is that those are all insufficient postage ballots that the post office was holding on to.

That must be it.  So, about 15% of voters didn't understand that extra postage was required.  I'm actually somewhat impressed.  If I were less engaged, I would probably have been one of those 15%.  Whoever designed Pierce County's ballot return envelope (and the ballot requiring the extra postage, for that matter) should be shot.

[Meeker]

Only logical explanation I can come up with is that those are all insufficient postage ballots that the post office was holding on to.

That must be it.  So, about 15% of voters didn't understand that extra postage was required.  I'm actually somewhat impressed.  If I were less engaged, I would probably have been one of those 15%.  Whoever designed Pierce County's ballot return envelope (and the ballot requiring the extra postage, for that matter) should be shot.

Considering that RCV was the cause of that, and that RCV has been shot (electorally), I think you got your wish.

[Meeker]

Also means the county had to pay roughly $3500 in postage. HOW CAN WE AFFORD THAT W/ TEH BUDGET CRISIS?!?!?11?! CURSE YOU JAN SHARBO!!!11!!

[Meeker]

Alcon, do you have initial precinct abstracts for the universities? UW, WSU, Western, Central, Eastern, Evergreen, UPS, Gonzaga, Seattle U, Lewis & Clark and Whitman would all be interesting (although Central particularly because a friend asked me which spurred me to ask this).

[Meeker]

I'm not even going to try to defend the Lewis & Clark thing. Wow.

[bgwah]

WSU will probably have laughably terrible turn-out.

But most colleges will, I suppose.

[Meeker]

Mallahan officially conceded tonight. Quite a fascinating election.

If Mike McGinn does well as mayor I think he'll definitely be going farther.

[bgwah]

Mallahan officially conceded tonight. Quite a fascinating election.

If Mike McGinn does well as mayor I think he'll definitely be going farther.

...Going farther? Maybe King County Executive... But I really don't see him ever getting elected to a statewide office, and Ed Murray is the next Representative from the 7th Congressional District. So I kind of wonder what you mean here.

Following King County's update, R-71 is up to 53-47 Approve statewide and 68-32 in the county. I-1033 is 58-42 no statewide and 69-31 in the county.

McGinn leading Mallahan 51-48, and Constantine now destroying Hutchison 59-41 (lolz).