OBAMA'S APPROVAL RATING MUCH WORSE THAN IT LOOKS
Proving once again that he is one of the nation’s most astute political analysts, the Washington Examiner's Michael Barone makes clear that President Barack Obama may be in more political trouble than he or many of his allies are prepared to publicly admit.
An alumnus of U.S. News & World Report, Barone deconstructs the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and he shows that Obama’s negative 45 percent-48 percent job approval figures are deceptive and that the president is far weaker politically than the numbers suggest.
The poll, which admittedly is a snapshot of public opinion, shows the president has a 91 percent approval rating among black voters. “A little back of the envelope arithmetic,” Barone writes, “suggest that Obama’s job rating among the 88 percent or 89 percent of non-black respondents is about 39 percent positive and 54 percent negative.”
This article was written June 29, 2010. http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2010/06/29/Obamas-Approval-Rating-Much-Worse-Than-It-Looks
Obama's current approval rating: 47.9% (RCP average).
Four months later, a crimson tide election.
Four months from now, what's to change that?
Not really a change, just the simple fact that Romney's approvals have generally been considerably lower than Obama's. Over at RCP, their average of Obama's approvals is currently 51.5 to 44.4 (+7.1) while Romney's is 43.6 to 43.9 (-0.3).
Obama's approval advantage over Romney isn't as high among the polls that just use likely voters. so it isn't all bleak for Romney. But it is likely to be a bleak campaign season for people in the swing states. Romney will likely go heavily negative to keep turnout low. A high turnout election does not favor Mitt.
