Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Ronnie]

Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!

Expect the polls to slowly trend in Obama's favor.  Things like these don't happen overnight.

[Ronnie]

8 points? Crap.  If this settles until the general election, Obama is probably going to get all of the swing states, plus a couple bonuses.  Thankfully, it probably won't.

[Ronnie]

It's early August.

The fact that Obama is only at 47% favorable amongst indies isn't good.  Especially interesting in light of all the tongue baths he has gotten from the MSM.

Again though, it's only August.  People aren't tuned in yet and won't be until after the conventions.

Plus this election cycle Rasy has had a slight lean toward the GOP. The only thing we really know is it is close for now... Thanks to the slimball McCain and his attack ads he said he wouldn't do. Ah gotta love them Republicans.

What evidence do you have for that?  I'm not trying to pin you down, I'm just curious.

[Ronnie]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

[Ronnie]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

What do you think the margin will be by Tuesday?

[Ronnie]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

[Ronnie]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

Yes they have: today and yesterday's releases.

Quote from Rasmussen: "Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech."

[Ronnie]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

Yes they have: today and yesterday's releases.

Quote from Rasmussen: "Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech."

Yes, but two of the three data points from today are from after Palin's speech. Because we know the average numbers for every three-day set, we can extrapolate what the results from any given night were. Obama led by a point or two in the data from both Thursday and yesterday, Thursday including Palin's speech and yesterday including both Palin's and McCain's speeches.

Well, all I know is that by mid week next week, the polling results will be much cleaner.

[Ronnie]

Woooo!  Go McCain bounce!

And it's not even done yet.  We're only after Palin's speech.  Tomorrow, I bet McCain emerges with a lead.

[Ronnie]

Well have to see. McCain simply didn't have a good speech. I do think we will be where the convention started .

Yeah, but he had a lot of viewers.  His actual speech was okay, he just didn't deliver it too well.

...Which is the opposite of Obama's speech.  If you read it on paper, it sounds like absolute demagoguery, but if you listen to his inspiring rhetoric, you may be entranced to think he is saying something important.

But yeah, carry on.

[Ronnie]

People do not want a good speaker. They want actual content in the speeches.

The enthusiasm and viewership of Obama's speech would indicate otherwise.

[Ronnie]

Is to seem with  pie in the sky or false  specifics better than not to seem with  no specifics at all, that is the question.

Speaking of pie in the sky what do you think of this love affair that republicans have with drilling. They must understand it will do almost nothing to solve our energy problem since that oil was going to be drilled out one day anyways. And the more we drill now the less we have for later so aren't we just playing into the hands of the speculators? The energy policy of the republicans is extremely shortsighted.

McCain's energy policy is all of the above.  I can't see how that is "shortsighted".

[Ronnie]

Is to seem with  pie in the sky or false  specifics better than not to seem with  no specifics at all, that is the question.

Speaking of pie in the sky what do you think of this love affair that republicans have with drilling. They must understand it will do almost nothing to solve our energy problem since that oil was going to be drilled out one day anyways. And the more we drill now the less we have for later so aren't we just playing into the hands of the speculators? The energy policy of the republicans is extremely shortsighted.

McCain's energy policy is all of the above.  I can't see how that is "shortsighted".

"Drill baby drill" repeated a million times. WTF was up with that? I will grant you that Mccain's energy policy is better on one regard and that is nuclear. But he didn't even talk about anything specific with wind and solar, two technologies that could revolutionize energy. Here in california almost everybody with a house could produce all the electricity they need from solar. It just needs to be made cheaper which the government could help with by subsidyising it now for consumers which will lead to an overall reduction in solar panel prices later.

Sure, he put plenty of emphasis on drilling, but I heard plenty of talk about geothermal, solar, and wind.

Here's a page on his website: http://www.johnmccain.com//Informing/Issues/17671aa4-2fe8-4008-859f-0ef1468e96f4.htm

[Ronnie]

[Ronnie]

It's statistical noise.

[Ronnie]

I don't know if it's just me, but I have a very bad feeling about the debates.

[Ronnie]

Saturday - September 13, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
Obama: 45% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

This has to be beyond the scope of a convention bounce. These could be some real numbers, finally.

Yeah, the bounce really isn't subsiding.  I'm thinking these numbers could be rock solid until the debates.

[Ronnie]

McCain getting a majority of the vote?

Yay!

[Ronnie]

McCain getting a majority of the vote?

Yay!

If he has over 50 a week from now, that would mean something.

I cannot tell if we are expereincing the remainder of a bounce or if this is the new race.

Well, he has been hovering near or at the 49% mark, which practically means a majority.

[Ronnie]

I'm not so sure that it's so much of a bounce.  It may be simply a coming together of the Republican base.

[Ronnie]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

I'm starting to get worried now.

And now you see why I'm pessimistic about this election.  There isn't much left that McCain has left.

[Ronnie]

"However, since even last Friday night’s debate between the Presidential candidates failed to change the poll results, it is unlikely that last night’s event had a significant impact in either direction."

[Ronnie]

Yippee, McCainmentum...

[Ronnie]

I wish we just posted the raw margins:

Obama +6.70 to Obama +6.63

Change: McCain +0.07

Yippee, McCainmentum...

If McCain gains 0.07% every day until the election...nah just forget it.

[Ronnie]

The race has officially stabilized.