VRA and majority-minority districts

[muon2]

The first thing is to apply the Gingles test to an area: 1) is there a compact area where a single minority could make up over half the voting population; 2) does the minority tend to vote as a bloc for preferred candidates; and 3) does the white majority tend to vote as a bloc against the minority's preferred candidates. If the area passes the test the VRA requires that a district be drawn where the minority can elect the candidate of their choice, and that needn't be at 50% VAP if it can be shown that through primaries or by crossover voters the minority is likely to prevail. If multiple districts could be drawn for the minority, then one has to look at the totality of the circumstances including the rough proportionality of the minority to the total voting population.

If the Gingles test doesn't apply, then the mappers are not bound by the VRA to keep the minority intact.

[muon2]

OK, so I assume if Democrats were to split up a compact and electorally unified black electorate into separate "coalition" districts, they could argue that there is no requirement for a majority-minority district because the third Gingles condition would in this instance not apply seeing as the white majority does not vote as a bloc that denies blacks the right to select their preferred (Democratic) candidate?

They might be able to do that in cities where the white voters are overwhelmingly Dem and have shown a willingness to support the preferred minority candidate. That case has been successfully made in places like LA and Chicago, but it requires real data analysis to stand up. In other areas the best the Dems can do is show that a coalition allows a district to be slightly less than 50% minority and still perform for that minority. The new VA CDs are examples of that.

[muon2]

There are big cities where the districts surrounding the minority districts are still solid D. For instance look at IL-3 and IL-5 surrounding IL-1, 2, 4, and 7. IL-8, 9 and 11 are also solid D and make up most of the band after IL-3 and 5. Even without a Dem gerrymander, those areas would still produce Dem districts. Without the VRA, it's not clear they would produce as many minority districts.