LA: WVLA/JMC: Edwards at 52%, Vitter still in trouble

[Miles]

Article.

Edwards (D) - 52%
Vitter (R) - 32%
Not sure - 16%

With leaners:

Edwards - 54%
Vitter - 35%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WOW!!!!

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...

[Ebsy]

Changing to Lean D. Congratulations Governor Edwards!

[windjammer]

I'm still not believing this sorry.

Yes I m pessimistic and I believe Bevin will win as well

[DrScholl]

But, this is still a Likely Republican race. Sure.

[Zache]

Holy crap.

[Miles]

I'll also add that JMC mostly does work for Republicans.

[Maxwell]

I like how so many people here are just into conventionial wisdom that they will literally throw out polls with 20 point leads.

David Vitter has not led in a poll head to head with John Bel Edwards since September, Vitter has less than three weeks to make up a giant gap.

LEAN D AT LEAST!

[windjammer]

I like how so many people here are just into conventionial wisdom that they will literally throw out polls with 20 point leads.

Well Yes

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

But, this is still a Likely Republican race. Sure.

All the pundits have moved it to Lean R or Toss-Up now.

[Miles]

Crosstabs:




Edwards could very well end up carrying LA-03, and likely LA-06, if these crosstabs hold up.

[IceSpear]

I like how so many people here are just into conventionial wisdom that they will literally throw out polls with 20 point leads.

David Vitter has not led in a poll head to head with John Bel Edwards since September, Vitter has less than three weeks to make up a giant gap.

LEAN D AT LEAST!

PTSD from 2014.

[Miles]

Edwards gets 25% of Republicans and only loses whites by 3%:

[Bojack Horseman]

That's going to feel mighty good to open Wikipedia and see Louisiana in blue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No runoff, that's great. Clean sweep.

[Landslide Lyndon]

No runoff, that's great. Clean sweep.

Are you a real person?

[Miles]

The Lake Charles numbers are really surprising.  Is Edwards Cajun?

Actually he's not.

Dardenne did well in Calcasieu Parish, so perhaps those voters are moving to Edwards.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is facinating, if Edwards beat the runoffs, it will indeed be a great night for Dems. Sorry Mitch Landrieu, you would have indeed been a great Gov.

[Skye]

I like how so many people here are just into conventionial wisdom that they will literally throw out polls with 20 point leads.

David Vitter has not led in a poll head to head with John Bel Edwards since September, Vitter has less than three weeks to make up a giant gap.

LEAN D AT LEAST!

Sadly. I'll change it to lean D if the week of the election the Edwards maintains leads like this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems win La, a state they were supposed to lose, may be a sign for 2016. Even 2017, looks good, where Va gov looks like it may well be a Democratic hold after McAuliffe.

[Flake]

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by JMC Enterprises on 2015-10-31

Summary: D: 52%, R: 32%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I find it very difficult to take the Sabatos and Rothenbergs very seriously when they're calling this Lean or Likely R when this race is probably closer to Safe D than Lean R at this point. I would agree with people saying this won't hold and Vitter will pull through if it were semi-close, but a 20 point lead is pretty much beyond doubt. It'd be one thing if he had 6 months to pull the party together before the big day, but he has 3 weeks. He just doesn't have time.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If Dems win La, a state they were supposed to lose, may be a sign for 2016. Even 2017, looks good, where Va gov looks like it may well be a Democratic hold after McAuliffe.

Yeah, 2014 was also a great indicator for 2015....

[smoltchanov]

Too good to be true. And Holden winning and Caldwell losing? And Edwards winning in Lafayette area? Sincerely - i doubt...