Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

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The new D66 leader doesn't seem to be popular and has made some embarassing media appearances. The decline of D66 will continue. Pechtold has left a sinking ship.

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It would even make more sense if they merge with SP but there is no need for them, and even if they polled below 3% they wouldn't still merge, cause they're trying to establish animal parties worldwide.

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My test results:
Party voor de Dieren - 90%
Pirate Party - 87%
Splinter - 77%
SP - 73%
U-Buntu Connected Front - 73%
GroenLinks - 70%
DENK - 70%
BIJ1 - 70%
NIDA - 70%
Partij van de Arbeid - 67%
D66 - 63%
Volt - 60%
ChristenUnie - 57%
JONG - 57%
Lijst30 - 57%
NLBeter - 53%
50+ - 50%
Code Oranje - 47%
Trots op Nederland - 47%
BoerBurgerBeweging - 43%
CDA - 40%
Lijst Henk Krol - 40%
Jezus Leeft - 40%
Oprecht - 37%
SGP - 30%
PVV - 27%
Libertaire Partij - 27%
Forum voor Democratie - 23%
JA21 - 20%
VVD - 13% (LOL)

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D66 still has that image of being a pro-university pro-student party, and people buy that way too easily...

I'd think i'd be unsure between voting for Splinter, Volt, PvdD and Piratenpartij. I hope BIJ1, Splinter and Piratenpartij enter parliament and that Volt get a lot of seats.

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VVD - 35 (+2)
D66 - 27 (+8)
PVV - 17 (-3)
CDA - 14 (-5)
GL - 8 (-6)
SP - 8 (-6)
PvdA - 9 (=)
PvdD - 6 (+1)
CU - 4 (-1)

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What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Yes, the latter part is especially true, because I know who someone who did... But i said to him it didn't make sense, because they will be in the government anyway, and if you doubt between left-wing parties and D66 because tactically voting for D66 is supposedly better because you would push the government to the left, but this bad result for the left-wing parties, means D66 has basically no reason to even consider what the left really wants, as they're absolutely decimated. I really don't get that strategy.

ALso, according to polling, some VVD'ers also went to D66 because they thought VVD is going to win anyway, and they wanted a stronger voice for D66 in that government or more emphasis on left-wing policies. (center-left or social liberal policies, not really left-wing).

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What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

Yes, but it happened. I know it doesn't make sense, but people think a larger D66 in the government might push the government itself left-wing, but i don't get the strategy / thinking behind that.

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What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

I heard some friends arguing for strong D66 so they could push for Purple Plus cabinet (VVD/D66/PvdA/GL) or could subpass CDA and take the strong Finance Minister position

Purple Plus now won't happen, there's no reason for VVD/D66/CDA to invite other parties. GL/PvdA are both decimated.

Perhaps... they could invite Volt into the government, i mean. If D66 plays it very smart, they should get Volt into the government (or block negotiations), but strategically it makes more sense to not invite GL for D66. (and not consider PvdA as well).

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What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

yes, but if we treat the exit poll as perfectly accurate, then VVD-D66 might have the opportunity to look for other coalitions members. Senate math and the D66 could prefer different partners.

D66 and CU don't get along as well on some policies. The fact they don't need CU now, changes things a lot. CU is probably done as well.

So likely

VVD + D66 + CDA
But perhaps, they might look for something else like
VVD + D66 + GL + Volt
VVD + D66 + PvdA + Volt

If i was D66 and I had 27 seats, and i would be in such a position, i would sell my skin dearly

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Does CDA just wander into another coalition with Rutte and the centre-left? If they lose as much as five seats and end down on 14

I hope CDA skips this government. Than it's likelier to see PvdA/GL (one of the two) + Volt invited, or PvdA/GL. Although GL could skip as well after those results.

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RIP Dutch left

Extremely surprised at the D66 surge. Per Laki's coalitions tbh I think VVD+D66+Volt+GL would be interesting, but I guess realistically it is going to be VVD+D66+cDA

Mwha does CDA really want into the government.

VVD + D66 + Volt + GL would be the most liberal government to have ever existed on this planet, because all those parties are liberal (unless a liberal party once had a majority, but some parties are actually on the extreme end of liberalism, so i guess it could be the most liberal government to have ever existed in this world).

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Gut feel, I think D66 overestimated and PVV underestimated in exit poll.

D66 had momentum and a surge, so i'd think it's quite accurate, although it might be off by two seats.

PVV likely is around what expected, i don't think they are underestimated here, given FvD and JA21 also have a combined 10 seats, and there was little reason to vote far-right this election.

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Does CDA just wander into another coalition with Rutte and the centre-left? If they lose as much as five seats and end down on 14

I hope CDA skips this government. Than it's likelier to see PvdA/GL (one of the two) + Volt invited, or PvdA/GL. Although GL could skip as well after those results.

CDA loves being in power. There is now way they are going to say no

I think D66 should sell their skin dearly, and make clear they don't want to go into a government with CDA.

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Obligatory Urk results post:

SGP 54.4% (-1.7)
PVV 13.8% (+2.
FVD 9.5% (+7.
CU 8.1% (-3.5)
CDA 7.8% (-6.4)
VVD 1.7% (-0.1)
Jezus Leeft 1.4% (+0.7)
JA21 0.9%

I guess anti-lockdown rhetoric did find a bit of a receptive audience here.

What the hell is Urk?

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D66 only 24 seats now, instead of the projected 27.
GL also one seat down, but SP gained one
PvdD gained one seat
And BIJ1 might've missed that seat (is now down one seat, so out of parliament).

Things might still change though. (esp. for the more urban-focused parties, i assume)

Hopefully Jesse Klaver will resign, and he probably will.

BBB also above 50+ lol.

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BIJ1 seems to be back with 1 seat, but they're flirting with the threshold for 1 seat.

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Nice to know that 50+ would keep their seat if only 18-24-year-olds voted, I guess.

Is there a possibility that without 18-24 year olds voting, 50+ might've lost their seat?

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I've literally never heard of Ubuntuism, but what happened on the island St. Eustatius

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Ow sorry, i thought that was a bug that only applied to me. And I also don't know how to change that image haha. But i'm glad a moderator did.

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GL + PvdA.

I know one thing, since some GL member said on the radio that only scientists, rich people, elitists and so on would be allowed to take the plane according to them ethically because of the associated carbon emissions with air travel, the last thing they are is left-wing, and the last thing i would do if i was dutch was vote for them. Travel and transport is not a human right according to them, and exactly what they advocate for is class divide. Even VVD doesn't advocate for class divide (perhaps they secretly believe that, but they don't explicitly say that).

This automatically means PvdA also isn't left-wing. Volt and D66 also aren't left-wing, and BIJ1 / Denk are fake left, so the only valid left-wing party is PvdD lol (or SP). Perhaps Pirate Party or Splinter are other good options and BBB is a possibility too. They at least seem more people-oriented than all other parties not named yet.

Dutch politics are awful. I even sometimes prefer the right-wing political landscape of Flanders, over theirs.

They also went to the elector as parties who were not together. I think that's electoral manipulation to make the left stronger than it actually is. I would never support if i knew GL + PvdA would be one unit. I would never do that (i know i'm dutch, but i considered supporting GL). I would be very disappointed at that. It's total electoral manipulation.

If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

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If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

Why wouldn't there be new elections?

I have experience with such a deadlock in Belgium. It can take multiple years to finally have new elections, but those elections can further lead to the same deadlock as it was before.

In Spain and Israel the situation is sort of similar, or was. The problem is the high amount of fragmentisation in the Benelux, here because of the linguistical divides, in the Netherlands because they have +-20 political parties with parliamentary representation.

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If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

Why wouldn't there be new elections?

My guess is that, the fragmentation of the Dutch party system has reached the point that, a new election is unlikely to significantly improve the chances of forming a new government.

Indeed, CDA is imploding right now, which is the only partner on the right VVD have left. They are not working with FvD and PVV, and we have to see how JA21 and BBB will turn out in the future.

Yes they don't have the options right now, they don't want to work with the right, and they don't want to work with a part of the left.