KY-SurveyUSA: Romney has large lead in the state

[Bandit3 the Worker]

53-39

This from the pollster that claimed Romney was winning the 18-29 crowd in Colorado.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Barack Obama remains a poor cultural match for Kentucky outside of Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, and Covington.

Covington and its surrounding county is actually heavily Republican.

The city is Democratic though.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Kentucky is probably one of those 5 or 6 states that swings D in a close race.

Notice that even with a Republican pollster like SurveyUSA, Obama does better in Kentucky than he did last time.

The county-by-county trends are going to be somewhat interesting.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What may be more significant -- if Kentucky is at all closer for President Obama, then Missouri (which has areas much like eastern Kentucky) gets much closer. Indiana is then in play because southern Indiana is culturally close to Kentucky.

That depends on whether the urban-rural split is widening, which is still unclear.

This poll says Romney wins the Louisville area by 10, but it's a 14-county area, not just Jefferson County.

I have a gut feeling Obama is going to pick up Marion County this time around.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's crazy how much things have changed in only 20 years. In the 1992 race, Clinton won Kentucky and New Jersey by about the same margin.

Not only that, but Campbell County used to be one of the very worst counties in Kentucky. It's still worse than average, but not that much worse.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't know much about Campbell County, KY. I assume it's a suburb of Cincinnati?

Yes.

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It won't be. Louisville and Lexington are growing too fast for that.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bandit: Do you have a map prediction for Kentucky this election?

I know I posted one a few months ago, but I don't know where it went.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Back in April, I made a map that has these counties flipping to Obama: Boyd, Mason, Robertson, Bath, Floyd, Woodford, Franklin, Carroll, Marion, Warren, Muhlenberg, Daviess, Union.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If not the growth rates, what is it about Kentucky that leads you to believe it will become a swing state in the future?

Because it didn't fall as far as the rest of the South did, so it doesn't have as far to climb.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

But it doesn't work that way. Trends don't reverse themselves overnight. Kentucky has been trending R since 1996, and Obama did historically poorly in the only area of the state left that still supported Democrats (eastern Kentucky). Your belief isn't backed by any facts of hard data.

But he did historically well in Louisville and Lexington.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I bet Obama gets to 43-44% the way things are going...

He got 41 last time, so I think 45 is a real possibility.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is there meaningful population growth in those areas that may potentially flip the state in the future?

Yes.

And there's meaningful population loss in the rural counties.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Tennessee will flip before Kentucky, and Tennessee ain't flipping.

Wasn't Romney up by only 1% in a TN poll?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hillary would win this state easily.

If Obama can't win it, Hillary won't.

I bet Kentuckians would love Brian Schweitzer though.