Nevada GOP caucus **results thread**

[RI]

Up to 68% in Clark.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Small update pushes Paul up about 30-40 votes vs Gingrich and Santorum down a bit again. This might actually get interesting if things continue like this.

[rbt48]

If the Clark County vote yet to report is broken down as the part already in, Romney should exceed 50% by a little bit.

[bgwah]

Damn, looking like 49.3% or so Romney at this rate...

I want my two points!!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If it continues like this and the precincts are about the same size as now, it should look something like:

Romney: 49-50%
Gingrich: 21-22%
Paul: 19-20%
Santorum: 9-10%

[Torie]

The question is, are the remaining precincts bigger enough than what came before on average, for Paul to nab a delegate from Newt?  It is getting pretty tight now. Or if Paul hits 5.5 delegates, what happens then?  Or does he need to be closer to six, than Rick is to three, and take a delegate away from Rick?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Its very likely going to be between 400 votes, and depends entirely on the size of the remaining Clark precincts (the bigger, the better for Paul)

[Torie]

Oh Mittens took a fall in the last vote dump.  It does not look like the delegate counts will change now. Paul took a hit too, since it was his competitor Newt who poached from Mitt's total.  

[Meeker]

Ooooh... 10% more after 18 hours.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Mitt will finish below 50% and I'll get my extra point?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYjpE1I7XbE

[Torie]

So Mitt will finish below 50% and I'll get my extra point?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYjpE1I7XbE

Maybe, maybe not. If Mittens does better than what came before in Clark, or the precincts are larger on average, he can get back over it in a flash.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think it's at least likely that he'll underperform himself from four years ago, if only very slightly.

[RI]

70.1% of Clark in now.

[Torie]

Nothing much happened this time. This latest vote dump almost matched perfectly what came before.

[Joe Republic]

Looks like most of Summerlin is yet to report...

[Torie]

Looks like most of Summerlin is yet to report...

I assume that is Mittens country no, as in higher income than the norm for Clark County, and rather considerably higher? I really don't know Vegas neighborhoods that well I admit.

[RI]

73.6% of Clark in.

[Joe Republic]

Looks like most of Summerlin is yet to report...

I assume that is Mittens country no?

Judging by the map I've spent most of the night putting together, yes.

But either way it's GOP country in general, so those should be some big precincts.

[RI]

Looks like most of Summerlin is yet to report...

I assume that is Mittens country no?

Judging by the map I've spent most of the night putting together, yes.

But either way it's GOP country in general, so those should be some big precincts.

Do you have a map with the new precincts?

[Torie]

Well unless Summerlin is still out, and Mittens will romp there, it looks increasingly likely that BRTD will get "his point" and that Mittens will be held below 50% (still far from certain however). It is clear that the delegate totals are pretty much settled at this point I would think.

[Joe Republic]

Do you have a map with the new precincts?

Only for the Vegas metro, but admittedly I haven't really looked for the rest of the state:

http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/Depts/election/Documents/Maps/Current/Precincts_3X4.pdf

I'm already working on the results map, in case you had the same idea.

[RI]

Do you have a map with the new precincts?

Only for the Vegas metro, but admittedly I haven't really looked for the rest of the state:

http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/Depts/election/Documents/Maps/Current/Precincts_3X4.pdf

I'm already working on the results map, in case you had the same idea.

I'm thinking of doing a statewide map when all the results are in.

[ilikeverin]

Well unless Summerlin is still out, and Mittens will romp there, it looks increasingly likely that BRTD will get "his point" and that Mittens will be held below 50% (still far from certain however).

YES!  UNDER 50%!  GOGOGOGO!

[Torie]

Well unless Summerlin is still out, and Mittens will romp there, it looks increasingly likely that BRTD will get "his point" and that Mittens will be held below 50% (still far from certain however).

YES!  UNDER 50%!  GOGOGOGO!

If that transpires, I am going to blame Paulite fraud in the Nighttime Nightmare Caucus myself, screw the maths if the numbers don't work to support that thesis.

[J. J.]

Mitt, followed by Mork, with Paul closely behind.