My 2006 House of Reps prediction thread

[© tweed]

Damn, this took hours.

Democrats Pick Up:

AZ-08
CT-02
CT-04
CO-07
FL-16
IA-01
IL-06
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
KY-04
NY-24
NY-26
TX-22
WA-08

Republicans Pick up none.  The only district they have any real chance at a pickup in is that Illinois District (IL-10?) with Bean as the Democrat.

Along with several close calls...

So 2007 House Breakdown:

218 Democratic 217 Republican

I think there's about a 45% chance the Dems take the House.

[Virginian87]

I agree with Tweed's prediction, though I would add VA-2 to the list of Democratic pickups. 

[Deano963]

Damn, this took hours.

Democrats Pick Up:

AZ-08
CT-02
CT-04
CO-07
IA-01
IL-06
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
KY-04
NY-24
TX-22
WA-08

Republicans Pick up none.  The only district they have any real chance at a pickup in is that Illinois District (IL-10?) with Bean as the Democrat.

Along with several close calls...

So 2007 House Breakdown:

219 Republican 216 Democratic

I think there's about a 45% chance the Dems take the House.

Boss, you really don't see the Dems picking up ANY of the Ohio races (OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-18)? Are you kidding me? Especially with Strickland and Brown leading the ticket? You do know about Taft/Noe/Coingate/Blackwell and how the word "Republican" is spoken in Ohio in the same manner you or I might say "child molester" don't you? I have seen polls with the Dem challenger at least tied or leading the republican in every single one of those races.

I also find it highly UNlikely that the Dems will not pick up at least one of the contested PA races, given that the trio of Philly suburb races are all very tight and Rendell and Casey are heading up the ticket.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm going to report on IN-02, IN-08 and IN-09 from next week. As well as these three, I intend to call all the races being covered in the "Majority Watch" project of RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics mid-October

What I can say is as of their last poll, support for the three Indiana Democratic challengers is "firmer" than that of the GOP incumbents; and providing that holds, I see a good night for Hoosier Democrats and, perhaps, beyond

If the guys do win but the Democrats fall short of the House, lessons can be learnt come 2008 when it comes to matching suitable candidates with 'marginal' districts

Dave

[Fritz]

Nobody sees MN-06 as a Dem pickup?

[Keystone Phil]

Nobody sees MN-06 as a Dem pickup?

Bachmann was ahead by a healthy amount in a poll released earlier this week.

[© tweed]

09/29

Change FL-16 from R to D