KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins (user search)
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  KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins (search mode)
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Author Topic: KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins  (Read 81573 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: January 09, 2020, 06:26:00 AM »
Bollier raised $1.1 million in... Kansas. Looks like she has a great shot.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2020, 11:37:51 AM »
So Kobach raised $242K, Marshall $376K, and Bollier over $2.2 million. Hard to say that Marshall would be a shoe-in with those #s.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2020, 06:01:47 AM »
Why are people assuming Kobach won't win the primary?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2020, 03:18:06 PM »
Quote from: OKbooma on June 01, 2020, 12:17:15 PM
Marshall is the clear favorite. And if he wins the nomination, this contest is safe R.

Safe R? nah
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2020, 05:21:03 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on July 05, 2020, 03:37:25 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on July 05, 2020, 01:38:14 PM
So the primaries are 1 month away (August 4).

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

"Hot take" apparently, but it will be at least somewhat competitive even with Marshall IMO.

Yeah, I think even if it is Marshall, that Bollier still has a shot, given that Trump's standing has clearly deteriorated in this state
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2020, 09:50:21 AM »
People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2020, 11:50:02 AM »
Quote from: Coastal Elitist on July 08, 2020, 11:28:54 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 08, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...


There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

And yet Tester and Manchin still won. Different situations, sure, but it's not impossible.

Also, given the fact that per Trumps own internals, he's deteoriating fast in KS, it would certainly be very possible.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2020, 12:15:45 PM »
Quote from: Joshua on July 08, 2020, 11:54:33 AM
Quote from: Coastal Elitist on July 08, 2020, 11:28:54 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 08, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

I think the difference here is the Bredesen campaign was desperately trying to hit the brakes on trends in a solid red state becoming even more Republican. Democrats have had essentially no success in Tennessee since 2006. Bollier is trying to hit the gas pedal on the trends in a state heading in her party's direction, and a state where Democrats have had recent success in winning statewide.

All of this. KS and TN really aren't comparable situations.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2020, 03:12:36 PM »
> Kansas elected a Democratic governor in 2018
> It has a pretty high concentration of college+ folks
> Bollier is raising ridiculous amounts of $$
> The GOP primary is extremely ugly right now
> Trump's own internals are showing him doing horrifically in the state

All of the evidence that we have points to the fact that this could be a real race. Anyone who denies it just not seeing what's in front of their face. I don't care that Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 70 or whatever years. 2020 is a different ballgame, and people should realize that by now.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2020, 05:33:51 AM »
I think there's equal chance Kobach and Marshall win. If Kobach wins, it'll be because the vote is too split up between the other candidates, b/c isn't there like 10 on the ballot or something?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2020, 09:34:49 AM »
It's getting increasingly probable that Kobach ekes out a win here...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2020, 05:08:56 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 30, 2020, 08:51:48 PM
It kinda sucks we haven't had a poll here for two months. I guess we can assume it's close with all the bedwetting.

We'll get the SurveyUSA poll after the primary is over
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2020, 10:16:58 AM »
What is everyone's predictions? I think a scenario where it's like 35 Kobach, 30 Marshall, and then 35 split up between the other 100 candidates...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2020, 05:21:52 AM »
Anyone acting like this is Safe R is being delusional IMO. I may be eating crow later, but we'll see what that new SurveyUSA poll says...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2020, 12:26:08 PM »
Quote from: morgieb on August 05, 2020, 05:40:06 AM
I'll keep it as Likely R for now, but I strongly doubt Bollier can run 10+ points ahead of Biden given Marshall is a strong candidate who's within the realms of normalcy.

Who says Marshall is a strong candidate? His fundraising was also very lackluster.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2020, 11:05:08 AM »
Yeah, this race isn't Titanium Marshall by any standards.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2020, 01:40:21 PM »
Wow, Bollier raises nearly $1M just in the last week
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2020, 11:31:37 AM »
Quote from: Pollster on September 08, 2020, 11:18:31 AM
New Marshall ad is not the type you expect from somebody well-positioned to win.

I really feel like people are underestimating Bollier's chances
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2020, 06:24:11 PM »
McConnell's senate arm also launched a *$5 MILLION* campaign starting today. They're scared of Bollier.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2020, 05:53:06 PM »

sure jan.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2020, 12:23:00 PM »
Bollier's ads have been actually been pretty great. If she can't win Kansas, I'm not sure any D could.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLCIDm5-eB0
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2020, 12:57:08 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on October 06, 2020, 12:29:01 PM
From an interview today, Bollier seems to be confused/unaware what the Patriot Act is:



So? I don't need a Senate candidate to know about every single act. This is reaching.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2020, 05:13:13 AM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on October 06, 2020, 01:35:40 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 06, 2020, 12:57:08 PM
Quote from: tmthforu94 on October 06, 2020, 12:29:01 PM
From an interview today, Bollier seems to be confused/unaware what the Patriot Act is:



So? I don't need a Senate candidate to know about every single act. This is reaching.
...this is hackery. The Patriot Act was a major, generation defining piece of legislation and is incredibly relevant and basic information a candidate should know.

Regular people do not care.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2020, 10:01:41 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 07, 2020, 05:48:56 AM
Sadly voters don't care about this stuff. Tuberville didn't know what the Voting Rights Act is and it was barely news.

People here are too inside sometimes. Regular folks literally do not care about this stuff.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2020, 08:42:10 AM »
Holy ****
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