Rate the Remaining Republican Contests
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Author Topic: Rate the Remaining Republican Contests  (Read 1489 times)
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: April 10, 2016, 11:40:29 AM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Likely Trump
DE: Likely Trump
MD: Lean Trump
PA: Likely Trump
RI: Safe Trump

IN: Toss-Up

NE: Likely Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Lean Cruz

CA: Lean Trump
MT: Likely Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Toss-Up
SD: Likely Cruz
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Senator Spark
Spark498
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E: -6.58, S: 0.00

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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2016, 11:47:54 AM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Likely Trump
DE: Toss-up
MD: Lean Trump
PA: Lean Trump
RI: Toss-up

IN: Toss-Up

NE: Likely Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Lean Cruz

CA: Lean Trump
MT: Likely Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Lean Cruz
SD: Likely Cruz
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2016, 11:57:01 AM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Likely Trump
DE: Lean Trump
MD: Lean Trump
PA: Likely Trump
RI: Lean Trump

IN: Lean Cruz

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Tossup, Lean Cruz in a 2 way race

WA: Tossup

CA: Lean Trump, Tossup in a 2 way race
MT: Likely Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Lean Cruz, Likely Cruz in a 2 way race
SD: Likely Cruz, Safe Cruz in a 2 way race
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Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2016, 12:08:50 PM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Lean Trump
DE: Likely Trump
MD: Likely Trump
PA: Likely Trump
RI: Lean Trump

IN: Likely Cruz

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Likely Cruz

CA: Toss-up
MT: Likely Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Lean Cruz
SD: Safe Cruz
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Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2016, 12:20:27 PM »
NY: Safe TRUMP

CT: Lean Kasich
DE: Tossup
MD: Lean Kasich
PA: Lean TRUMP
RI: Lean TRUMP


IN: Likely Cruz

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe TRUMP


OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Lean Cruz

CA: Tossup
MT: Safe Cruz
NJ; Safe TRUMP
NM: Likely Cruz
SD: Safe Cruz
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RR1997
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« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2016, 12:26:27 PM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Lean Trump
DE: Lean Trump
MD: Toss-up
PA: Lean Trump
RI: Safe Trump (RI and WV are going to be Trump's best states. Saying that Kasich has a chance of winning RI in the primaries is equivalent to saying that Trump has a chance of winning Vermont in the general election against Bernie Sanders/Hillary Clinton).

IN: Lean Trump (there are a lot of working-class Rust Belt whites that will heavily vote for Trump).

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Likely Cruz

CA: Lean Trump
MT: Likely Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Lean Trump (anti-immigrant types will heavily vote for Trump. NM will vote AZ did this year).
SD: Safe Cruz
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2016, 12:28:22 PM »
NY: Safe TRUMP

CT: Lean TRUMP
DE: Tossup (potential three-way fight)
MD: Lean TRUMP
PA: Lean TRUMP
RI: Safe TRUMP

IN: Lean Cruz

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Likely TRUMP

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Lean Cruz

CA: Tossup
MT: Safe Cruz
NJ; Safe TRUMP
NM: TOSS-UP
SD: Safe Cruz
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2016, 12:30:59 PM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Safe Trump
DE: Likely Trump
MD: Lean Trump
PA: Likely Trump
RI: Safe Trump

IN: Lean Cruz

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Lean Cruz

CA: Lean Trump
MT: Safe Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Likely Trump
SD: Safe Cruz
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RR1997
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« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2016, 12:34:21 PM »
I'm surprised that so many people on here believe that Cruz will win New Mexico. You guys have to remember that Trump easily won Arizona. There are plenty of staunchly anti-immigrant types in both Arizona and New Mexico that will heavily vote for Trump. Cruz has an advantage in all western states except for the ones that are on the border (Trump's victory in Arizona and the fact that California will most likely vote for Trump is proof of this). I think that Trump will easily win New Mexico.
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2016, 12:36:21 PM »
Quote from: RR1997 on April 10, 2016, 12:34:21 PM
I'm surprised that so many people on here believe that Cruz will win New Mexico. You guys have to remember that Trump easily won Arizona. There are plenty of staunchly anti-immigrant types in both Arizona and New Mexico that will heavily vote for Trump. Cruz has an advantage in all western states except for the ones that are on the border (Trump's victory in Arizona and the fact that California will most likely vote for Trump is proof of this). I think that Trump will easily win New Mexico.

The reasoning behind it is mostly that it borders Texas, and southeastern New Mexico ("Little Texas") should be fertile ground for Cruz, but I don't see a reason yet why the Albuquerque area would vote differently from the Phoenix area (besides Marco Rubio not being a factor Tongue).
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2016, 12:56:51 PM »
No Rubio + no early voting makes NM significantly different.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2016, 06:12:01 PM »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY: Safe TRUMP

CT: Lean TRUMP
DE: Lean TRUMP
MD: Lean TRUMP
PA: Lean TRUMP
RI: Safe TRUMP

IN: Lean Cruz

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe TRUMP

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Lean Cruz

CA: Lean Trump
MT: Safe Cruz
NJ; Safe TRUMP
NM: Lean Cruz
SD: Safe Cruz
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Ronnie
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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2016, 08:12:45 PM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Likely Trump
DE: Lean Trump
MD: Lean Trump
PA: Likely Trump
RI: Safe Trump

IN: Lean Cruz

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Likely Cruz

WA: Likely Cruz

CA: Lean Trump
MT: Lean Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Lean Cruz
SD: Safe Cruz
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2016, 08:32:56 PM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Likely Trump
DE: Tossup (3-way)
MD: Lean Trump (Panhandlers should be heavily Trump, but Kasich will do well in some western/northern suburban areas while Cruz should romp in the 1st congressional district)
PA: Tossup (also 3-way)
RI: Safe Trump (blowout)

IN: Likely Cruz

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Lean Cruz (must account for possible Kasich momentum, however small the chance of that might be)

WA: Lean Cruz (see OR above)

CA: Lean Trump (but I know very little about California GOP politics and have never been there)
MT: Likely Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump (blowout)
NM: Tossup (Cruz/Trump)
SD: Safe Cruz
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2016, 10:08:50 PM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Tossup
DE: Lean Cruz
MD: Tossup
PA: Toss-Up
RI: Likely Trump

IN: Lean Cruz

NE: Likely Cruz
WV:Toss up

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Likely Cruz

CA: Tilt Cruz
MT: Safe Cruz
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Lean cruz
SD: Safe Cruz
[/quote]
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2016, 10:19:45 PM »
NY: Safe Trump

CT: Safe Trump
DE: Likely Trump
MD: Likley Trump
PA: Safe Trump
RI: Safe Trump

IN: Toss Up

NE: Safe Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Lean Cruz

WA: Lean Cruz

CA: Lean Trump
MT: Toss Up
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Lean Cruz
SD: Safe Cruz
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2016, 05:13:12 PM »
Update:

IN: Likely Trump

NE: Lean Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR: Lean Trump

WA: Toss-Up

CA: Likely Trump
MT: Toss-Up
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Lean Trump
SD: Lean Cruz

Cruz is starting to show signs of a Rubio-like collapse.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2016, 05:15:05 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2016, 05:26:25 PM by Ronnie »
If Cruz loses in a landslide and drops out tomorrow, which is possible, the remaining contests are all obviously safe Trump.  If he doesn't drop out, then I'd say every contest except Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana (all probably toss-up to lean Cruz) is Safe Trump.
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Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
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« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2016, 07:29:55 PM »
Update
IN: Likely Trump

NE: Likely Cruz
WV: Safe Trump

OR:Tossup

WA: Lean Cruz

CA: Lean Trump
MT: Tossup
NJ: Safe Trump
NM: Tossup
SD: Safe Cruz
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