Washington state megathread

[Alcon]

Margin coded maps:



Seattle zoom:

[RI]

I don't suppose we could get a Snohomish County map?

[Alcon]

I'd really love to, as I expect it will be pretty interesting, but the one I have is with 2008 precincts.  (King only added two precincts since the version I have, Snoho changed dozens).  Don't suppose you have an in with David Fish at Snohomish County?  I can give it a shot, if not.

Edit: Figured out the Northgate Reject precinct.  A mix of Republicans, probably a lot from senior housing somewhere in there I think (it was only 68% Obama) and, strangely enough, a ton of Ethiopian names on the voter rolls.  Didn't know they were up there.

[Hash]

What are the precincts that voted NO in Seattle like?

[Alcon]

What are the precincts that voted NO in Seattle like?

From the top of the Seattle area:

- The two precincts near the county line (actually in Shoreline and not Seattle) are Cristwood, a Lutheran retirement home that leans slightly Republican.

- The precinct in North Seattle is the one I just described -- olds, unusually Republican whites in general, and apartment complexes full of Ethiopians for some reason.

- The one just south of downtown is a mix of Yesler Terrace (low-income development) and Little Saigon, and tends to be Republican-leaning in off-years.

- Of the cluster of precincts at the south end of the Seattle map, only the easternmost (the "L"-facing triangle) is in the city of Seattle.  It's like 50% Asian, 40% Black, 10% White.

[Meeker]

Here's something a little... curious. I got an e-mail tonight from Gregoire asking to donate money before the "legislative freeze" goes into affect. Seems to be an indicator she's at least considering running for a third term.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

The surprise announcement by Rep Brian Baird in WA-3 not to seek reelection promises to bring on one of the most watched and bitterly fought Congressional races for 2010.  The WA-3 has a PVI of even and was carried by Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2000 and 2004.  The district is anchored by booming Clark County, includes all of Skamania, Lewis, Pacific, Wahkiakum Counties before terminating at the Olympia suburbs of Thurston County.  Realistically, I could envision this district being represented by a Republican before WA-8 would.  Potential candidates for the open seat are:

Democrats:

Rep Deb Wallace (LD-17)
Sen Craig Pridemore (SD-49)

Republicans:

David Castillo
Jon Russell (Washougal Councilmember)
Dave Hedrick
Jaime Herrera (LD-18)

Question: Why is Clark County and SW Washington in general is so conservative-leaning?  Is it an outgrowth of the booming growth from suburbanites fleeing the socially liberal Portland suburbs?

[bgwah]

The surprise announcement by Rep Brian Baird in WA-3 not to seek reelection...

Unless you're Alcon!!

...promises to bring on one of the most watched and bitterly fought Congressional races for 2010.  The WA-3 has a PVI of even and was carried by Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2000 and 2004.  The district is anchored by booming Clark County, includes all of Skamania, Lewis, Pacific, Wahkiakum Counties before terminating at the Olympia suburbs of Thurston County.  Realistically, I could envision this district being represented by a Republican before WA-8 would.  Potential candidates for the open seat are:

Democrats:

Rep Deb Wallace (LD-17)
Sen Craig Pridemore (SD-49)

Republicans:

David Castillo
Jon Russell (Washougal Councilmember)
Dave Hedrick
Jaime Herrera (LD-18)

Question: Why is Clark County and SW Washington in general is so conservative-leaning?  Is it an outgrowth of the booming growth from suburbanites fleeing the socially liberal Portland suburbs?

Clark County is a tax haven for people seeking to avoid Oregon's state income tax and Washington's state sales tax. These kind of people aren't exactly Democratic.

Lewis County lynched a Wobbly back in the day and has been crazy-Republican ever since.

Cowlitz County does lean Democrat, though it loved Dino Rossi. Wahkiakum is small and weird. Pacific leans Democrat. Skamania is also just small and weird.


Oh, and interesting scenario... If we have 2 Democrats and 3+ Republicans in a swing district with a top two primary...

[Meeker]

Cheryl Crist (Baird's Democratic opponent in 2008 and 2004) is running as well... Rep. Jim Moeller and either Sen. Brian Hatfield or Rep. Brian Blake are thinking about getting in as well (article said "Rep. Brian Hatfield"; not sure how to interpret that)... haven't actually heard anything about Pridemore (or Brendan Williams for that matter) except for media mentions; nothing from the man himself.

[Alcon]

I'm pretty sure it's Sen. Brian Hatfield who is running, not Rep. Brian Blake, not that it really matters since they're effectively the same person anyway.

[RI]

Oh, and interesting scenario... If we have 2 Democrats and 3+ Republicans in a swing district with a top two primary...

I would love to see that. A D vs. D race would be hillarious, as unlikely as it is.

[CultureKing]

I will no longer have Baird as my congressman! Hopefully we don't do something stupid and get in someone conservative like Smith again... Or an idiot like Baird. Truthfully while he would likely have won re-election it would have been much closer because as of late he has made a number of bad decisions that have angered both the right and left. It will be interesting to see who gets through the primary.

[Meeker]

Pridemore's getting into the race

[bgwah]

Democrats need to be smart here--Run two major candidates and no more and hope the Republicans split the vote enough to doom themselves.

[Meeker]

Eh, looks like it's a little late for that. In addition to Crist announcing her intentions to run last week, another local party activist/labor type named Maria Rodriguez-Salazar is also entering the race. Crist is from Olympia while this lady is from the Vancouver area.

In addition, Denny Heck appears to be about ready to get into the race. Heck is a former State Senator and Chief of Staff to Booth Gardner as well as a failed candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 1980 or something. He's also the founder of TVW.

So we've already got two Vancouver-area legislators, one Olympia-area activist, one Vancouver-area activist/labor goon, and one old-timer type. Plus the possibility of one Olympia-area legislator getting in (Williams) and one Pacific Coast-area legislator getting in (Hatfield).

If we're not careful it's the Republicans who are going to sneak in two candidates

[Meeker]

Also, the King County Council attempted and failed to fill Constantine's seat. Democrats insisted on State Sen. Joe McDermott; Republicans insisted on retiring Seattle City Councilwoman Jan Drago.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010509996_newcouncilmember15m.html

I thought non-partisan races were going to make everything better and nicer!

[Meeker]

Triple post...

Conservative talk show host Lars Larson is apparently going to get into the WA-03 race. Will probably provide some good lulz

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This electoral system you guys have blows big time.

[CultureKing]

I am pretty sure that Denny Heck will get in, he is a family friend. Personally I would love to have Heck as my rep, he is probably the most experienced, confident and connected of the bunch. I am hoping to get a summer internship with the campaign. Though that makes a very large number of democrats.

[bgwah]

^ His motto can be "Vote Danny! Why the Heck not?"

[Alcon]

man.:

http://www.thenewstribune.com/topstory/story/1002887.html

[bgwah]

wtf is going on

[CultureKing]

Why have we had so many odd, violent crimes recently? Argh.

[MaxQue]

Why have we had so many odd, violent crimes recently? Argh.

Well, economical crisises raise the number of people who are killing their family and then kill themselves, but I don't see a reason for a raise in attacks on policemen.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Washington just may get that coveted 10th Congressional seat!

From the Secretary of State's office.

Lucky 13? WA population keeps on growing
by David Ammons | December 23rd, 2009

Washington 13th in censusNew Census projections show that we’re on the move in Washington — people moving in from other states and folks having babies.  In the past decade, we’ve grown by 13 percent and are now the 13th largest state!  And it could be Lucky 13 if we wind up gaining a new congressional seat.

We’ve grown by nearly 100,000 during the last year and — drum roll please — our new statewide population number is nearly 6.7 million. It’s 6,664,195, up over 770,000 from the April, 2000, number of 5,894,143.

A decade ago, we were the 15th most populous state.

Is our population growth enough to pick up a 10th congressional seat? It’s too early to say for sure, especially since the new national Census of 2010 still awaits, to give us the official numbers.  A year ago, the analysts at Election Data Services put us in the small cluster of states that could vie for the 435th and final congressional seat.  Oregon is another possible winner.  Some states are losing population relative to the rest of the country and others are growing faster than most of the rest of the USA.

The rejiggering of the 435 districts among the states, to make representation more equitable, is called “reapportionment.”

Once we know for sure how many districts we have, the US and state constitutions require us to “redistrict,” meaning to redraw our districts (both congressional and legislative) so that they are of equal population.

In Washington, happily, a voter-approved constitutional amendment assigns that duty not to the Legislature, but to a bipartisan citizen commission — two Rs and two Ds are the voting members and they appoint a fifth person to serve as non-voting chair.  Maps must be agreed to by at least three commissioners, and the Legislature’s vote is basically up-or-down.  This process already is under way at the staff level at the state Elections Division, and commissioners will be picked in 2011.  New districts take effect in 2012.