Quinnipiac national poll: D: Clinton 60% Sanders 30%; R: Trump 27% Rubio 17%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac national poll, conducted Nov. 23-30:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307

Dems

Clinton 60%
Sanders 30%
O’Malley 2%

GOP

Trump 27%
Rubio 17%
Carson 16%
Cruz 16%
Bush 5%
Fiorina 3%
Christie 2%
Kasich 2%
Paul 2%
Huckabee 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Pataki, Santorum 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Who leads among…?
white born again Evangelicals: Cruz/Trump tie
very conservative: Cruz
somewhat conservative: Rubio
moderate: Trump
most important issue = economy: Trump
most important issue = terrorism: Trump
most important issue = foreign policy: Rubio

Are there any candidates who you would definitely *NOT* vote for? (multiple response allowed, so adds up to more than 100%)

Trump 26%
Bush 21%
Christie 13%
Kasich 13%
Paul 13%
Fiorina 11%
Graham 11%
Pataki 11%
Carson 10%
Gilmore 9%
Huckabee 9%
Santorum 9%
Cruz 6%
Rubio 5%

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among own party…

Dems

Clinton 85/11% for +74%
Sanders 68/7% for +61%

GOP

Rubio 66/8% for +58%
Cruz 65/9% for +56%
Carson 67/13% for +54%
Huckabee 56/18% for +38%
Trump 64/27% for +37%
Fiorina 49/17% for +32%
Bush 53/34% for +19%
Christie 43/31% for +12%
Kasich 27/20% for +7%
Paul 32/36% for -4%

most important issue for Dems:

economy/jobs 43%
foreign policy 12%
health care 11%
terrorism 8%
climate change 8%
immigration 4%
federal deficit 3%
gun policy 3%
race relations 2%
abortion 2%

most important issue for GOP:

economy/jobs 26%
terrorism 24%
foreign policy 17%
immigration 8%
federal deficit 8%
gun policy 4%
health care 3%
abortion 3%
taxes 3%
climate change 0%
race relations 0%

[Mr. Morden]

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like Carson's support is splitting equally between TRUMP, Cruz and Rubio.

[/]

Farewell, Carson. I hope you had fun.

Prepare for Walker II. It is imminent.

[Lief 🗽]

1A. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

Total
Made Up: 32%
Might Change: 65%

Carson Supporters
Made Up: 26%
Might Change: 71%

Cruz Supporters
Made  Up: 33%
Might Change: 65%

Rubio Supporters:
Made Up: 23%
Might Change: 75%

TRUMP Supporters:
Made Up: 46%
Might Change: 53%

B-b-b-but I thought all the Trump supporters were going to magically stop supporting him and vote for a "serious" candidate?? Nate Silver told me so!!

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio edges ahead of Carson for 2nd place in the HuffPo trendline:

[Mr. Morden]

B-b-b-but I thought all the Trump supporters were going to magically stop supporting him and vote for a "serious" candidate?? Nate Silver told me so!!

I don't think so.  I think what Silver (and others, including me) have said is that they don't necessarily expect Trump to drop that much, because he doesn't need to drop that much in order to lose.  27% isn't going to win Trump the nomination.

In any case, Silver has been saying for a long time (including, again, today:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/ ) that someone polling at ~25-30% or whatever isn't a strong indication that they're going to win the nomination, because polling this far out is still only so predictive.  I wouldn't read a poll with 46% of a candidate's supporters claiming that they're not going to change their minds as rock solid.

[Eraserhead]

Not sure how much stock I'd put into a poll done in large part over Thanksgiving weekend.

[Skye]

B-b-b-but I thought all the Trump supporters were going to magically stop supporting him and vote for a "serious" candidate?? Nate Silver told me so!!

I don't think so.  I think what Silver (and others, including me) have said is that they don't necessarily expect Trump to drop that much, because he doesn't need to drop that much in order to lose.  27% isn't going to win Trump the nomination.

In any case, Silver has been saying for a long time (including, again, today:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/ ) that someone polling at ~25-30% or whatever isn't a strong indication that they're going to win the nomination, because polling this far out is still only so predictive.  I wouldn't read a poll with 46% of a candidate's supporters claiming that they're not going to change their minds as rock solid.

Shhh, that doesn't fit into Lief's narrative that Silver sucks.

[Lief 🗽]

The idea that Trump is stuck at 27% or whatever is again just subjective wishful thinking. There's no evidence in polling that this is his ceiling. A majority of Republicans have a favorable view of him, only about a quarter say they'd never vote for him, and he's consistently been competitive in head to head match ups.

[Pandaguineapig]

The idea that Trump is stuck at 27% or whatever is again just subjective wishful thinking. There's no evidence in polling that this is his ceiling. A majority of Republicans have a favorable view of him, only about a quarter say they'd never vote for him, and he's consistently been competitive in head to head match ups.

What are you going to do when Trump loses?

[Eraserhead]

The idea that Trump is stuck at 27% or whatever is again just subjective wishful thinking. There's no evidence in polling that this is his ceiling. A majority of Republicans have a favorable view of him, only about a quarter say they'd never vote for him, and he's consistently been competitive in head to head match ups.

What are you going to do when Trump loses?

What are you going to do when he wins?

[The Other Castro]

The idea that Trump is stuck at 27% or whatever is again just subjective wishful thinking. There's no evidence in polling that this is his ceiling. A majority of Republicans have a favorable view of him, only about a quarter say they'd never vote for him, and he's consistently been competitive in head to head match ups.

What are you going to do when Trump loses?

What are you going to do when he wins?

Go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for all this to blow over.

[RI]

The idea that Trump is stuck at 27% or whatever is again just subjective wishful thinking. There's no evidence in polling that this is his ceiling. A majority of Republicans have a favorable view of him, only about a quarter say they'd never vote for him, and he's consistently been competitive in head to head match ups.

What are you going to do when Trump loses?

Someone's still in the denial phase.

[Maxwell]

The idea that Trump is stuck at 27% or whatever is again just subjective wishful thinking. There's no evidence in polling that this is his ceiling. A majority of Republicans have a favorable view of him, only about a quarter say they'd never vote for him, and he's consistently been competitive in head to head match ups.

What are you going to do when Trump loses?

Lief will probably be fine with supporting the great Hillary Clinton, as will I.

[EliteLX]

1A. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

Total
Made Up: 32%
Might Change: 65%

Carson Supporters
Made Up: 26%
Might Change: 71%

Cruz Supporters
Made  Up: 33%
Might Change: 65%

Rubio Supporters:
Made Up: 23%
Might Change: 75%

TRUMP Supporters:
Made Up: 46%
Might Change: 53%

B-b-b-but I thought all the Trump supporters were going to magically stop supporting him and vote for a "serious" candidate?? Nate Silver told me so!!

Oh my GOD a whopping 12.3%!!! of the entire GOP primary electorate is locked in for TRUMP WHAT A BLAZING MAJORITY.

[Holmes]

Well, it's more than any other candidate, so...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Trump has more voters decided for him than low-energy losers Bush and Kasich have, period. Hell, if you "unskew" the poll, Trump blows away the rest of the field even more.

[EliteLX]

Well, it's more than any other candidate, so...

Annddd that says nothing more than the primary is still competitive if a candidate's max "locked in" percentage is 12%, so.. you're somewhat agreeing with my point saying such a thing.

Trump has more voters decided for him than low-energy losers Bush and Kasich have, period. Hell, if you "unskew" the poll, Trump blows away the rest of the field even more.

Never claimed otherwise, but the unskew point is silly.

Donald's ABSOLUTE MAX cap for GOP Nomination preference as of right now is 33%. Notice I said max, he hangs around the 23-28% range.

[Maxwell]

And look at this hilarious but very revealing figures:

Very Conservative Voters:
29% Cruz
25% Trump
15% Carson
11% Rubio

Somewhat Conservative Voters
26% Rubio
25% Trump
15% Carson
14% Cruz

Moderate/Liberal Voters
31% Trump
16% Carson
15% Rubio
7% Bush
(3% Cruz)

Compared to how he performs generally, Trump does okay, not that great with Conservatives - he loses to Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz among each Somewhat and Very conservative voters respectively. But Trump leads Carson (?!?) by a whopping 15 points among moderates. This seems to go against the narrative that moderate voters in the Republican party are appalled by Donald Trump that many on this forum seem to tout and are demanding guys like Kasich to save them.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, it's more than any other candidate, so...

Annddd that says nothing more than the primary is still competitive if a candidate's max "locked in" percentage is 12%, so.. you're somewhat agreeing with my point saying such a thing.

Trump has more voters decided for him than low-energy losers Bush and Kasich have, period. Hell, if you "unskew" the poll, Trump blows away the rest of the field even more.

Never claimed otherwise, but the unskew point is silly.

Donald's ABSOLUTE MAX cap for GOP Nomination preference as of right now is 33%. Notice I said max, he hangs around the 23-28% range.

No his max according to this very poll is 74%. Of course you Trump truthers will still find a way to argue even that is not enough.

[tmthforu94]

It concerns me that only 26% of voters would definitely rule Trump out.

[Maxwell]

More bad news for Sanders - not only does he trail 30, his voters are less decided (50 for sure-49 may change their mind) than Clinton's voters (62 for sure - 37 may change their mind).