Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/2009-election-nightmare/Content?oid=2594606

I love The Stranger.

[Meeker]

Title change!

[Alcon]

The results from the all-important Student Mock Election have been posted by the Secretary of State. I-1033 failed 44-56 and R-71 was approved 59-41.

Tacoma with six times as many votes as Seattle?  Dayton (Columbia County seat, pop. 2,600) almost as many, and 72% Approve on R-71? best fake election ever!

This does show a weird overall pattern though, where I-1033 is sucking in Eastern Washington except for the Tri-Cities.  It seems feasible that might actually happen, will be interesting.

[Meeker]

SurveyUSA poll now has Constantine leading by 10, 53-43.

While it may not be the greatest night for Democrats nationally, it looks like things are going to go pretty well here at least.

[Alcon]

Final SUSA Seattle mayor poll:

Mallahan 45% (+2)
McGinn 43% (+7)

[Meeker]

Fact: I have called Pierce County Elections so many times in the past week that I've had to start using accents to hide that it's me.

Edit: Apparently, if what I hear is right, Pierce County turnout is up to 23.23%, which is a pretty good boost.   More significantly, this follows 2007's pattern more than 2001's, 2003's and 2005's.  My turnout estimator is now showing a low-end estimate of 41.6% and a high-end estimate of 49.2%.  The midrange estimator is 44% (go PierceCo if so), and the overall line track is actually toward the higher-end now.

I heard from folks again today that the post office is sitting on a crapload of ballots. They used the word "thousands" but I think they may be exaggerating.

[Alcon]

Fact: I have called Pierce County Elections so many times in the past week that I've had to start using accents to hide that it's me.

Edit: Apparently, if what I hear is right, Pierce County turnout is up to 23.23%, which is a pretty good boost.   More significantly, this follows 2007's pattern more than 2001's, 2003's and 2005's.  My turnout estimator is now showing a low-end estimate of 41.6% and a high-end estimate of 49.2%.  The midrange estimator is 44% (go PierceCo if so), and the overall line track is actually toward the higher-end now.

I heard from folks again today that the post office is sitting on a crapload of ballots. They used the word "thousands" but I think they may be exaggerating.

I'm not sure thousands is a huge exaggeration.  If it weren't for being so engaged in this campaign (and being a poll voter), I could definitely see myself having not understood the stamp instruction.  If turnout really is up to 23.23%, that's about 70,000 ballots...I could see it being thousands.

If it is, then it's hard to not see us beating 44%, and 50%+ is a very distinct possibility.  If only we had a bunch of secret hidden King County ballots, too.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

For my inaugural post, Dow Constantine regains a 10 point lead in the SurveyUSA final poll.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/183910.asp

[Alcon]

For my inaugural post, Dow Constantine regains a 10 point lead in the SurveyUSA final poll.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/183910.asp

Hey, welcome to the Atlas.  Are you a Washingtonian?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Yes sir, I have been following this board for a year now...just waiting on the perfect time to dive in!

[Alcon]

Welcome.  I won't ask more about where you're from to avoid being an Internet creeper, but it's always nice to have another contributor to our ridiculously OCD local politics thread.

[Meeker]

Yay, more Washingtonians. Welcome!

Also, it's time for the Washington-centric prediction competition!

I-1033
R-71
King County Executive
Seattle Mayor

For the daring...
Tacoma Mayor
Pierce County Auditor and Charter Amendments

For Alcon and I...

All Tacoma, U.P. and Lakewood races. Or else

[Alcon]

I-1033: I think this will fail pretty hard.  In fact, I'm looking for a result similar to Eyman's last effort.  No +13.

Ref-71: Ugh, I hate predicting things I have an emotional investment in.  I have information overload.  Meh...Approve +7.

King County Executive: SurveyUSA's likely voter screen kind of sucks until the last minute on Washington off-years.  Constantine +7.

Seattle Mayor: I don't understand how the polling is missing things on this.  A model that overestimates turnout (like SUSA did on the primary) should pick up the exact type of voter that leans McGinn.  But I can't shake the feeling that turnout structurally advantages Mallahan in picking up Nickels voters.  Mallahan +5.

Tacoma Mayor: In the end, I think this will come down to name recognition.  Strickland +8.

Pierce County Auditor: Will Baker will not win, or come even vaguely close to winning, no matter how much the TNT freaks.  More seriously, I just don't know.  I see first preferences looking something like Shabro 42%, Anderson 40%, Baker 18%, and then Baker's voters flow to...oh, screw this.  Anderson will do very well in Tacoma, but I have no idea what's going on elsewhere.

Pierce County Charter Amendments: Gahhh.  I have no idea how to predict this.  There's no demographic matches or anything.  I'm going to say all of them are exact ties.  To the vote.  Because I really have no idea.

Other races I know anything about...I think Woodards will win by about 12, Lonergan will win by about 8, Uskha-Hall will win by about 13, and Lakewood will continue being a terrible place although I hope it will be a terrible place that elects Sam Ross.  And that's all I know about Lakewood.

You know, on most of these races, I would have been a lot more confident in my predictions about a week ago.  I have little confidence all-around now.  But c'est la vie.

[Meeker]

Spokane ballot returns at 33.8% while King County is at... 24.01%. Oh dear

[ottermax]

Spokane ballot returns at 33.8% while King County is at... 24.01%. Oh dear

Spokane isn't all that bad. And Eastern Wa may be Republican but it's not that conservative, just look at the results of the death with dignity referendum last year.

[ottermax]

I-1033: Fail 41-59

R71: Pass 54-46 (this is my hope, but I won't be surprised if it is a total flip thanks to turnout)

KingCo. Exec: Constantine 52-48 (this may be totally lopsided and there is a slight possibility for Hutchinson to win, but it is King County...)

Seattle Mayor: McGinn 51-49 (this is definitely just me being hopeful)

Has anyone noticed an unusual number of people unopposed or is this really typical?

[RI]

Here are my probably terribly inaccurate prediction maps:

I-1033 loses 56-44, Ref 71 passes 53-47


Also, Constantine takes the King County Executive race 53-47, and I honestly know very little about the mayoral race.

[bgwah]

Definitely a few guesses that I could be completely wrong for on my county maps... The Portland media market in particular is always hard to peg.

Anyway, my I-1033 map. I say the vote goes 42.5-57.5


R-71... I say 54.5-45.5


SEATTLE MAYOR
54-46 Mallahan

KING COUNTY EXECUTIVE
54-46 Constantine

[Alcon]

I-1033 (No +16, although this is probably not actually No +16 )


R-71 (Approve +6 -- intentionally preparing myself for disappointment)

[Alcon]

that's *really* not a no +15 and i forgot a few eastern washington counties i was going to turn green but whatever.  Sign-waving at 6 am.

[Ogre Mage]

I-1033
Approve:  44%
Reject:  56%

R-71
Approve:  56%
Reject:  44%

King County Executive
Constantine:  55%
Hutchison:  44%

Seattle Mayor
Mallahan:  50%
McGinn:  48%

[CultureKing]

Definitely a few guesses that I could be completely wrong for on my county maps... The Portland media market in particular is always hard to peg.

Anyway, my I-1033 map. I say the vote goes 42.5-57.5


R-71... I say 54.5-45.5


SEATTLE MAYOR
54-46 Mallahan

KING COUNTY EXECUTIVE
54-46 Constantine

This is basically exactly what I think will happen. Though a two exceptions: Mallahan only wins 53-47 and R-71 passes 58-42 (yes I think it will be a big gap, hopefully I am right).

[bgwah]

My R-71 map is probably a bit more than a 9 point margin, but I dunno... I just made up a number for it. loololol

[Stranger Than Fiction]

My predictions:

R-71 Passes by 18%.  I think we will see strong performance from Eastern WA (Spokane, Whitman, Asotin and Okanagan) coupled with weak results in exurban/rural, working class counties in the West.  R-71 probably has a 50-50 chance of passing in Pierce Co and could come up short in Clark Co.   Having moved here from CT a year ago, my sense is that Eastern WA is quite libertarian leaning whereas the evangelical strength is strongest along the Columbia River from the Vancouver suburbs through Walla Walla.

King Co Executive: Dow Constantine by 15%.  Frankly, a Democrat winning fewer than 60% in King County is unacceptable. Flashback of the 2008 Gov race, when Gregoire-Rossi ran about even for two years before pulling ahead in the last days of the campaign.

Races also worth watching are on the Eastside.  Despite the massive inroads made by the Democrats on the federal and state level over the decade,  Bellevue (where I currently live) City Council is still dominated by permanent GOP "fixtures" backed by Kemper Freeman.  The Democrats have fielded a slate of candidates to run in all open positions.   The races to watch are Pos 2 - Vicki Orrico against Conrad Lee (the old crank who lost to Reichert in the primary) and Pos 7 - a 3-way open seat race between two GOP backed candidates and a Dem endorsed candidate.

[RI]

My R-71 map is probably a bit more than a 9 point margin, but I dunno... I just made up a number for it. loololol

Same here....