Elections in Cataluña/Catalonia 27 September

[Gren]

Whoa, it's been ages since I last posted in this forum. However, I do think that this occasion offers a good excuse for me to do so. Although I am Basque, I currently live in Barcelona, and even if I couldn't vote, I must admit to being a strong supporter of Independence. In any case, I am not very interested in arguing about the legitimacy, or lack  thereof, of the mandate that JxS and CUP may have to declare Independence. The situation is far more complex than the arithmetics may suggest (both in terms of seats and votes) and I don't have a clue as to how all this will end up. Nevertheless, I find it much more entertaining to look at the geography of this election. I have noticed that previous posters have mentioned the divide between rural and urban Catalunya, but I would like go much further in that analysis.

In an effort to demonize Catalan (and Basque) nationalism, unionists tend to point out at the fact that "peripheral nationalists" achieve their best results in rural areas and small towns, arguing that Independence is a movement of backwards, narrow-minded people. To start with, this is a deeply offensive assumption, as rural dwellers in both Catalonia and the Basque Country are at least as educated and cultivated as voters in big cities. In any case, even if there is a clear correlation between rural/small town living and support for Independence (look at the overwhelming majorities for JxS and CUP in counties such as Osona, Pla de L'Estany, Solsonès, Garrotxa, Berguedà, Priorat, etc.), I would argue that living in a rural setting per se doesn't make people more inclined to Independence. Actually, there are two factors which I consider key to understanding the support for Independence in rural areas and small towns: culture and ethnicity. Such areas haven't experienced the levels of immigration from other regions of Spain that urban regions have, therefore remaining more "ethnically" and "culturally" Catalan. I know that these two concepts can be somewhat disturbing, but let's confront the truth: they have had a clear impact on elections in Catalonia for many decades.

To further prove my point, if we look at more specific results in urban areas, we will son come to the realization that neighbourhoods that have remained largely untouched by Spanish immigration, and thus more ethnically and culturally Catalan, are as supportive of Independence as many rural areas and small towns. VilaWeb has created an incredibly useful set of maps, which can be accessed at http://www.vilaweb.cat/noticies/mapa-resultats-eleccions-27-s-municipis-carrer-per-carrer/, and which shows the levels of support for Independence and each political party by precinct. When taking a closer look at these maps, the trend I have mentioned becomes evident: in mainly unionist cities such as Badalona, Mataró, Sabadell, Tarragona and Terrassa, precincts in the core of the city show staggering levels of support for JxS and CUP. In most cases, these neighbourhoods make up the largely well-off, middle class city centre or "old town". They stand in stark contrast to the cities' working class neighbourhoods, where immigrants from Spain arrived en masse during the XXth century and where unionism is strongest. The city of Barcelona mirrors this trend; traditional, middle class quarters such as Sants, El Poblenou, Sarrià, Gràcia and L'Eixample show high levels of support for both JxS and CUP, whereas working class areas where Spanish born/descended voters live (such as Nou Barris district, or neighbourhoods such as La Verneda i la Pau and La Marina del Port) support unionism.

Oppositely, in strongly pro-Independence urban areas such as the city of Girona, overwhelmingly unionist areas exist; namely, the very poor and ethnically Spanish Font de la Pólvora neighbourhood, whose two precincts gave the independence side dismal levels of support: one gave JxS a miserable 10% and CUP 4%, whereas the other was even worse, with 3% for JxS and 1% for CUP (!!!), in a city where both parties combined got more than 60% of the vote. This phenomenon can be traced in other largely pro-Independence urban areas, such as Manresa and Igualada, where small pockets of unionism remain in neighbourhoods settled by Spanish immigrants.

What this trend also reveals is a correlation between social class and support for Independence, as it seems that middle class/well off neighbourhoods are much more supportive of secession than their working class counterparts. To an extent, this is true: it's not just that the aforementioned "city centre" sort of neighbourhoods, which are quite well-off, are overwhelmingly pro-Independence; affluent suburbs are also very supportive of it. Across the Barcelona Metropolitan area, it is in prosperous, educated suburbs where JxS and CUP get their best combined results:  58% in Sant Cugat del Vallès, 54% in Sant Just Desvern, 57% in Sant Quirze del Vallès, 74% in Matadepera and 66% in L'Ametlla del Vallès, to name a few. These suburbs sit near heavily unionist (and working class) suburbs such as Cornellà de Llobregat, Viladecans, Badia del Vallès, and so on. One could easily conclude that support for Independence is largely middle class, and it actually is, but as with the "rural/urban divide", I would argue that there is not a direct, cause-and-effect relationship between being middle class and pro-Independence. As in the previous case, the ethnic and cultural factors play a big role; the working class in Catalonia is largely of Spanish extraction (Catalonia was an industrial powerhouse that attracted hundreds of thousands of workers) whereas the middle class are proportionately more likely to be ethnically Catalan and speak Catalan. Although I don't have data to back this, I am sure that working-class, yet ethnically Catalan voters are big supporters of Independence, whereas middle class and rich voters of Spanish descent are probably the strongest group against Independence. Of course, not every ethnically and culturally Catalan favours Independence, nor does every ethnically Spanish voter oppose it, but the trend is clear.

Continuing with my point about social class, it is funny how the Spanish left has tried to link the Independence movement with the "elite" and the "Catalan bourgeoisie" in order to make it seem detached from the needs of the average citizen. Actually, the true elite in Catalunya is heavily against Independence. Agreed, CiU got a lot of the support of the Catalan establishment and upper classes, but so did the PP and, more recently, C's. However, with CiU now defunct as a coalition and CDC's clearly pro-Independence stance, the wealthy elites have abandoned Artur Mas. This seems clear to me when looking at the results in the quintessential neighbourhoods of the Catalan establishment: in Pedralbes and Tres Torres, the wealthiest quarters in Barcelona and probably in the Top 10 of Spain, JxS has badly underperformed CiU+ERC+SI (Solidaritat Catalana per la Independencia) 2012 votes, garnering around 12 percentage points less, which haven't gone to CUP (which is almost non-existent there), but to the moderate and ambiguous Unió, which breaks 10% in many of these precincts (it didn't get to even 3% in the whole of Catalunya). So don't trust anyone who says that Independence is an "elite movement"; it is essentially a movement of middle class professionals, salaried workers, small businessmen and qualified workers. The elites in Catalunya, as everywhere, are perfectly content with the status quo.

[Gren]

Well allow me to say that Convergencia looks very elite to me

Well, the party itself may look elitist, but I think that it is clear that JxS (of which Convergencia is now part) isn't the party of choice of the true Catalan establishment. CiU might have been in the past, but now that's gone, mainly to the benefit of C's and Unió.

Continuing with my point about social class, it is funny how the Spanish left has tried to link the Independence movement with the "elite" and the "Catalan bourgeoisie" in order to make it seem detached from the needs of the average citizen. Actually, the true elite in Catalunya is heavily against Independence. Agreed, CiU got a lot of the support of the Catalan establishment and upper classes, but so did the PP and, more recently, C's. However, with CiU now defunct as a coalition and CDC's clearly pro-Independence stance, the wealthy elites have abandoned Artur Mas. This seems clear to me when looking at the results in the quintessential neighbourhoods of the Catalan establishment: in Pedralbes and Tres Torres, the wealthiest quarters in Barcelona and probably in the Top 10 of Spain, JxS has badly underperformed CiU+ERC+SI (Solidaritat Catalana per la Independencia) 2012 votes, garnering around 12 percentage points less, which haven't gone to CUP (which is almost non-existent there), but to the moderate and ambiguous Unió, which breaks 10% in many of these precincts (it didn't get to even 3% in the whole of Catalunya). So don't trust anyone who says that Independence is an "elite movement"; it is essentially a movement of middle class professionals, salaried workers, small businessmen and qualified workers. The elites in Catalunya, as everywhere, are perfectly content with the status quo.

I don't know if the Spanish left tries to make a point equating separatism with economic elites. In that case, that's not entirely accurate. Big elites everywhere tend to safeguard their financial interests, although you cannot discard that certain elements might be driven by, say 'patriotic', considerations.  As you say, the bulk of the support for separatism is in the catalanista middle class, which has shifted towards pro-independence stances for a number of reasons. I won't go into discussion on the 'ethnic' argument you provide. Jordi Pujol said once that everybody who resides in Catalonia is Catalan, while the CUP has been active in lobbying low income Castilian-speakers and foreign immigrants because they know that they need them in order to build a separatist majority. Let's say that people with several generations of ancestors born in Catalonia is more supportive of independence. Coming back to the elites, the results in neighbourhoods like Pedralbes and Tres Torres are not surprising at all. Those places have always supported massively conservative parties like CiU and PP. It's not strange the level of support for the UDC, which is a party in the middle of PP and CDC on the national axis and quite conservative on social and economic issues, with ties to elites and entrepeneurs. Matadepera and Sant Cugat in the Metro region are very affluent, by the way. To be precise, Matadepera is on top in the ranking of wealthiest municipalities of Spain and Sant Cugat is placed third. Other Catalan municipalities appearing in that ranking: Teià, Cabrils, Alella, Sant Andreu de Llavaneres, Premià de Dalt, Tiana, L'Ametlla del Vallès, Sitges, Sant Quirze...

http://www.lavanguardia.com/vangdata/20150520/54431341415/ranking-municipios-ricos-pobres-espana.html

I broadly agree with your contribution. In any case, I don't want to be misunderstood; I wasn't suggesting that Catalans of Spanish descent aren't true Catalans. I was just pointing out that such voters are less likely to support Independence, something that is backed up by extensive evidence. Of course, the divide is far from being as deep as in Northern Ireland, where being of British descent (and Protestant) equates with being unionist in the overwhelming majority of the cases.

You're right about the fact that JxS polled very well in many affluent suburbs. I did point it out in my original post. Anyway, I think the type of wealth differs greatly from Pedralbes and Tres Torres to Sant Cugat and Matadepera. The former areas are home to the true bourgeoisie (with ties to the highest financial and economic spheres), whereas the latter are probably more of a upper-middle class or "petite bourgeoisie" type. I believe this is a crucial factor when understanding the different sets of results across areas that may seem demographically similar. In spite of what many people claim, the real elite or upper bourgeoisie is (generally speaking) not supportive of nationalism/separatism. This is true in both Catalonia and the Basque Country, and it is not just about economic interest, although this plays an important part as well. What many people don't know (or deliberately fail to mention) is that many of the families that make up the highest ranks of society had close ties with Franco's regime, and by and large, their symphaties still lie with an ideology that is antithetical to what Basque or Catalan nationalism spouses.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/basque-country-head-wants-referendum-ties-spain-203812576.html

Is this posturing?

Will the last Autonomico to leave Spain please turn out the lights

Being Basque myself, I would really welcome any move by the Basque government which followed the steps of what Artur Mas has done in Catalunya. However, I must say that I currently see little appetite, both in social and political terms, for such a move to take place. The situation in the Basque Country differs greatly from the situation in Catalunya, so there's little point in comparing both. Whereas a big part of the Catalan society has been very active and mobilized in recent years, this has sadly not been replicated in the Basque Country. This is mainly because decisions made by the judicial/political establishment in Madrid (regarding the "Estatut", the fiscal imbalance, the teaching of Catalan in schools and so on) have served as a wake-up call for the people of Catalunya to become engaged and fight for Independence. There hasn't been any major decision that has affected the Basque Country in the same way, and being already quite autonomous, most people are more or less satisfied with the status quo and are wary of any change. Nevertheless, and I feel optimistic about this, future events could bring this calm to an abrupt end. I am referring of course to the political developments following the general elections in Spain this winter, which have the potential to alter everything that seems settled. If either the PP or the PSOE reach an agreement with C's (which looks likely) in order to form a government, part of that deal could involve getting rid of (or watering down) the especial status enjoyed by the Basque Country. This would lead people in the Basque Country to rise in arms (metaphorically, of course) against the central goverment and spark the creation of strong a separatist movement. I'm just speculating, but anyway, interesting times are ahead and coming soon.

[Gren]

I broadly agree with your contribution. In any case, I don't want to be misunderstood; I wasn't suggesting that Catalans of Spanish descent aren't true Catalans. I was just pointing out that such voters are less likely to support Independence, something that is backed up by extensive evidence. Of course, the divide is far from being as deep as in Northern Ireland, where being of British descent (and Protestant) equates with being unionist in the overwhelming majority of the cases.

You're right about the fact that JxS polled very well in many affluent suburbs. I did point it out in my original post. Anyway, I think the type of wealth differs greatly from Pedralbes and Tres Torres to Sant Cugat and Matadepera. The former areas are home to the true bourgeoisie (with ties to the highest financial and economic spheres), whereas the latter are probably more of a upper-middle class or "petite bourgeoisie" type. I believe this is a crucial factor when understanding the different sets of results across areas that may seem demographically similar. In spite of what many people claim, the real elite or upper bourgeoisie is (generally speaking) not supportive of nationalism/separatism. This is true in both Catalonia and the Basque Country, and it is not just about economic interest, although this plays an important part as well. What many people don't know (or deliberately fail to mention) is that many of the families that make up the highest ranks of society had close ties with Franco's regime, and by and large, their symphaties still lie with an ideology that is antithetical to what Basque or Catalan nationalism spouses.

OK. It's normal that people most closely connected with other regions of Spain is less supportive of independence. Those maps from vilaweb show eloquently how parties performed in certain depressed areas in the Barcelona Metro Region, in middle class neighbourhoods like Sants or Gràcia or in affluent places like Sant Cugat or Matadepera. As you say, the latter have a slightly different sociological nature from the quintessential elite neighbourhoods of Pedralbes and Tres Torres. As for the ties between Catalan elites and the Franco regime, that is a thorny issue. Aside certain elements you mention, I suspect that other elements of the traditional Catalan bourgeoisie -where people like Jordi Pujol comes from: the botiguers and such-, lived more comfortably under Franco than their heirs would like to admit in these days, in spite of the fierce anti-Catalan stance of the regime. Furthermore, very important and revered people in Catalan culture like Josep Pla had certain sympathy for that man from El Ferrol (formerly del Caudillo). In any case, the catalanismo was a key actor in the opposition to Franco. I'm just saying that, in my opinion, the last part in your comment is a bit of a simplification.

You're absolutely right, the relationship between the bourgeoisie and Franco's regime is far more nuanced and complex than that. However, I still think my overall point was mostly accurate: the Spanish upper bourgeoisie has always been very close to the national right-wing, be it in Madrid's Barrio de Salamanca, Barcelona's Pedralbes or Neguri in the Basque Country.