Protests Against Modi's Citizenship Law Morphing into Opposition to Hindutva

[jaichind]

The real BJP goal is to make India into a world superpower based on an unifying ethno-state.  A goal I very much emphasize with.  The main issue now is the de facto unifying basis the BJP came up with is the Indo-Aryan Hindu identity.  Other than the issue of the Muslim minority this is also being resisted by the Northeast as well as the Dravidian states.  The Upper Dravidian states like Karnataka, AP and Telangana have seen some Sanskritization in their languages over the centuries which mike them them potentially accept the Indo-Aryan identity but the Lower Dravidian states of TN and Kerala with their own independent literary tradition will me a hart nut to crack.

Support/Opposition to the new CAA seems to be splitting on these lines.

VDP poll on CAA.  All India numbers are 42% For 38% Against 20% DK/No Opinion

Breakdown by state are


Assam has a massive 70% against.  Punjab due to to non-Hindu factor also high levels of opposition.
 Hindi states (UP Rajasthan) has high levels of support.  Deep South Dravidian (TN Kerala) have high levels of opposition.   Non-Assam Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states are swing areas.

I think the Northeast will not be a problem.  They are few in numbers and are economic backward so they are dependent on federal subsidies and a series of political, military and economic pressure and incentives will get them to accept this new reality.  The Lower Dravidian states and Muslims will be the hard part.

My suggestion is for the BJP to switch from Indo-Aryan Hindu identity to just Indo-Aryan identity in an attempt to woo the Muslims to come aboard.   This is not easy as the Indian Muslims have their own literary tradition with Urdu but the BJP will have to find a way to achieve this Hindustani fusion.

There is no real solution for the lower Dravidian states other than to

a) let them go their separate ways
OR
b) economically develop the Indo-Aryan core to a degree that Hindi would become an economically powerful language and de facto linqua franqa of South Asia so the lower Dravidian states will have no choice but to accept Sanskritization.

The main problem with b) is that the BJP is looking to create this common identity AS a way to create India as an economic superpower and not the other way around.

All in all the BJP have very admirable goals but the execution will have several difficult to solve obstacles.

[jaichind]

Another shooting by a Hindutva fascist in Delhi

These shootings are a feature and not a bug.  There is an assembly election campaign in Delhi now and if fought on local issues AAP will defeat BJP.  BJP need to nationalize the election to have a chance at winning. Provocative statements from BJP leaders that might have led to these shootings for sure turn off moderate voters but could mobilize some of the 57% vote share BJP won in the LS election to vote BJP and beat AAP or at least make the BJP defeat less humiliating   

[jaichind]

Another shooting by a Hindutva fascist in Delhi

These shootings are a feature and not a bug.

If I said something like this about, say, a Palestinian suicide bombing, I'd be banned.

Just to be clear.  What I really meant was that from the BJP's point of view this is a feature and not a bug.  It is assumed that actions like this will hurt BJP electorally so I am making a point that it is not necessary so.  As for my views, I am quite sympathetic to the BJP project of building an Hindu based ethno-state but for sure would not back an act of random violence to achieve it.

[jaichind]

In the Delhi assembly elections the BJP have been pushing the CAA and the anti-CAA protests as its main agenda.  The exit polls seems to have shown that it fell flat on its face although in a LS elections the BJP would still win in a landslide.  The real results will be out tomorrow.  The real tests will be the assembly election of Bihar later this year and the assembly elections of WB and Assam in 2021.

[jaichind]

In the Delhi assembly elections the BJP have been pushing the CAA and the anti-CAA protests as its main agenda.  The exit polls seems to have shown that it fell flat on its face although in a LS elections the BJP would still win in a landslide.  The real results will be out tomorrow.  The real tests will be the assembly election of Bihar later this year and the assembly elections of WB and Assam in 2021.

Why does India still not release the results of the election till days after Exit Polls. That sounds way too old fashioned

It is about counting and not releasing.  After the voting all the EVM are moved to counting centers which will take time ergo it is often a couple of days after the vote itself.

[jaichind]

BJP was routed by AAP in Delhi assembly elections 62-8.  So even if majority of Delhi residents back CAA it did not seem to fetch the BJP that many extra votes in a state level election. 

[jaichind]

Seven killed, 150 injured in riots in New Delhi

Big mistake by the anti-CAA crowd.  I think the BJP will sweep back to power in the critical UP assembly elections in 2022 at this rate.   Adityanath has not played caste politics well, especially in Western UP but CAA issue will play right into his hands.

[jaichind]

BTW the only way to stop these types of Riots in India, is to implement US-style Law and Order policies which the left in India calls far-right.

Come on, everyone knows that communal riots in India are very often encouraged and made worse by the authorities.

Maybe.  But we should not assume a conspiracy when incompetence is the more likely expiation   

[jaichind]

The problem is a lack of law and we order and the fact is even the right wing in India on this issue are way to left on this issue . They need US style law and order policies , maybe Giuliani/Bloomberg style

I think the legacy of Gandhi's non-violent bandh protests and just accepting that it is ok to interrupt  the lives of everyone just to protest some cause creates a culture of accepting law breaking because it is part of some sort of "cause for justice."

[jaichind]

Violence in NE state of Meghalaya in protest against CAA
 
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/meghalaya-violence-over-caa-three-dead-tourists-stranded-809460.html

Here the anti-CAA protests are that they do not go far enough as the tribal groups there want all Bengali speaking people out be they Hindus or Muslims.  There are already signs that non-tribals are moving out of Meghalaya in light of continued violance.