Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

That doesn't work, presumably because it's Imgur. Perhaps you could save it in your gallery on your Atlas profile, that always works.

Ok, let's try this map from El Confidencial then

[Velasco]

The 2015 local elections reshaped the political landscape of Spain. Madrid, Barcelona and other important cities through the country were conquered by anti-establishment candidacies, which in many cases were the amalgamation of civic and social movements with left-wing parties and were sponsored by Podemos. These local "governments of change" are like the jewels of the crown for the purple party, the main showcase of another possible country. Íñigo Errejón says: "we have the challenge to defend our mayoralties like a treasure, an indispensable conquest on the road ahead".

What the rights and wrongs of the "Mayors of Change" have been? This article series in El País tries to enlighten us.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/05/25/actualidad/1495735424_054038.html

Among the common elements of these local governments, they are mentioned:

- Promotion of citizen participation in decision making
- Focus on social policies and mobility
- Several mayors have reduced the debt, despite omens saying that public spending would increase exponentially

Among the problems they have in common, the article mentions lack of experience and improvisation. Opposition parties complain about sectarianism. In some cases, there is internal division in the governing teams.

Madrid: learning to manage from the scratch

Retired judge Manuela Carmena (aged 73) leads a heterogenous governing team (Ahora Madrid incorporates Podemos, IU, Equo, Ganemos and independents). Top priorities were the "regeneration" of politics, bringing administration closer to the citizens and ensuring economic solvency (PP local administrations left an astronomic debt, especially under Ruíz Gallardón).

The lack of harmony in the fragmented governing team, as well the lack of experience, were reflected in a number of controversies and mistakes. Several councilors acted in their own without asking Carmena. Decision making difficulties on cleaning service, waste management and security. Mistakes on cultural management that forced Carmena to personally take on responsibility.

The low implementation of investments has raised debt repayment. According to the article, in the last months the local government has shown greater efficiency in areas like culture and urban planning. Carmena and her closer associates have taken the control of key projects. Advances in the fight against pollution and citizen participation. The article concludes saying that after a beginning marked by improvisation, the members of the governing team are accomplishing to learn how to manage a big city.

Barcelona: Turn in agenda, big long term plans and lack of realization

The governing team lead by Ada Colau vindicates a change in the agenda of Barcelona and in the investment priorities, with a focus in the fight against inequality and in the housing policy. Barcelona en Comú (11 out of 41 councilors) governs in minority with the PSC (4 councilors) as junior partner, so the governing team is forced to a permanent negotiation with the other parties in the city hall. Two years after the unexpected victoty of the Ada Colau list, Colau's lieutenant Gerardo Pisarello and acting mayor (Colau is on maternity leave) states that they are "quite satisfied" with what has been achieved. There are many projects on the table ("when you make 5 big things they are more visible than 50 middle-sized things" says municipality manager Jordi Martí, a former socialist) and many of them are ambitious long term projects, so there is little realization. The governing team claims that 45% of the term's routemap has been implemented. There is citizen unrest on two issues: housing (evictions continue and rents are high) and overcrowding caused by mass tourism. The fragmented oppsoition is made of incompatible parties (PP, C's, PDECat; ERC and CUP), so they can't present a united front to oust Colau.

Valencia: social policies and change in mobility

Mayor Joan Ribó leads a governing team that incorporates Compromís, PSOE and Valencia en Comú (Podemos and independents). There has been a radical change in policies after 25 years of PP hegemony. Once the Ribó team took office evictions stopped immediately, social benefits to alleviate energy poverty increased ,  certain bullfighting shows were banned and it was promoted a new mobility policy (pedestrianization and 30 km/hr speed limit in downtown). Another major change with regards to the years of Rita Barberá (PP) is the recovery of the historical memory of republican Valencia (the city was the provisional capital between November 1936 and October 1937, during the Civil War), as well the governing team has changed the name of some streets because they had Francoist reminiscences. There is an aim to "separate Church things from State things" and to normalize the use of Valencian (the regional variety of Catalan language). There have been internal differences between Compromís, PSOE and Podemos. The opposition (PP and C's) complains about the "sectarianism" of the governing team.

Other "mayoralties of change" featuring in this articles series: Zaragoza, A Coruña, Santiago and Cádiz.

(Crossposting from the AAD)

[Former President tack50]

El País poll about Catalonia and the situation there:



Notable questions:

¿Has the PP government handled the Catalonia situation correctly?
(yes-no)
Catalonia: 4-96
Rest of Spain: 19-77

Interestingly even PP voters say it isn't handled correctly

The best way to solve the Catalonian issue is for a legal referendum approved by Catalonia and the central government to happen

Catalonia: 71-26
Rest of Spain: 38-62

Interestingly PSOE is split in the matter, with Catalan PSOE voters favouring a referendum 61-36, but all others opposing it by 44-56.

Do you think Catalonia's independence will be possible in the near future?

Catalonia: 34-62
Rest of Spain: 12-85


The government of Catalonia should:

Keep going with the independence process: (Catalonia 31%; Rest of Spain 11%)
Adopt a negotiationg strategy: (Catalonia 60%; Rest of Spain 79%)

[Velasco]

Poll for the Barcelona City Hall.

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/barcelona/encuesta-periodico-colau-ganaria-otra-vez-las-municipales-con-erc-como-principal-partido-oposicion-6064862?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cm

Ada Colau's party would win again local elections in Barcelona, ERC  would be the second force in the City Hall at the expense of the PDECat (formerly CDC, CiU).

[Former President tack50]

Ok, it's official now; Rajoy will manage to pass the 2017 budget, he signed a deal with NC today. That also means that he probably won't call early elections at least until 2019 (probably at the same time as the European or the regional elections), recycling 2017's budget for 2018 if necessary.

The votes will go as follows:
Yes (176) PP (137)+ Cs (32)+ PNV (5) + CC (1) + NC (1)

PP's total includes the MPs from UPN in Navarra and Foro in Asturias.

No (174): PSOE (84) + UP (67) + PDECat (8 ) + ERC (9) + Bildu (2) + Compromis (4)

UP's total includes the MPs from IU.

Interestingly, Pedro Quevedo (NC's only MP) has said he will support Pedro Sánchez in a no confidence vote against Rajoy (thus keeping the promise he made to PSOE), but that in the mean time if he can get stuff for the Canary Islands he will do that even if it means allying with PP.

Then again even with NC, Podemos and the Catalan parties a no confidence vote would still need either CC and Bildu (unlikely, CC does not like Podemos and they need PP to stay alive in the Canary Islands' government), PNV (slightly better but still not likely as they are reaching very good deals with PP) or Cs (with Cs the Catalan parties wouldn't even be needed, but if PSOE+Cs+Podemos didn't work in 2016, it won't work now)

[Former President tack50]

Poll for the Barcelona City Hall.

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/barcelona/encuesta-periodico-colau-ganaria-otra-vez-las-municipales-con-erc-como-principal-partido-oposicion-6064862?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cm

Ada Colau's party would win again local elections in Barcelona, ERC  would be the second force in the City Hall at the expense of the PDECat (formerly CDC, CiU).

So, according to that poll there are 2 possibilities:

Far left ¿pro independence (idk how you could be pro independence in a town hall, but whatever)? En Comu+ERC+CUP government

Mainstream left, not as pro independence En Comú+ERC+PSC government

Also, En Comú+ERC is very close to a majority. If they 2 alone get one, the government will almost certainly be En Comú+ERC

In any case though, it seems Colau will stay as mayor for another 4 years.

[Mike88]

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:



249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

[Zinneke]

What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?

[Former President tack50]

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:



249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

Interesting to see that while under Spain's current system Podemos beating PSOE in seats but not in votes was a very real possibility even if it didn't happen in the end. However with the UK's system the reverse would happen! PSOE wins the popular vote but gets less seats than UP!

According to the website that happens because PSOE gets very close in many places (La Gomera, industrial areas in Barcelona) but still loses to PP while Podemos has its voters distributed more effectively, concentrated in certain areas (Basque Country, urban Catalonia and some areas of Madrid).

Also, not all seats have the same population since the current system is already not fuly proportional (rural areas have more seats than they should). The Canary Islands for example are terribly malapportioned, with the seats in the minor islands having a lot less people in them than those in the major islands. For example El Hierro and La Palma both have one seat, even though La Palma has more than 8 times el Hierro's population.

Another example is Las Palmas city seat, which would have 350 000 people in it! (35 times more than El Hierro)

A more proportional map there would look like this (requires splitting Las Palmas and Santa Cruz-La Laguna into several seats or multi member districts though)



It does not change the result (PP still sweeps all 15 seats) though. In 2015 though PSOE would have very narrowly won Tenerife South West and Podemos would have won Fuerteventura's seat, as well as some in Las Palmas (they would have won all 3 if it was winner takes all)

Still a great map though.

[Mike88]

What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?

I believe these results come from the big coastal cities like Málaga or Cadiz plus the tourism resort cities of Marbella, Torremolinos and Isla Cristina. Curiously a similar pattern is also seen in Algarve.

[Velasco]

What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?

I believe these results come from the big coastal cities like Málaga or Cadiz plus the tourism resort cities of Marbella, Torremolinos and Isla Cristina. Curiously a similar pattern is also seen in Algarve.

As a general rule, in Andalusia PP performs better in the bigger municipalities (especially in provincial capitals) and in the coast. The Andalusian countryside leans to the left for historical reasons, related with a land tenure system characterised by the existence of large estates and the proletarianization of the workforce, deprived of access to the land. The countryside votes mostly for the PSOE, with some scattered IU strongholds. I think there is an equivalency with certain regions of Portugal where communists are traditionally strong (Beja and Évora districts in Alentejo).

Málaga and the tourist resort cities in Costa del Sol (Marbella, Estepona, Fuengirola) lean PP. In the coastal municipalities of Almería crops grown in greenhouses (mostly fruit and vegetables) are the main economic activity. These places in Almería are PP strongholds.

http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2010/12/02/almerias-greenhouses-what-goes-on-inside/   

In the rest of provinces you can find resort towns or municipalities or specialised crops (strawberries in Huelva). As for the city of Cádiz, PP came first in 2015 and 2016 but Podemos governs the municipality and came a strong second.

[parochial boy]

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:



249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

With ERC winning inland Catalonia, and Unidos Podemos winning what I assume is Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida, would it be safe to presume that there is higher support for independence in rural Catalonia than in the cities? why would this be?

[Former President tack50]

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:



249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

With ERC winning inland Catalonia, and Unidos Podemos winning what I assume is Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida, would it be safe to presume that there is higher support for independence in rural Catalonia than in the cities? why would this be?

Yeah, that's safe to presume. In fact if you go back (2011 and earlier), CiU performed better in rural areas while PSOE won mostly just Barcelona and its suburbs. They have each been replaced as the leading party in each area by ERC and Podemos respectively, but the divide is still there.

If you look at the association of municipalities for independence, most are in rural areas, with the more urban coast not being part of it.



Similarly if you look at the results of the 2015 regional election, the pro-independence parties win in most places, but they lose Barcelones (Barcelona), Baix Llobregat, Valles occidental (both Barcelona suburbs), Tarragones (Tarragona), Baix Penedés (idk why), and the Aran Valley (surprisingly one of the most anti independence areas, one where Occitan/Aranese is co-official with Catalan and Spanish)



As for why, I guess it's because Barcelona (and to a lesser extent Tarragona) are more "cosmopolitan", have a higher population of Spanish "inmigrants" while rural areas have a higher population of Catalan speakers.

[Former President tack50]

Here's another "Spain's election except with the British electoral system" map, this one for 2015



PP 206
Podemos 75
PSOE 44
CDC 12 (less votes than ERC)
PNV 8
ERC 5

They also made a map for 2011



PP 258
PSOE 46
CiU 33
PNV 8
Amaiur 5

And for 2008



PSOE 182
PP 161
PNV 3
CiU 3
CC 1

Interestingly, this one isn't that far off from the actual 2008 results (which shows that the more the 2 main parties get, the more faithful it is, and also how dominant PP+PSOE were back then)

http://simulaciones.es/blog/sistema-electoral-britanico/

http://archive.is/fH1AS

[Former President tack50]

Funny story in the budget debate today: PM Rajoy accidentally voted against one part of his own budget XD

Didn't change the end result though, that item was passed almost unanimously (only Rajoy voted against it)

[Antonio the Sixth]

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

[Nanwe]

Those maps are really cool, as it happens, I'm actually trying to do the same thing, I was surprised by how similar the Vizcaya province districts are. However, I do wonder where they found the information to divide Santander or Oviedo by district - I've been looking and I can't find it anywhere. Same for Valladolid, and iirc Burgos too.

[Velasco]

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

[Nanwe]

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

Yeah, clearly. And things like fiscal Moix's designation (and resignation) do no help matters at all. I'm not sure Rajoy can recover from all the accusations of judicial interference or the photos of him going to declare as witness in the Audiencia Nacional.

[Former President tack50]

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

I'd say Rajoy is probably safe until 2019. Let's look at the parties represented, from most pro Rajoy to least pro Rajoy.

PP: Well, they'll obviously support themselves XD

CC: CC needs PP to keep a stable government in the Canary Islands (the majority would now be CC+PP+ASG support) and PP is looking forwards to entering the Canarian government and making it a formal coalition. Similarly PP needs CC for stability in Spain (although 1 MP can only get you so far but still). That makes for some easy deals.

Cs: They are probably Rajoy's most loyal support, but they don't seem happy dealing with the nationalist Canarian/Basque Parties. They also are not that tolerant to corruption (although their tolerance is still too high IMO), so a very large scandal involving Rajoy directly could force a Cs+PSOE+Podemos coalition for a new snap election like it was discussed in Murcia.

PNV: They seem to have the highest price for reaching a deal of all the nationalist parties. However, they are a right wing party in the end, so dealing with PP is not that bad for them if they can get significant concessions like with the budget.

NC: They are to PSOE what Compromís is to Podemos. A small amount of independent MPs who contested the election with the large national party, and who are more moderate than the main party. However, NC is still a left wing party, and they are very wary because they know that whatever concessions they get will not be handled by them (NC is in opposition in the Canary Islands assembly) so CC might steal their achievements and they might demoralize their left wing voters, who would move to Podemos. Then again most predictions for 2019 I've seen have NC going up, not down, but IMO the Canary Islands are probably one of the harder communities to predict. No polling doesn't help.

In any case, they are the magical "MP number 176" for a bare majority, which does give them a lot of leverage for a party with 1 MP. However, they've said they will support any PSOE led no confidence vote, so they will not keep Rajoy in government unless it's necessary.

PDECat: If they dropped their independence position, I'd probably put them ahead of PNV. However, I'm putting them here because while they won't support Rajoy on important stuff, they can support him on more minor things in exchange for stuff for Catalonia, like with the recient port reform. It's also a much easier route than the one used for the budget, as PP+Cs+PDECat does have a majority (177 seats).

PSOE: Under Susana Díaz they'd be ahead of PDECat, and possibly also ahead of NC. However now that Sánchez is the secretary general they'll have a more open opposition to Rajoy, and won't reach deals with him unless it's completely necessary. Then again there's the possibility of Sánchez going back on his word with his move to the left being just a strategy to survive as leader of the party.

From here on these parties will probably never reach a deal with Rajoy


Compromís: Valencian nationalists, and thus they don't see PSOE as a complete competitor. Still, they contested the election with Podemos, not PSOE, which puts them quite a bit to the left. I can't see Compromís behaving like NC and dealing with Rajoy in exchange for stuff for Valencia. However of this group they are the likeliest to do so.

ERC: Putting them here because  their entire manifesto is "Independence!!!1111!!". If Rajoy decides to surrender on that for some reason, he'll get ERC.

Bildu: Same as ERC, but in Basque

Podemos: While PP+Podemos does have a majority (204 seats), they are the extremes and thus will never ever vote the same in anything.

So, the kingmakers in this case are NC (for passing important stuff), PDECat (For passing minor laws) and PNV (for stopping no confidence votes)

If Sánchez can somehow convince PNV that they will be better under a left wing PSOE government AND decides to give Catalonia a referendum, we'll get PM Pedro Sánchez via no confidence vote. Otherwise it's PM Rajoy until at least 2019 (I doubt he'll finish the 4 year term, most likely he'll call a snap election for late 2019 at the latest)

[Mike88]

Talk about conflicting polls...

Metroscopia/El Pais:

Link

NC Report/La Razón
36.0% PP
20.5% PSOE
20.2% UP
12.6% C's
Link

Nonetheless, i made an average of the most recent polls by polling companies and the results are:

30.9% PP
22.2% PSOE
20.3% UP
15.1% C's

[Kamala]

What would be a good showing for each of the 4 major parties?

[Former President tack50]

What would be a good showing for each of the 4 major parties?

Too early to say, but IMO this are the best possible showings. Also adding 2019 regional possible pickups because it's only 2 years from no so why not:

PP: 36% or 155+ seats. Anything that allows just a PP+Cs government (without nationalists) would be pretty good though. A PP overall majority becomes a posibility if they reach at least 40%, but it's almost impossible as of now (though PP is the only party with even a chance of that. I'd give it a 5% chance).

In terms of 2019 pickups, basically all PSOE led governments are a possible pickup, though obviously some are harder than others. A good night in 2019 would probably have PP picking up Valencia, Balearic Islands, Aragon, Castille-La Mancha and Cantabria (all from PSOE except Cantabria, who would be picked up from left wing regionalists), and holding Madrid. The Canary Islands' electoral system is too ed up for PP to win, Andalucía and Extremadura are very strong PSOE strongholds and there's no way PP is picking up Catalonia or Navarra. Finally I think PSOE is safe in Asturias. Their main competitor might be Podemos actually.

PSOE

Improving on their most recient results (22.5%, 90 seats) would be pretty good for PSOE. Ideally 25% or more, or reaching 100 seats would be a very good night for them. Reaching Rubalcaba 2011 levels (29%, 110 seats) is their ceiling IMO, and that's also very unlikely.

As for regions in 2019 they'll be playing defense as they had a very good night back then. So a good night will probably have PSOE holding all governors (ie no net change). Their only reasonable pickup seems Madrid. However one thing to keep in mind is that all PSOE governors but one (Francina Armengol, Balearic Islands) were anti-Sánchez in the primary and while Sánchez has said he won't fire anyone, that might still be an issue.

UP

Becoming the 2nd largest party (above PSOE) for good would be a good showing. A very good one might be 100+ seats or 26%+ of the vote.

In regional terms, Aragon (Echenique is very well known) and Asturias seem their best chances at a pickup. Maybe Madrid as well if Errejón gets momentum (the PSOE leader there is also very popular)

Cs

17% of the vote or 60+ seats would be a really good showing.

In regional terms there's no place where Cs might be able to form a government. Catalonia is their best chance at a regional pickup (they are the official opposition there), but even that's unlikely unless unionists become stronger and a Cs+PP+PSC government becomes possible

[Former President tack50]

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

[Nanwe]

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier