Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

Plan B

[emmettmark]

Plan B

This looks awesome! It's a shame you couldn't be a commission member this cycle!

[Krago]

This looks awesome! It's a shame you couldn't be a commission member this cycle!

I don't have the patience to deal with idiots like me.

[Krago]

Another update to my proposed map of Canada.

https://bit.ly/Canada343

In Saskatchewan:
- Regina--Lewvan and Regina--Qu'Appelle would swap neighbourhoods to make a north/south divide within the city instead of an east/west one

[Krago]

Another update to my proposed map of Canada.

https://bit.ly/Canada343

In Manitoba:
- I couldn't figure out the boundary that Niki Ashton and James Bezan wanted to use, so I just moved everything north of Fairford (inclusive) into the Churchill seat.
- I put Dugald into the same riding as Oakbank up the road, in exchange for the area south of McLeod and east of Henderson that is currently part of Elmwood--Transcona.

In Saskatchewan:
- There are two completing plans to divide Saskatoon among three federal ridings.
- The Conservative plan would maintain the existing riding boundaries and cross the South Saskatchewan River north of Circle Drive.
- The NDP plan would cross the South Saskatchewan River south of Circle Drive, to put as much of the 'inner city' as possible in the new Centre seat.

Here are the 2021 Federal results by polling division, and Indigenous population shares, for each of the plans (blue lines = Conservative, orange lines = NDP).

[Hatman 🍁]

So it looks like the NDP plan actually splits up the Indigenous population? Are they trying to use Indigenous population as a reason to have Saskatoon Centre exist?

[Krago]

The Conservatives are trying to frame the NDP plan as a partisan gerrymander, while declaring their plan as being supported by members of the community, including the indigenous community.

https://www.ourcommons.ca/content/Committee/441/PROC/Reports/RP12251658/441_PROC_Rpt28_PDF/441_PROC_Rpt28-e.pdf

[DL]

When will there be final decisions on all these maps and we know what we will be dealing with in the next election (depending of course on the timing of the next election)

[Krago]

Mo’ objections, mo’ updates.

https://bit.ly/Canada343

In Alberta:
- George Chahal doesn’t like cutting off the NE corner of the Saddle Ridge neighbourhood. There are too many people to just add it to Calgary—McKnight, but a few ripple effects later (Harvest Hills, Rundle, Douglasdale) and Calgary is fixed.
- Gerald Soroka and friends want to smother Jasper—Banff—Canmore in its sleep. My alternative should make them much happier.
- I have moved Mackenzie County from Grande Prairie to Peace River--Westlock.  I will leave it up to the rednecks on this website to decide if it is an improvement.

[Poirot]

The first hearing on the Quebec map was after the Alberta hearing. It was on eastern Quebec with a panel of the four MPs of the region from Montmagny to Iles-de-la-Madeleine.

Objection to the area going from 4 to 3 ridings. It would make access to the MP and services to citizens more difficult, less representation. For example MP for Gaspésie - Iles-de-la-Madeleine tries to get to the islands 4 times a year.  Need to go by plane but bad weather makes liaison uncertain. To go by ferry you need to go to Souris PEI.

Gaspésie - Les Iles MP made a suggestion of removing MRC La Matanie from the Gaspésie riding and put it in the Rimouski riding.  Reason would be because it is in the administrative region of Bas-St-Laurent. The MP for the current Avignon-La-Mitis etc. whicj is being erased seemed surprised and said when asked if they had to choose to which of the new ridings proposed they would like to join local people prefered Gaspésie. I think removing La Matanie from Gaspésie would put the riding at -20% from quotient. Maybe the Liberals are figuring keeping La Matanie in Gaspésie make it more difficult to hold it.

There was a name modification proposed by MP from Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup. The new riding name decided by the commission is Montmagny—Témiscouata—Kataskomiq. Témiscouata because its a region added to the riding and the easternmost part of the riding and Kataskomiq because of adding native words.

Rivière-du-Loup was removed and it's the biggest city and MRC. He proposes the name Côte-du-Sud - Rivière-du-Loup - Kataskomiq - Témiscouata. The parts of the riding going west to east in order. Côte-du-Sud covers Montmagny, L'Islet and Kamouraska.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why the heck does the ferry go to PEI anyway? Are there no good ports in Gaspe?

[DL]

Why the heck does the ferry go to PEI anyway? Are there no good ports in Gaspe?

I've wondered about that myself. But if you look on a map the islands are closer to PEI than they are to Gaspe - but still seems odd

[Poirot]

I don't know if it's an economic issue, it's cheaper to move on land as much as possible versus taking more time to travel by sea.

I found an article on possible alternatives for a ferry from Quebec to Iles-de-la-Madeleine if interprovincial travel to the PEI ferry was not allowed during the pandemic. The closest Quebec option was Matane and it would be at least 20 hours trip compared to 5 from PEI. Other ports don't have an access ramp for vehicles. Chandler would be closest with 8 hours but Transports Canada closed it in 2016. I think the wharf was damaged and cost to repair it is 60 million. Gaspé didn't have the equipment but maybe there could be an emergency access ramp build. 

[Poirot]

The committee to study Quebec map met on March 28th. The first part is about Saguenay Lac St-Jean and Côte-Nord regions. Three MPs presenting were from Manicouagan, Lac-St-Jean and Jonquière.

Manicouagan is about the name proposal. The commission settled on Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Uapashke. After consultation with people in the riding and the Innus, the name the MP proposes is Côte-Nord - Nitassinan or Nitassinan - Côte-Nord. I hope the name changes because it is much easier to write and shorter!

In the final report the commission created a Jonquière-Alma riding. The commission seems to be set on having three equal ridings in the region over community of interest or regional belonging. It always put some part of Lac-St-Jean with Saguenay. Seems like Jonquière-Alma from the final report is even more disliked than the first proposal. People fought to dismantle it in the last redistribution process. Between the two maps the two Bloc MPs prefer the first proposal over the final report. Alma is the biggest town in Lac-St-Jean. When time was almost up a Conservative MP said something like the Chicoutimi MP did not object to the final report map. He was not there. Maybe it was to remove impression that three regional MPs object to the final report. (or the Conservatives are planning to approve the final report map).

The second part of the session was on Montreal.

[Poirot]

Five MPs are present for the Montreal panel:
1 NDP (Rosemont - La Petite-Patrie) and 4 Liberals (Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun,  Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Ile-des-Soeurs and Hochelaga)

MPs objections about the final report names. Trying to shorten names doesn't seem to be working.

Commission chose the name Dorval—Lachine. For the MP removing LaSalle is unacceptable, says half the population are in LaSalle. Supported by MP of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun.

The name LaSalle—Verdun: Mp wants Emard back in the name. Says Ville-Emard is 35% of electors. There are three distinct parts of the riding. He is supported by the Sud-Ouest borough mayor.

Hochelaga: MP would like the name Hochelaga - Rosemont-est. Eastern part of Rosemont is part of Hochelaga since 1988. Wants to avois confusion. People living in that part of Rosemont contact the MP for Rosemont instead of Hochelaga.

Alexandre Boulerice (Rosemont) spoke about neighboroods, identities, artificial map boundaries. The big increase of population in the Ville-Marie riding had a domino effects on others with bad effects and lost community of interest. The process ends with surprises, with changes in final map that were not proposed or discussed before.

His three issues: part of Plateau Mont-Royal, he calls it petit Laurier (near Laurier park) are now put in Outremont. People don's consider they are in Outremont. Part of Saint-Henri neigborhood is moved from Ville-Marie Sud-Ouest to be put in the Westmount riding. They don't associate with Westmount. And the old Montreal / old port district that is being put in Laurier-Ste-Marie.
Interesting the Laurier-Ste-Marie MP was not there to defend his riding, maybe he was busy or the final report makes the riding easier for the Liberals.

Marc Miller of Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Ile-des-Soeurs is objecting to the northern boundary of the riding. He would lose part of Saint-Henri, between Ville-Marie highway and Notre-Dame street, that would go to Westmount riding. It cuts the neighborood in half. The highway is a physical barrier. It would be more confusing and difficult to get services for those people moved. For identity and community, supported by Sud-Ouest borough mayor, wants all Saint-Henri to be kept in Ville-Marie.

How don't know how many people it represents but the commission might feel doing that the riding gets a little too big. Perhaps it could put more of downtown in Westmount riding to counterbalance.

[Krago]

Great analysis.

Has anyone tried to do a ridingbuilder for downtown Montreal?  I started creating an alternative map but the area is a demographic minefield for the ignorant and unwary ("Mon Dieu!  You can't move that line!  What were you thinking?").

[Krago]

I've added seven Montreal ridings to my Alternatives map.

https://bit.ly/Canada343

By moving just three neighbourhoods:
- Saint-Henri (17,299)
- part of LaSalle, nw of the Canal de l'Aqueduc (5,617)
- Saint-Pierre (5,617)

I was able to minimize changes to existing seats and still keep all ridings within 10% of the provincial quotient.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe drop Émard from the name? I don't mind triple-barrelled names, but  I think 4 names is way too long. Émard is in the St-Henri section of the provincial riding of St-Henri-Ste-Anne, so you can make the argument it's not needed if St-Henri is part of the name.

[MaxQue]

Maybe drop Émard from the name? I don't mind triple-barrelled names, but  I think 4 names is way too long. Émard is in the St-Henri section of the provincial riding of St-Henri-Ste-Anne, so you can make the argument it's not needed if St-Henri is part of the name.

It would be a wierd argument, as St-Henri and Émard is separated by the Échangeur Turcot and the Lachine Channel.

[Poirot]

I don't mind triple-barrelled names, but  I think 4 names is way too long.

Prepare to be disappointed. I've listened to another committee session and there are proposals with four names. I've taken notes (playing the reporter) and should write about it tomorrow.

[Poirot]

The meeting that took place March 30.

MP for Montarville suggest to modify the name to be more representative of the population. It would also differentiate from the provincial Montarville riding (which is Boucherville and Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville). The federal riding is Sainte-Julie-Saint-Bruno, Saint-Basile-le-Grand, a tiny part of Saint-Hubert (Longueuil). The commission has added part of Carignan - it has non-contiguous territory).

The MP proposes Mont-Saint-Bruno - L'Acadie. Mont-Saint-Bruno is a geographic element shared by Saint-Bruno, Saint-Julie, Saint-Basile. They are around it and it's visible. To make Carignan welcomed (the city objected), he adds L'acadie which is the name of a river that goes through Carignan and part of Saint-Basile.

I'm not sure of using Acadie because it could create confusion or be misleading if people think it's in New Brunswwick. And it's not that big of a river.

Then MP for Salaberry-Suroît is suggestion a 4 name riding. In the proposal the name was Salaberry-Suroît-Soulanges.  In the final report the name is Beauharnois-Soulanges. She says it's a name that was not up for discussion in public consultation. She proposes: Beauharnois-Salaberry-Soulanges-Huntingdon.

Beauharnois, Soulanges and Huntingdon are names of three provincial ridings.

The MP for Mirabel wants to take back Sainte-Anne-des-Plaines that was in Mirabel in the first proposal but removed from Mirabel in the final report. It's now in Rivière-du-Nord. According to him it breaks the community of interest and sense of belonging between the two in the lower Laurentians. He listed shared community organizations, local newspapers, that they are in the same schoolboard. He has letters of support from the mayor of Saint-Anne-de-Plaines and the provincial MNA.

In the final report the population is 113 514 for Rivière-du-Nord and 100 598. Sainte-Anne is about 15 000 people so the numbers would be reversed but with a little more gap. MP says Rivière-du-Nord has more growth in the future.

[MaxQue]

The meeting that took place March 30.

MP for Montarville suggest to modify the name to be more representative of the population. It would also differentiate from the provincial Montarville riding (which is Boucherville and Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville). The federal riding is Sainte-Julie-Saint-Bruno, Saint-Basile-le-Grand, a tiny part of Saint-Hubert (Longueuil). The commission has added part of Carignan - it has non-contiguous territory).

The MP proposes Mont-Saint-Bruno - L'Acadie. Mont-Saint-Bruno is a geographic element shared by Saint-Bruno, Saint-Julie, Saint-Basile. They are around it and it's visible. To make Carignan welcomed (the city objected), he adds L'acadie which is the name of a river that goes through Carignan and part of Saint-Basile.

I'm not sure of using Acadie because it could create confusion or be misleading if people think it's in New Brunswwick. And it's not that big of a river.

Then MP for Salaberry-Suroît is suggestion a 4 name riding. In the proposal the name was Salaberry-Suroît-Soulanges.  In the final report the name is Beauharnois-Soulanges. She says it's a name that was not up for discussion in public consultation. She proposes: Beauharnois-Salaberry-Soulanges-Huntingdon.

Beauharnois, Soulanges and Huntingdon are names of three provincial ridings.

The MP for Mirabel wants to take back Sainte-Anne-des-Plaines that was in Mirabel in the first proposal but removed from Mirabel in the final report. It's now in Rivière-du-Nord. According to him it breaks the community of interest and sense of belonging between the two in the lower Laurentians. He listed shared community organizations, local newspapers, that they are in the same schoolboard. He has letters of support from the mayor of Saint-Anne-de-Plaines and the provincial MNA.

In the final report the population is 113 514 for Rivière-du-Nord and 100 598. Sainte-Anne is about 15 000 people so the numbers would be reversed but with a little more gap. MP says Rivière-du-Nord has more growth in the future.

L'Acadie is also stupid because there is a provincial riding of the same name, in Montreal (named after a boulevard, this time).

I tend to agree that Ste-Anne-des-Plaines is not in the same suburb/exurb tier as the rest of Rivière-du-Nord.

[Poirot]

There was a second panel of Quebec MPs on March 30th. It's a joint proposition from the three MPs of three different parties. Ridings of Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel, Mégantic-L'Érable and Compton-Stanstead.

Mégantic-L'Érable would like to receive three municipalities the commission put in Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel: Villeroy which is part of MRC L'Érable, Val-Alain and Leclercville in MRC Lotbiniere. It would split MRC Lotbiniere in two ridings instead of three. The MRC hopes to be reunited in the next redistribution.

In the final report Mégantic-L'Érable received three municipalities from Compton-Stanstead: Weedon, Lingwick and Scotstown. I think they are part of MRC Haut-St-François. It represents 3767 people. Keeping them in Compton-Stanstead for community of interest, attachment to the Estrie region and organizations around the MRC Haut-Saint-François.

Now for the name. Mégantic-L'Érable is a long territory, from the St. lawrence river to the US border. It covers 4 MRC. So people feel they are in the riding the name proposed by the MP is Appalaches- Mégantic - l'Érable - Lotbinière.

For Bécancour's name, the commission proposed Bécancour-Saurel-Odanak. Odanak is a Abenaki community in the riding but there is a second one, Wolinak. The communities prefer Alnônbak whichs is Abenaki in their own language. Nicolet was erased from the name but it was not a topic of the consultation. It's a name and community with 350 years history. The proposal is Alnônbak- Bécancour- Nicolet- Saurel.

It was mentioned a few times that the House committee should think about the role of rural MPs and representation and maybe legislate for the next redistribution. An MP suggested there could be a second round of consultation for major changes.

[Krago]

I've added nine Quebec ridings to my Alternatives map.

https://bit.ly/Canada343

- Sainte-Anne-des-Plaines was added to Mirabel.
- Saint-Colomban was swapped for Sainte-Sophie.
- Lotbinière MRC was split between two ridings instead of three.
- Lévis was divided along the arrondissement boundaries.
- Compton-Stanstead was made whole again.

P.S.  I also renamed Carleton as Stittsville--South Carleton.  Because I can.

[Krago]

“Dissecting Redistribution”

https://cspg-gcep.ca/pdf/seminar_2023-04-flyer.pdf

It's coming up tomorrow morning.

For those of you who like this sort of thing, this is the sort of thing you like.

For those of you who don't want to pay $150 to stream it on Zoom, type "student" in the promo code box and get a ticket for forty bucks.