49 states of county map predictions

[cinyc]

Is anyone going to jump down my throat if I post a county map based on the current 2-way polling and nationwide PVI?   Can we just agree that it's a map suggesting a uniform swing and trend, and not necessarily my prediction?  It might make a good baseline for others to work off of.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Spark has Clinton winning Pontotoc County MS (76% Romney) but not Kemper (54% Obama) or Oktibbeha (50% Obama)

Trump is apparently going to flip Hancock County ME after Romney only got 40% there. someone sure buys into ME-2 being that 270th EV. LOL!

You're probably right actually. I just tallied it up and that's likely a 270-268 for Trump map.

But that's an awfully narrow margin and window for someone who believes:

Trump is going to win no matter what happens

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is anyone going to jump down my throat if I post a county map based on the current 2-way polling and nationwide PVI?   Can we just agree that it's a map suggesting a uniform swing and trend, and not necessarily my prediction?  It might make a good baseline for others to work off of.

That on the other hand would be quite useful.

[/]

This is FiveThirtyEight's county map prediction:

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

This is FiveThirtyEight's county map prediction:

No McMullin counties? I hope that they plan on updating this as McMullin's numbers rise. I guess they just don't have the data yet, so I can't blame them for being too cautious.

[publicunofficial]

This is FiveThirtyEight's county map prediction:

I think they are WAY too bullish on Trump's numbers in Washington and Oregon. There's no way he swings that many counties.

[cinyc]

Is anyone going to jump down my throat if I post a county map based on the current 2-way polling and nationwide PVI?   Can we just agree that it's a map suggesting a uniform swing and trend, and not necessarily my prediction?  It might make a good baseline for others to work off of.

That on the other hand would be quite useful.

Assuming I've done this right, here it is (click on the picture for a larger view in the Gallery):


The 10/15 margin for the 2-Party RCP Average is Clnton+6.7.  Removing the undecideds increases that to about Clinton+7.4.  The map assumes the national two-party vote will be 53.7 Clinton, 46.3 Trump.  The National PVI I calculated for each county in this thread is then used to adjust each county.

Obviously, this assumes no swing or trend among counties, which is unrealistic.  Thus, please don't consider this a projection - just a baseline to start launching your own projections.

Edited to add: Note: I made a math error on my initial maps.  A few counties have flipped.

[Adam Griffin]

It looks like you're using 3 shades for each candidate instead of 5 or 6 like in the scale. Is it safe to assume that the scale is:

50.0-66.7
66.7-83.4
83.4-100?

[cinyc]

It looks like you're using 3 shades for each candidate instead of 5 or 6 like in the scale. Is it safe to assume that the scale is:

50.0-66.7
66.7-83.4
83.4-100?

It shouldn't be, but I have to check. Perhaps I just did the calculations wrong.
 
Despite the key,  nothing is in the 40-50 range because it's a map of the 2 party percentage.  In theory, most counties should fall in the 50-60, 60-70 and 70-80 range.  But I'll check later.

[cinyc]

It looks like you're using 3 shades for each candidate instead of 5 or 6 like in the scale. Is it safe to assume that the scale is:

50.0-66.7
66.7-83.4
83.4-100?

Yeah, it looks like I screwed up the math by halving the PVI instead of just adding it to the two-party D and R percentage.  I'll make new maps.

[cinyc]

I fixed the map.  A few counties have flipped, particularly in Maine and New Hampshire.  If you looked at it before, please look at it again.

[RI]

I made a few maps based on a demographic model I made.

First case I made no overall margin assumptions, and the model came out as a 49-44 Clinton PV win:


Here's a larger 52-42 Clinton win:


And a 47-47 tie (Trump EV win):

[cinyc]

I made a few maps based on a demographic model I made.

What assumptions are you making in your model?  Do you weigh by educational status?  Sex?  Age?

[RI]

I made a few maps based on a demographic model I made.

What assumptions are you making in your model?  Do you weigh by educational status?  Sex?  Age?

I used a bunch of things. Race, education, age, sex, occupations, religion, primary results, housing vacancies, and a few others.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

This is from October 19th. I'm not so bullish anymore.

I'd give most of McMullin's counties to Trump. Maybe just Madison County for McMullin. Perhaps a couple smaller counties bordering Utah too.

[5280]

Hillary is not winning Maricopa county. It will be closer than 2012. Within 5+ Trump.

[cinyc]

Updated PVI uniform swing map, based on today's 2-Party RCP Average (click on the picture for a larger view in the Gallery):


The 11/5 margin for the 2-Party RCP Average is Clnton +1.7.  Removing the undecideds increases that to about Clinton +1.9.  The map assumes the national two-party vote will be 50.9 Clinton, 40.1 Trump.  The National PVI I calculated for each county in this thread is then used to adjust each county.

Obviously, this assumes the RCP average is correct and there no swing or trend among counties, which is unrealistic.  Thus, please don't consider this a projection - just a baseline to start launching your own projections.

[cinyc]

Trump will win Putnam County north of New York City.  It's a reliably Republican county.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

LMAO Carlton County, MN.

Apparently Trump is going to win Will County, IL

Well, at least that's probably the easiest Chicago area county for Trump to win (other than McHenry)...