Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Dr. Arch]

Georgia is considering sending absentee ballots to all older voters for the May primary:

Jordan Fuchs, deputy secretary of state, said Sunday that – logistically and financially – the state could not afford to shift to a system in which all balloting is conducted by mail, as some have called for. But it could afford to mail ballot applications to those over 65 or even 60 – whichever is recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the state Department of Public Health.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-keep-them-out-long-lines-may-primary-ballots-may-mailed-older-voters/6ge4dTrJ33XkkkZyflmqVO/

How is this not voter discrimination? Everyone should have the same access.

[Dr. Arch]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

I'm surprised Cobb isn't a bigger margin considering the other counties. I also wasn't expecting Fayette to be close to flipping until 2024 or 2028, but who knows, maybe the automatic voter registration there is speeding things up

Will Fayette finally go? The big question.

[Dr. Arch]

DEM PPP: 1,248,747 (55.05%)
GOP PPP: 1,019,502 (44.95%)
TOTAL: 2,268,249

DEM SEN: 1,179,198 (54.50%)
GOP SEN: 984,274 (45.50%)
TOTAL: 2,163,472

18k new votes since yesterday in the PPP contest (none of which appear to be PPP-only); approximately 16k were Democratic. Democrats officially cross the 10-point mark in PPP lead.

Have these margins ever been a thing in GA in the current political paradigm (mainly post-2008)?

[Dr. Arch]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image

What would 2020 look like with these breakdown differentials vis-à-vis 2018 GA Gov?

[Dr. Arch]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image

What would 2020 look like with these breakdown differentials vis-à-vis 2018 GA Gov?

Assuming a replication of Abrams' margins (particularly among black voters), Democrats would receive 49.8% of the vote (±0.2 points). The variance is due to the potential difference in "other" composition between the two elections and/or how exactly you calculate Abrams support among that group.

GA for Democrats currently can really be summarized like this:

[Dr. Arch]

Took me three hours today to vote and I don’t even live in a big county. My grandparents said it took an hour and they’ve live in a rural county.

Looking forward to seeing those EV totals.