Elections in Cataluña/Catalonia 27 September

[Nanwe]

Well, I think I have made in the past my opinion clear on this, if I were Catalan I'd vote Ciutadans, and not just because of Arrimadas' overall gorgeousness. One of the issues with Catalonia and Spain in general as that we lack a common project to make people enthusiastic about their Spanish identity or a sense of belonging beyond a patria chica. Personally, I think Podemos provides that, but I simply don't agree with them, so since I don't trust the PSOE to deliver (I like it now better than with Rubalcaba but still), I'll incline towards C's also in the general elections.

In any case, El Español made, as usual, some really useful analysis of the polls to find a median per constituency (note: since in Catalonia changing the electoral law requires 2/3 of the Parlament and there's never been an agreement, the electoral law is the same one used in 1980 and indeed I think it's still the same seat distribution, so it's malapportioned and by favouring Geron and Lérida, it also favour nationalist parties).

Overall picture:



Possible majorities (seats and votes)





Note: Y axis = percentage of polls analysed in which they obtain x result. X axis = nº of seats

Seat distribution in Barcelona (85 seats)



Seat distribution in Tarragona (18 seats)



Seat distribution in Girona (17 seats)



Seat distribution in Lleida (15 seats)

[Nanwe]

Ciutdadans is a clear right wing party in economy. Beyond the independence. Axis, one would have to couple with clearly far liberaleconomic policies.

So? I am a social-liberal after all

As to say they are far-liberal, that seems extreme. I've read some of Garicano's books and I find myself generally agreeing with him, maybe not a 100% but even so, no one agrees a 100% with any party.

The poll itself, what do you guys think? Is it accurate? Or maybe we could see some last-minute mobilisation of either side?

[Nanwe]

I would not call them social-liberal. They are just liberal or far liberal. Being extreme is allowed but that does not make a policy less "extreme". Garicano is pretty much agreeing with Thatchers ideology. Whether thats extreme or not, its a matter of taste, but it is certainly far-liberal.

I know, I called myself social liberal But yes, they are indeed a liberal party, which is still better than a liberal-conservative party for all I care and as I said, although I could bring myself to vote PSOE I do not believe them at all.

And being extreme is nothing good xd. The Spanish economy suffers from some clear deficiencies. Firstly is this cult of the Pymes. Pymes are a terrible way of creating employment: They provide low salaries, inflexible employment and have difficulties adjusting to market changes, unless they find niches where to become industrialised. Since we haven't managed the Venetian town-based hyper-specialised model of pymes, we should seek to help pout pymes to become larger companies. The economy is filled with utterly ridiculous licensing that only serves to hinder opportunity, because while I can understand why there is a Colegio de Médicos or a Colegio de Abogados, I'm not sure what's the point of having similar structures in many other jobs.

I don't agree with Ciudadanos regarding healthcare, because atm I live in a country where I have to pay a health insurance by law and I am not terribly happy with some things associated with the whole model. And well, you know education policies, they are just buzz words, I am yet to see a party structure a proper good proposal for a coherent educative plan beyond "flexible", "teach them to be good workers" or "no cuts", "smaller classes". They are all good ideas but none of them address anything deeper.

More moderate seems UPyD, but that party is now declining.

If Herzog obtains 1-2 seats, maybe they'll survive but atm, they are a dead man walking.

About the polls, I am not sure. I think that PSC can be in the end ahead of Catalunya Si que es Pot. Ciutdadans seems clearly second. CUP will get more than what the polls say, i think.

Honestly, I really hope you're wrong. The lower the result of JxS and of the CUP, the better. At least it seems that regarding the UDI, the CUP is more sensible than Mas & co. That's so sad.

[Nanwe]

Yes, maybe in Barcelona, but they are led by Espaldaler (is that his name?) who I don't believe it's terribly charismatic so even if they gains seats (what, 3?), I'm not sure they have much of a future beyond that unless a large section of the traditional voters of CiU who are Catalanists who ar enot very radical (the powerful upper bourgeois families and such) might switch again to UDC. But for now, it seems unlikely.

But it's such a ed up scenario in any case, these elections are not going to solve anything.

Also, Iglesias' answer regarding the referendum is so terribly uninspiring.

[Nanwe]

I am not sure uninspiring...I think he is fairly clear: he is not in favor of independence but referendum is OK. Not very different from the British approach to Scotland.

Los vasos son vasos y los platos, platos. He is clear, although he seems unable to say that in a clear-cut way. But what is uninspiring is his message. Instead of trying to create an appealing narrative, he gives in to the nationalists (as the left tends to do, probably a result from the Francoism and the difficulties in admitting anything towards Spain) and then he still fails to show an intersting project beyond 'let's kick Rajoy out'. The issue here is that besides their capacity to mobilise people, the nationalism has created (an absolutely false) appealing narrative. Unionism needs to do the same with regards to Spain.

The right is too link to Francoism to try and understand Spain in a different manner and the left lends itself to borrow the awful language of nationalism like referring to España as Estado español.

[Nanwe]

So it looks like CUP will push independentists over the required 68 seats.
What about the vote %? Will JpS + CUP be close to 50%?

No, together JxS and the CUP won't have a majority in votes. The only reason why they'll win a majority of seats is due to the malapportionment of the electoral system. But obviously they'll be around 45% or so of the votes together.

I believe the polls close at 8 pm Spanish time.

[Nanwe]

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In some colleges in Tarragona, the high turnout means there are no more envelops, so the electoral authorities are requesting to have more sent pronto. This is pretty cool, honestly.

[Nanwe]

According to TV3 (should it really be trusted tho?), the sum of CUP+JxS still does not add an absolute majority of votes, only of seats.

[Nanwe]

According to TV3 (should it really be trusted tho?), the sum of CUP+JxS still does not add an absolute majority of votes, only of seats.

49,8% of the votes. That can be considered a majority of votes.

True, just did my math >.>

Apparently some journalists warn that there was no 'cocina' by TV3 to take into account potentially shy voters from either PP or Unió. So obviously nothing is certain until 21.30 or so.

[Nanwe]

Stupid, obvious question: Where do all the parties stand on independence vs autonomy?

JxSi: Obviously pro-independence
C: Obviously anti-independence but what's its stand on autonomy?
PSC: I'm guessing in favor of the status quo
PP: Anti-autonomy?
CUP: Obviously pro-indendence
CSP: Cop out "whatever the people want"
UDC: I have no idea, are they for full independence or just autonomy?

JxSi: Independence,
CUP: Independence and favourable to the independence of the whole Països Catalans (Valencia, Franja in Aragon, Roussillon, Balearic Islands, Alghere in Sardinia).
CsP: Anti-independence, favourable to a referendum. Federal Spain, mentioning Catalonia as a nation or a país (within a país de países known as Spain) in the Constitution.
UDC: Anti-independence, favourable to a referendum. In favour of the 'tercera via', probably either a federal Spain or a confederate one with special arrangements for Catalonia.
PSC: Anti-independence. Federal Spain, asymmetry. Special status for Catalonia.
C's: Anti-independence. Clarification of competencies of the autonomies. I don't think it's entirely opposed to further devolution in some aspects, but overall content with devolution's levels. But this is not a big issue for the party, it's more centred on what to do with those competences already held (especialy education). Favourable to a reform of the Constitution to finish the autonomic process of devolution.
PP: Anti-independence. Pro-status quo, perhaps some members would be favourable to less devolution but even the PPC leadership have come to accept the Estatut of 2006.

JxSi is formed by CDC (liberal-conservative), ERC (social-democratic), Democrates per Catalunya (independentist split from Unió) and MES (no idea).

[Nanwe]

The CUP has ruled out an UDI since the sum of the two outright independentist parties fails to meet the 50%. They have also stated that they will not support Mas' investiture, which means that there'll be a second round of investiture by simple majority. All Mas needs is the CUP or someone else to abstain. Or Mas resigns, but if he's forced to resign, CDC will leave JxS in a heart beat.

[Nanwe]

Really nice work, from the looks of it, the only comarca where JxS didn't win was the Val d'Aran?