The idea that Trump is stuck at 27% or whatever is again just subjective wishful thinking. There's no evidence in polling that this is his ceiling.
Huh? Sure, he *could* end up getting a larger share of the vote than he currently polls, but Silver et al. are predicting that he won’t. Not sure how that squares with what you were talking about in your earlier post, suggesting that “Nate Silver told me” that “all the Trump supporters were going to magically stop supporting him“. Where does Silver say that *current* Trump supporters are going to defect away from him en masse? As far as I can recall, he’s said that he can see Trump staying somewhere in the 20% range or whatever during the primaries, but not winning the nomination.
Back in August, for example, Silver explicitly says that while he thinks Trump is going to lose, he’s agnostic about how it happens, and in what stage of the game victory slips away from him:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/Nothing that’s happening in the polls right now is contradicting that assessment from months ago. (Nor confirming it. It’s still early!)
