British Local Elections, May 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

When do the first results from the London mayoral race come in ?

Tomorrow, when they start counting.

Wait then why is the rumour mill going on about Sadiq Khan loosing ?

Turnout figures are now out, and show that it is down by around 2% overall compared to 2021 - and roughly equally in areas that voted for Khan or Bailey last time. But an against the trend increase of 4% in Bexley/Bromley - one of the best Tory areas - has unsurprisingly got some people nervous.

[Duke of York]

If that NEV is anywhere near accurate than the British people deserve to be miserable.

I mean.. they want change but don’t want it from Labour? It’s not rocket science - if you don’t vote Labour you will get the Tories. Plain and simple

Starmer is terrible leader. It would be nice to Labour them get a hung parliament.

[Oryxslayer]

Tamworth falls, 9 Labour gains and 1 con hold. I spotted at least two seats where Cons + Reform + legacy UKIP were greater than Labour, but that wouldn't change the overall result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If that NEV is anywhere near accurate

It isn't, which is why none of us ever take it seriously. It might be useful to assume that some of the regulars here do actually know what we're talking about.

[CumbrianLefty]

If that NEV is anywhere near accurate than the British people deserve to be miserable.

I mean.. they want change but don’t want it from Labour? It’s not rocket science - if you don’t vote Labour you will get the Tories. Plain and simple

Its mainly useful these days as a "historic" indicator to compare with past local election years. As a guide to how a GE might go, it is maybe now less meaningful than ever - and the way it gets used by certain people in the media is starting to border on active disinformation.

[Oryxslayer]

If that NEV is anywhere near accurate

It isn't, which is why none of us ever take it seriously. It might be useful to assume that some of the regulars here do actually know what we're talking about.

Wish I could recommend this twice. Because seriously, its all new arrivals still discussing it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tamworth falls, 9 Labour gains and 1 con hold. I spotted at least two seats where Cons + Reform + legacy UKIP were greater than Labour, but that wouldn't change the overall result.

Shame, was hoping for a Labour clean sweep there - not least because that would have been a total inversion of the 2021 results

[Oryxslayer]

Reports that Wokingham may not go Lin-Dem majority - cause Labour activity in the wards covering the new Earley and Woodley GE constituency is giving them councilors.


Cheltenham has no more Tories, Worcester only 1 and that denied Labour the majority, Woking unclear but might also have 0.

[MillennialModerate]

If that NEV is anywhere near accurate than the British people deserve to be miserable.

I mean.. they want change but don’t want it from Labour? It’s not rocket science - if you don’t vote Labour you will get the Tories. Plain and simple

Starmer is terrible leader. It would be nice to Labour them get a hung parliament.

I happen to like him - what’s so bad about him?

And No it wouldn’t because a chaotic hung parliament means nothing of substance gets done and when inevitably one of the smaller parties get bruised egos and another election is called the Tories will say to the public… “The problem wasn’t us - it was a bunch of unfixable circumstances” and “Don’t vote for us and you’ll get the chaos committee”

[Duke of York]

If that NEV is anywhere near accurate than the British people deserve to be miserable.

I mean.. they want change but don’t want it from Labour? It’s not rocket science - if you don’t vote Labour you will get the Tories. Plain and simple

Starmer is terrible leader. It would be nice to Labour them get a hung parliament.

I happen to like him - what’s so bad about him?

And No it wouldn’t because a chaotic hung parliament means nothing of substance gets done and when inevitably one of the smaller parties get bruised egos and another election is called the Tories will say to the public… “The problem wasn’t us - it was a bunch of unfixable circumstances” and “Don’t vote for us and you’ll get the chaos committee”

because hes bland and changes his position constantly.

[MillennialModerate]

If that NEV is anywhere near accurate than the British people deserve to be miserable.

I mean.. they want change but don’t want it from Labour? It’s not rocket science - if you don’t vote Labour you will get the Tories. Plain and simple

Starmer is terrible leader. It would be nice to Labour them get a hung parliament.

I happen to like him - what’s so bad about him?

And No it wouldn’t because a chaotic hung parliament means nothing of substance gets done and when inevitably one of the smaller parties get bruised egos and another election is called the Tories will say to the public… “The problem wasn’t us - it was a bunch of unfixable circumstances” and “Don’t vote for us and you’ll get the chaos committee”

because hes bland and changes his position constantly.

I’ll take Starmer (or Blair Lite) over Corbyn and Milliband ANY DAY.

[Blair]

What is hilarious about the cope is that several of the councils e.g plymouth, swindon, Aldershot, Thurrock are in marginal parliamentary seats that will lead the road to a labour majority- if they win Plymouth Sutton, Aldershot, Swindon etc they will will be winning a strong majority.

We even had a by election which everyone has forgotten!

[YL]

In Sheffield, Labour regained all the defectors’ seats and took Graves Park from the Lib Dems (first time they’ve won it, and for much of the ward I think the first Labour council win ever), Walkley from the Greens and Stocksbridge & Upper Don from the Tories, but they lost heavily Muslim Darnall, usually safe, to an Independent. The Greens compensated themselves by winning Ecclesall from the Lib Dems for the first time, and holding Nether Edge & Sharrow, which had voted Labour for the last two years. It wasn’t a great day for the Lib Dems, who lost those two seats and had some close shaves elsewhere as well as falling well short in their targets. The Tories were wiped out.

In Rotherham Labour made some headway against the Tories but the latter still have 13 seats, all in the Rother Valley constituency, and somehow still including one in Maltby East. Labour were also hurt here by losses to Independents, several of whom are ex Labour councillors, but did slightly increase their majority.

Barnsley was fairly dull, but Labour won Penistone East from the Tories, who are reduced to one seat, and lost Kingstone to the Lib Dems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fundamentally, of course, there will be a substantial number of people who will baulk at voting for Rotherham Labour in a council election for various reasons and will be for a while, even if voting Labour for anything else is no issue.

[Oryxslayer]

Dudley is in - Tied council. But not at the 50-50 line. With 3 Lib-Dems and 1 Indie Labour will form a minority.  Less Labour seats than desired but still the tight result suggested by past performance.

[Alcibiades]

Labour fails to regain Oxford.

loses five seats. Four to independents and one to Greens., Wonder why this happened in Oxford and not Cambridge.

Probably because the Oxford LTN scheme was more ambitious, and because Oxford is also demographically more primed for a backlash to it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dudley is in - Tied council. But not at the 50-50 line. With 3 Lib-Dems and 1 Indie Labour will form a minority.  Less Labour seats than desired but still the tight result suggested by past performance.

LibDems started doing well in a usually Labour but sometimes Conservative ward due to a planning dispute (they were against the development, naturally) and now hold all three seats there.

[Duke of York]

Labour fails to regain Oxford.

loses five seats. Four to independents and one to Greens., Wonder why this happened in Oxford and not Cambridge.

Probably because the Oxford LTN scheme was more ambitious, and because Oxford is also demographically more primed for a backlash to it.

How so? Cambridge is a college town too.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour fails to regain Oxford.

loses five seats. Four to independents and one to Greens., Wonder why this happened in Oxford and not Cambridge.

Probably because the Oxford LTN scheme was more ambitious, and because Oxford is also demographically more primed for a backlash to it.

I was waiting for the results to be posted on the council site (https://www.oxford.gov.uk/elections-voting/oxford-city-council-election-results-2-may-2024) to answer this cause its a little complicated. A good chunk of the defectors who left Labour seem to have lost. Only 1 candidate with a Muslim background got elected under and Indie ticket. Rather, all the Indies are under a local label and carried wards in the south of the council, none seem Muslim.

The Independent Oxford Alliance in that won are basically a Anti-LTN party. To the point googling them finds some kooky 'beyond-the-pale' statements outside that lane. And when comparing to Cambridge, that council scrapped a similar such plan, but the beneficiaries of backlash was the Tories last year.

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s worse than last year - they’re trying to *project constituencies* from the PNS

I mean, look at this nonsense:

Wait a minute, is this just extrapolating to England - and leaving Scotland and Wales unchanged on the grounds that "there aren't any council elections there"?

So still a near clean sweep for the SNP, amongst other things??

If so, actually worse than useless.

[Duke of York]

Dudley is in - Tied council. But not at the 50-50 line. With 3 Lib-Dems and 1 Indie Labour will form a minority.  Less Labour seats than desired but still the tight result suggested by past performance.

Thats a huge loss for Conservatives.

[Alcibiades]

Labour fails to regain Oxford.

loses five seats. Four to independents and one to Greens., Wonder why this happened in Oxford and not Cambridge.

Probably because the Oxford LTN scheme was more ambitious, and because Oxford is also demographically more primed for a backlash to it.

How so? Cambridge is a college town too.

It didn’t have anything to do with that. Labour narrowly lost one student ward to the Greens, but the rest were all to anti-LTN independents in the quite working-class south and east of the city. My point was that Oxford is more working-class than Cambridge.

[CumbrianLefty]

And those totals add up to 640 MPs, which makes even less sense.

Colossal fail in all respects.

[Alcibiades]

Labour fails to regain Oxford.

loses five seats. Four to independents and one to Greens., Wonder why this happened in Oxford and not Cambridge.

Probably because the Oxford LTN scheme was more ambitious, and because Oxford is also demographically more primed for a backlash to it.

I was waiting for the results to be posted on the council site (https://www.oxford.gov.uk/elections-voting/oxford-city-council-election-results-2-may-2024) to answer this cause its a little complicated. A good chunk of the defectors who left Labour seem to have lost. Only 1 candidate with a Muslim background got elected under and Indie ticket. Rather, all the Indies are under a local label and carried wards in the south of the council, none seem Muslim.

The Independent Oxford Alliance in that won are basically a Anti-LTN party. To the point googling them finds some kooky 'beyond-the-pale' statements outside that lane. And when comparing to Cambridge, that council scrapped a similar such plan, but the beneficiaries of backlash was the Tories last year.

Well, only one of the defectors even stood for re-election (she came a distant third place). The rest of the post is correct; these gains are clearly fuelled by opposition to the LTNs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a shocking things I know, but local elections will often boil down to local issues.