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Author Topic: oil prices  (Read 3137 times)
Wakie
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Posts: 3,767


« on: October 03, 2004, 06:26:54 PM »

The simple reality is that China and India are both becoming HUGE consumers of oil.  And the United States simply doesn't have enough oil to meet its needs (even if we were drilling ANWR, the entire Gulf of Mexico, and whole state of Texas).

We need to look at improving our current fuel economy and research alternative fuel sources.

The simple fact is that demand will ALWAYS continue to increase until we have a viable alternative energy source.
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Wakie
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Posts: 3,767


« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2004, 06:38:03 PM »

Drilling in ANWR will not move the price of gas by even 1 penny.  I've posted this before but I'll do it again.

------------------------------------------

The economics of drilling ANWR.

On any given day, the world produces about 55.7 million barrels of oil.  Currently the United States produces 5.9 million barrels of oil per day.  This is roughly 10.5% of the world supply of oil.  Of this, Alaska yields approximately 25% of the oil produced by the United States, or 1.475 million barrels per day.  95% of Alaska is open to drilling by oil companies.  ANWR is the protected 5%.

Statistically speaking, ANWR should yield approximately 77,631 barrels of oil per day.
This raises Alaska's total to 1.55 million barrels per day.
This raises the United States total to 6.5 million barrels per day.
It raises the world total output of oil to 56.3 million barrels per day (or about 1%).

The price of gasoline is set by many things, but it breaks down at these #'s:
Fixed Costs
Production Cost = $0.58
Refining Cost = $0.13
US Taxes = $0.19
Avg State Taxes = $0.23

Variable Costs
Transportation Cost = $0.15
Producer Profit = $0.51
Marketing Cost = $0.05
Retailer Cost = $0.06
Refiner, marketer, transp. & retailer profit = $0.10

Now, let us assume that all oil produced goes toward gasoline (it doesn't, but doing such is actually favorable to the oil companies who want to drill ANWR).  Drilling ANWR should reduce variable costs by 1%.  Or a grand total of $0.0087 per gallon.  Yep, that's right ... less than 1 cent.
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Wakie
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Posts: 3,767


« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2004, 11:55:02 PM »

When you say that 95% of Alaska is open for drilling, I can't tell you how stupid that sounds. They are not drilling at every square inch of land in Alaska.

ANWR is the one SPOT WITH OIL they aren't drilling at. You make it sound as if there's this one spot in Alaska where wildlife is safe.

Actually no one knows EXACTLY how much oil is available in ANWR because a complete survey has never been done.  This means it could be as much as Prudhoe Bay or as little as relatively oil barren other areas of Alaska.  As I said, STATISTICALLY SPEAKING, ANWR should yield 77,631 barrels per day.  It may be a little more or a little less.  But honestly, it isn't going to change the price of gas buddy.  It is pretty darn sad that you can't leave 5% of a state as large as Alaska alone.

The real solution to the oil crunch is a Manhattan Project on alternative energy.
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