Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, obviously the next big political test for Renzi (and everyone else) is coming up now, with the Regional elections. I think you guys have already started discussing them at great length, but I'll just reiterate that the two biggest races to watch will be Liguria (where a splinter candidate from the PD's left might split enough votes to allow Berlusconi's right-hand man to pull it off) and Campania (where the PD candidate, De Luca, is a very popular mayor of Salerno but is technically ineligible due to having been found guilty on abuse of office charges). These are the purest tossups.

Apart from those, there is Veneto, where the incumbent Lega candidate is favored to win reelection (though an upset is possible), and Puglia, where the very popular mayor of Bari, Michele Emiliano, is running to succeed Nichi Vendola. The right is very fractured there (it's the home of Berlusconi's main internal opponent, Raffaele Fitto), and barring a surprise, the left should hold its ground.

Toscana, Umbria and Marche should all stay to the PD as well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Luckily, Tony I got a free Economist this morning which was discussing in detail the Renzi education plan (have a wild guess what the Economist made of it )

Basically the non wooly stuff is:

€4 billion in buildings
€500 euros per year for every teacher for books, software, museums etc.
Head teachers more powers to reward cronies good teachers (curtailed after complaints)
Allow parents to allocate parts of their salaries to their children's schools (dropped after complaints)
ICreased in public funding for Catholic schools

And the big one that has the unions antsy, taking an aim at part-time teachers. It seems two thirds of them will be promoted (100,000) but 50,000 will be made unemployed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's pretty helpful, thanks!

Doesn't look too bad to me, in all honesty. Particularly since the subsidy to private schools has been scrapped, that was the most problematic aspect IMO.

It's pretty unfortunate for part-time teachers, but I can understand that not all of them could be hired. 100,000 more tenured teachers will make a huge difference.

[Senator Cris]

Polls can't be published in Italy in the fifteen days preceding the elections and so there are some conclaves, cycling races or street racing horses with the camouflaged data. The latest data are confirming a close race in Liguria and Campania. Veneto is still leaning to a CD hold and the race is tightening in Umbria.

[SPQR]

The school reform has been summarized pretty well by you guys.
IMHO,it's a perfectly legitimate reform, going a loooong way towards solving the issue of the part-time teachers, also because it changes the situation structurally (ensuring there won't be hundreds of thousands of new part-time ones a few years from now).

Except for hardcore Renzi haters, the reform is liked also in the public opinion. As usual, it's the unions which are making a big fuss, especially the teachers. Since they are a relevant part of PD's electorate,Renzi has had to make some concessions.






As for the regional elections: yeah,2 semi-pure tossups (Liguria and Campania) and one race which might be a surprise,Umbria.
PD lost in Perugia last year,because much like in Livorno it had governed it for decades and lost touch with the citizens. Now polls show a 3-5 points advantage for PD's candidate, Catiuscia Marini,but I really don't feel comfortable about it. I have friends there who are long-time PD supporters but will just stay at home,since they are tired of the regional party and leadership.

[Andrea]

I think you are reffering to teachers with fixed lenght contracts rather than part-time teachers.

and partly to hire new teachers.

the whole teachers' hiring system in Italy is quite byzantine.
I don't even know how translate some terms....I will try to explain

Right, the first thing is the difference between "organico di diritto" and "organico di fatto". It's basically the workforce needed.
Every year the ministry sets the staffing level needed. However the hirings with permanent contracts are done only on the "organico di diritto". The national total of "organico di diritto" was pre-fixed by Mrs Gelmini and the law was never changed. They can move places from primary to secondary schools, from one region to another, but they can't exceed the total pre-fixed. It is 600,839 teachers for  curricular teachings. Then there are "supporting" teachers ("posti di sostegno") for children with special needs (with a certification). The staffing levels for supporting teachers is set at 90,032 after Mrs Carrozza (under Letta's government increased them).
However, schools could need more teachers for various reasons. For ex they usually have 3 classes but there're more requests this years and therefore a 4th class is created. Then there'are the so-called "spezzoni" (number of hours lower than those needed for a full-time place) which can't be combined with hours from other schools. Teachers can ask for part-time and so there're hours to be covered by somebody else. The vice head-teacher can opt out some regular classes hours. Etc.
Hence every year, usually during the summer, the minister then grants the so-called "Organico di Fatto". It's basically the workfoce they really need for that year. Teachers hired on "organico di fatto" have contracts lasting until 30 June.

In recent years when setting up the hirings with permanent contracts they never totally covered all the available places on "organico di diritto" but only a % of them.
Teachers hired with fixed term contracts on "organico di diritto" places have contracts from September to 31 August.

One of the problems for the government is that some people have worked for more than 36 months with fixed term contracts. EU already sentenced against Italy for such practice. However you need to have worked with a fixed term contract on a vacant job place (difference between "posto disponibile" and "posto vacante e disponibile").

Then there's the whole saga on which "rankings" (graduatoria) people are hired from. There are
graduatoria di merito" (compiled after a "concorso")
graduatoria ad esaurimento, ex graduatoria permamente (divided into 3 different sections. Sections 1 & 2 have run out in the great majorities of provinces and teachings...ah, wait, for musical instruments there's also a 4th section!)
graduatorie di istituto (divided into 3 different sections). First section included teachers who in GAE. Second section included people not in GAE but with a teaching certified qualification. Section 3 is everybody else without a special qualification (just with the degree required for that teaching)

"Graduatoria di merito" (GM) is regional. Graduatorie ad Esaurimento (GAE) are provincial. Graduatoria di Istituto (GI) are compiled at school level.
Hirings with permanent contracts are made 50% from GM and 50% from GAE.

Annual fixed term contracts have given by the Ministry provincial office using GAE. If GAE is finished the places are returned to the schools and they fill them using GIs.
All short term contracts are made directly by the schools using GIs.

GAE are closed (by Fioroni). You can't join them anymore. All people in GM were entitled to join them along with people with a teaching qualification taken according various ways set up by Education ministry until 2007.

Renzi's reform wants to abolish difference between "organico di diritto" e "organico di fatto" creating a new "organico dell'autonomia". Each school should set a 3 years long plan with their educational offer and asking for the teachers they need to fullfill it. So they can ask for more teachers than those they need just to fill the curricular hours but also those to create new projects. Obviously they should ask for teachers they think they have the competences needed for the projects they have in mind. That was the original spirit of the reform

At the same time Renzi promised in the first consultation documents about the education reform to close the GAE hiring everybody in them!
 
Problem is that GAE teachers could not match schools needs. There are lots of economy and civil right teachers in them, possibly too many. Too many teachers in Southern provices and not enough in Northerhn lists. There are basically no-body left to be hired from GAE to teach SPanish but lots of people waiting to be hired for German. Too few math teachers in the North, too many primary teachers in Naples. Etc

So how they will manage to match people with school needs (without forcing schools to "ask" for a music teacher even if they really wanted a maths one!) will be critical...and it will depend on future actuative decrees.

Who is protesting?
Some people from GIs, those who teach teachings without people left in GAE (Spanish, Maths in North of Italy) who have worked pretty consistently in the last few years and they want to be hired before the bottom place of the list for music teachers in Caltanisetta.

I didn't tell you something...every 3 year GAE are opened...actually not really opened to others but just to allow people in them to switch to another province..
lots of people from Southern Italy have prefered to be in GAE in North Italy. Doing so they got a permanent contract earlier. After 3 years they can ask to be moved to another province if there're availables places there. If they now hire the whole GAE...those teachers will never manage to go back to their previous home. However govenment have changed the original plan allowing special mobility on the new "organico dell'autonomia" next year (the mobility for 2015 is already under way on the old "organico di diritto").
A mess in waiting could be how to deal with new hirings being done before mobility (it's always the opposite).

Another thing...teachers are currently assigned to schools based on their points in the ranking...hence the one at the top will decide the scholl he/she prefers and so on...the last one will take the one left.
With the new powers to head teachers....hired (at provincial level this year, but they aims to create subprovincial area to manage them) teachers can apply to the school they prefer, but it will be the head-teachers who will decide the one joining the school (choosing process taking place every 3 years). So first the ministry decide how many places province X need for teaching Y ...then they hire with permanent contracts enough teachers to cover that number....then head-teachers will pick up the one they prefer within this list of hired teachers...no-one will be left without a school in the end if you are hired.

I hope my post makes sense....it's really a quite weird system which needed to be reformed. However I am not sure if even this reform will end up creating a new messing system!

[SPQR]

Good technical explanation. I myself learnt some new things
Anyway yes,I obviously meant fixed-term workers rather than part-time ones.

[Senator Cris]

The Antimafia Commission released the list of the unpresentable candidates. Between these candidates there is Vincenzo De Luca, the PD's candidate in Campania, but he is not accused of a mafia crime.

Also there are a lot of controversy about De Luca because he'd be ineligble because of the Severino Law, but looks like Renzi will change it...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Has the electoral reform changed the regional elections in any manner?

[Senator Cris]

Has the electoral reform changed the regional elections in any manner?

Are you referring to the outcome of the elections or to the regional election laws?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The latter.

[Senator Cris]

The latter.

Tuscany is the only region that has an election law very similar to the Italicum.

The various electoral systems:
 
VENETO: If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will win 50% of the vote --> 60% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will gain between 40% and 50% of the vote --> 57.5% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will not exceed 40% of the vote --> 55% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
 
LIGURIA: 80% of seats is proportionally allocated. 20% for the President's list (list of names selected by the candidate that don't need preferences to be elected). If the coalition is at 50% or over 50% of the seats with only the proportional part allocated, only 3 candidates of the President's list will be elected.
 
TUSCANY: If a candidate will not exceed 40% of votes, there will be a runoff.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will exceed 45% of the vote --> 60% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will not exceed 40% of the vote --> 57.5% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
 
UMBRIA: 60% of the seats are allocated to the winner, instead of the % of the vote.
 
MARCHE: If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will exceed 40% of the vote --> 18 the seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will gain between 37% and 40% of the vote --> 17 seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will gain between 34% and 37% of the vote --> 16 seats are allocated to the winner.

APULIA: If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will exceed 40% of the vote --> 29 seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will gain between 35% and 40% of the vote --> 28 seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will not exceed 35 of the vote --> 27 seats are allocated to the winner.

CAMPANIA: The winner will have at least 30 seats, instead of the % of the vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

De Luca is probably toast at this point. Berlusconi must be rejoicing, as FI will at least keep one region.

[SPQR]

De Luca is probably toast at this point. Berlusconi must be rejoicing, as FI will at least keep one region.

To be honest,I am not sure Campania's voters will care all that much.

[Senator Cris]

De Luca is probably toast at this point. Berlusconi must be rejoicing, as FI will at least keep one region.

To be honest,I am not sure Campania's voters will care all that much.

Me too.

Rosy Bindi (a PD member, hostile to Renzi) made the list of unpresentable candidates with De Luca on it and a lot of PD members are accusing Bindi to use the Antimafia Commission in order to hurt Renzi.

I still think that De Luca will win, but there might be consequences in the other regions.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Another question about Italy's new run-off law: how do smaller parties fit into this? I'm not terribly familiar with parliamentary systems. If there is a run-off election, what happens to the smaller parties who recieved votes and seats according to the first election?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another question about Italy's new run-off law: how do smaller parties fit into this? I'm not terribly familiar with parliamentary systems. If there is a run-off election, what happens to the smaller parties who recieved votes and seats according to the first election?

The representation threshold is 3%. Any party getting more than that will have seats in Parliament.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Another question about Italy's new run-off law: how do smaller parties fit into this? I'm not terribly familiar with parliamentary systems. If there is a run-off election, what happens to the smaller parties who recieved votes and seats according to the first election?

The representation threshold is 3%. Any party getting more than that will have seats in Parliament.

Ah, okay, I see. So then what exactly does the run-off do? Is it just to provide one of the two biggest parties with the bonus seats they should've gotten if they broke 40% to form a working majority? How exactly does that work then?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So if the results are:

PD: 33
M55 : 19
Northern League: 15

Etc.

The results will then be tallied up as per usual, and then a subsequent run-off will take place for the Democrats and Grillists to decide who wins the extra fifty seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The way the majority bonus works is so complicated that even I, an electoral systems wonk, have no clue. But I've heard that it would ensure that the winning party gets at least 55% of the seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout at 7PM was 39.2%. Voting continues until 11, so there might be a chance of reaching 50%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

EMG exit poll for Campania:
- De Luca (PD) 35.5-39.5%
- Caldoro (FI) 33.5-37.5%

EMG exit poll for Liguria:
- Toti (FI) 28-32%
- Salvatore (M5S) 25-29%
- Paita (PD) 21.5-25.5%
- Pastorino (Left) 11-15%


Dire news for Renzi if the Liguria result is confirmed.

[Andrea]

Piepoli for Rai: Tuscany, Marche and Umbria comfortable for PD

De Luca marginally ahead so far.

He can't call Liguria at the moment.

[Andrea]

First projections for Rai

Toscana...Rossi   47% Borghi (Lega) 18%

Veneto...Zaia 44% Moretti 28% Tosi 13%

Campania...De Luca 43% Caldoro 35%

Marche....PD and allies 39% 5 Stars 25%

Puglia..Emiliano 44% 5Stars 20% Fitto's guy 15% Poli Bortone 15%

[Andrea]

Rai gives an head to head between Toti and Paita with 5 Stars woman behind in Liguria.
31-30-24%