Wales 2007; results thread

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Looks like the Tories will probably replace Plaid as second-largest party. Rumor is that Plaid failed to break through in Llanelli; it'll be a bad night for them if so.

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Never mind.

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Trish Law easily retains Blaenau Gwent. That seat is starting to get really embarassing for Labour.

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Lab hold Cynon Valley. 7-point swing to Plaid.

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Lab hold Swansea East. The Independents pulled about 15% between them.

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Lab hold Merthyr Tydfil. Big Independent vote there, too, good for third and fifth. Cons in sixth place!

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Labour hold Merthyr (duh) but this has to be one of the weirdest results I have ever seen:

Lab 37%
LDem 15%
Ind 12%
Plaid 12%
Ind 9%
Con 5%
Ind 4%
Ind 4%
Ind 1%

Wales seems to be developing a plague of "Labdependents" in the wake of the Laws, Davies and Marek.

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LDs hold Montgomeryshire. Labour in fifth behind UKIP! (UKIP gets a shocking 10% of the vote.)

Lab hold Pontypridd. LDs get a big boost and knock Plaid into third.

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Whoo! Lab hold Vale of Clwyd against the moron.

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Whoo! Lab hold Vale of Clwyd against the moron.

Wrong seat, wrong seat

The moron is in Clwyd West. And he's going to win. I feel it in me waters so I do.

Oops. Darn names are too similar. Oh well.

Lab hold Cardiff South. As predicted, the opposition split rather than coalescing.

Plaid hold Dwyfor Meirionnydd, obviously.

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Lab hold Neath.

LD hold Cardiff Central.

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Plaid gain Llanelli and win over 50% of the vote (just barely)!

Also hold Ceredigion with a reduced majority. Pity.

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Lab hold Delyn and Newport West against strong Con challenges.

Con hold Monmouth. No surprise.

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IWJ wins in Ynys Mon. Rogers couldn't crush the Labour and Tory votes as much as he needed.

Indeed, he only really crushed the Tory vote. The Labour vote's decline fits with Wales' overall trend.

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Lab hold Gower narrowly.

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Plaid hold Carmarthen East & Dinefwr; LDs hold Brecon and Radnorshire.

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Has anything been heard yet from Brecon and Radnorshire? I used to know someone who lived there.

He had a sweatshirt that said "Swansea" on it and said "cheers" a lot. He didn't like it when the other Brits called him taffy.

LD hold. B&R is an LD (really more Liberal) fortress.

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Con gain Cardiff North.

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So... Lab-LD coalition looks likely, right? Or is Lab-Plaid still a possibility?

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I can't say I'm happy. I think it is unfair and improper for the largest party not to form an administration. The attitudes of the Welsh Tories and Lib Dems are of a market contrast to the parties in Scotland....

I can't say I'm surprised. Lib Dems in places like Montgomeryshire may be loyal to the party, but they're more Tory than Lib Dem. Really, this is a consequence of Labour angering everyone in the UK with their policies. I would be inclined to say that the largest party should not necessarily form the government given that they may not reflect the views of the majority of the population. Since I imagine the anti-Labour coalition will be highly unstable, the voters will get a chance to affirm or deny their support of Plaid-Tory-Lib Dem sooner than 2011.

Would you like to see the Radical Party in government in Serbia? They're the largest party. Should Fianna Fail have been in every Irish government since 1932? They've been the largest since then. Should the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan have still been in government in 1993 even after it was massively rejected by voters? Should the Tories have formed the government in 1923?

That said, I'd support a Labour-Lib Dem coalition over this one. I'm not sure about Labour-Plaid, but probably.

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The Welsh Labour Party does not even come close to comparing with the Serbian Radicals.

From the perspective of ideology, no, but certainly from the perspective of current political situation. Also, you have conveniently ignored the other three examples I provided, including one which benefited the self-same Labour Party!

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I didn't conveniently ignore them, I just ignored them. And I'd dispute that 1923, a tactical ploy by the ever shrewed Baldwin, benefited Labour that much. Not when you consider what happend next.

It gave Labour legitimacy and took legitimacy away from the Liberals. Sure, they lost big in subsequent elections, but it was the Liberals who really got torn apart, partially because of their own internal problems but also because, after a Labour government, Labour, and not the Liberals, were viewed as the main non-Tory party.