Beau Lives: 2019 - 2029

[Edgeofnight]

New Update should be out within the next few days, until then, here is a little fluff piece with some polling:

Morning Consultant's The 10 Most Popular Governor's in America, January 2021.

1. Kay Ivey (R-AL): 67% Approve, 23% Disapprove
2. Larry Hogan (R-MD): 65% Approve, 25% Disapprove
3. Phil Scott (R-VT): 63% Approve, 20% Disapprove
4. Beau Biden (D-DE): 63% Approve, 22% Disapprove
5. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR): 61% Approve, 24% Disapprove
6. Charlie Baker (R-MA): 60% Approve, 24% Disapprove
7. Erin Stewart (R-CT): 60% Approve, 25% Disapprove
8. Dan Biss (D-IL): 58% Approve, 27% Disapprove
9. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 56% Approve, 27% Disapprove
10. Greg Abbott (R-TX): 55% Approve, 31% Disapprove

[Edgeofnight]

Part 34: Madam President

Nikki Haley Takes the Oath of Office, lays out ambitious agenda.

January 20th, 2021 -- Washington DC

Having made history with her election, Haley seeks to make her presidency a transformative one. In her inaugural address, she laid out three key goals for her first 100 days in Office. First, she promised a comprehensive infrastructure package to put America back to work and fix America’s dilapidated infrastructure. Second, she set out to solve the opioid crisis by increasing police and DEA funding to crack down on drug suppliers. Third, she promised to restore America’s standing abroad by cracking down on Iran, Syria, and eliminating ISIS. She also spoke about the historic nature of the 2020 election, and promised to carry on that historic change to become a transformative President.

Haley Approval Rating:

Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 24%

Other January 2021 Headlines:

January 4th: Corker and Paul spar in committee hearing.
January 5th: Rhee announced as pick for Secretary of Education
January 9th: Kelly Thomasson declares bid for Lt. Governor in Virginia
January 10th: Biden Farewell Address: “No Regrets”  as President prepares to leave office with 50% approval ratings.  
January 17th: Jack Ciattarelli formally declares bid for New Jersey Governor
January 18th: Former Governor Terry Mcauliffe declares bid for Virginia Governor, shakes up race.
January 28th: Jill Vogel declares Gubernatorial bid, Stewart leads primary.
January 28th: Vogel declares Gubernatorial bid, endorses Frank Wagner for Lt. Governor.

The Haley Administration:

Vice President: Chris Sununu
Chief of Staff: Catherine Templeton
Counselor to the President: David Bossie
Secretary of State: Bob Corker (96-2)
Secretary of the Treasury: Rosario Marin (59-39)
Secretary of Defense: Martha McSally (91-8)
Attorney General: Trey Gowdy (84-14)
Secretary of the Interior: Mary Fallin (56 - 43)
Secretary of Commerce: Meg Whitman (68-31)
Secretary of Labor: Pam Bondi (55 - 44)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Charlie Baker (87-12)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Rob Astorino (76-23)
Secretary of Transportation: Kevin Faulconer (90-9)
Secretary of Energy: Evan Jenkins (51-50)
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee (55-44)
Secretary of Veterans’ Affairs: Scott Brown (78-21)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Mike McCaul (90-9)
EPA Administrator: Tim Fox (57-42)
UN Ambassador: Joe Heck (64-35)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Poor department of interior Also, this is great.

[Edgeofnight]

Finals+Work+Life has been burying me. Expect an update within the next week, but don't know exactly when.

[Edgeofnight]

This isn't the update I was talking about, but here is a list of all the current U.S. Senators. They are listed with the Senior Senator first, followed by the junior senator.

52R-48D

Alabama:

• Richard Shelby
• Luther Strange

Alaska:

• Lisa Murkowski
• Dan Sullivan

Arizona:

• Kyrsten Sinema
• Jeff DeWitt

Arkansas:

• John Boozman
• Tom Cotton

California:

• Dianne Feinstein
• Kamala Harris

Colorado:

• Michael Bennet
• John Hickenlooper

Connecticut:

• Richard Blumenthal
• Chris Murphy

Delaware:

• Tom Carper
• Chris Coons

Florida:

• Marco Rubio
• Tom Rooney

Georgia:

• Johnny Isakson
• David Perdue

Hawaii:

• Brian Schatz
• Mazie Hirono

Idaho:

• Mike Crapo
• Jim Risch

Illinois:

• Tammy Duckworth
• Napoleon Harris

Indiana:

• Todd Young
• Mike Pence

Iowa:

• Chuck Grassley
• Joni Ernst

Kansas:

• Jerry Moran
• Jeff Coyler

Kentucky:

• Rand Paul
• Matt Bevin

Louisiana:

• Richard Cassidy
• John N Kennedy

Maine:

• Angus King
• Jared Golden

Maryland:

• Ben Cardin
• Chris Van Hollen

Massachusetts:

• Joe Kennedy
• Maura Healey

Michigan:

• Debbie Stabbenow
• Gary Peters

Minnesota:

• Amy Klobuchar
• Tina Smith

Mississippi

• Roger Wicker
• Chris McDaniel

Missouri:

• Jason Kander
• Josh Hawley

Montana:

• Ryan Zinke
• Steve Bullock

Nebraska:

• Deb Fischer
• Ben Sasse

Nevada:

• Catherine Cortez Masto
• Brian Sandoval

New Hampshire:

• Maggie Hassan
• Stefany Shaheen

New Jersey:

• Cory Booker
• Tom Kean Jr.

New Mexico:

• Tom Udall
• Martin Heinrich

New York:

• Chuck Schumer
• Kirsten Gillibrand

North Carolina:

• Thom Tillis
• Deborah Ross

North Dakota:

• John Hoeven
• Kevin Cramer

Ohio:

• Sherrod Brown
• Rob Portman

Oklahoma:

• James Lankford
• J.C. Watts

Oregon:

• Ron Wyden
• Jeff Merkley

Pennsylvania:

• Bob Casey Jr.
• Kate McGinty

Rhode Island:

• Jack Reed
• Sheldon Whitehouse

South Carolina

• Tim Scott
• Matt Moore

South Dakota:

• John Thune
• Mike Rounds

Tennessee

• Marsha Blackburn
• Steve Fincher

Texas

• John Cornyn
• Ted Cruz

Utah:

• Mike Lee
• Mitt Romney

Vermont:

• Patrick Leahy
• Bernie Sanders

Virginia:

• Tim Kaine
• Levar Stoney

Washington:

• Patty Murray
• Maria Cantwell

West Virginia:

• Shelly Moore Capito
• Don Blankenship

Wisconsin:

• Russ Feingold
• Rebecca Kleefisch

Wyoming

• Mike Enzi
• John Barrasso

[OBD]

This isn't the update I was talking about, but here is a list of all the current U.S. Senators. They are listed with the Senior Senator first, followed by the junior senator.

52R-48D

Alabama:

• Richard Shelby
• Luther Strange

Alaska:

• Lisa Murkowski
• Dan Sullivan

Arizona:

• Kyrsten Sinema
• Jeff DeWitt

Arkansas:

• John Boozman
• Tom Cotton

California:

• Dianne Feinstein
• Kamala Harris

Colorado:

• Michael Bennet
• John Hickenlooper

Connecticut:

• Richard Blumenthal
• Chris Murphy

Delaware:

• Tom Carper

[/b]

• Chris Coons

Florida:

• Marco Rubio
• Tom Rooney

Georgia:

• Johnny Isakson
• David Perdue

Hawaii:

• Brian Schatz
• Mazie Hirono

Idaho:

• Mike Crapo[/li]
  
  • Jim Risch
  
  Illinois:
  
  • Tammy Duckworth
  • Napoleon Harris
  
  Indiana:
  
  • Todd Young
  • Mike Pence
  
  Iowa:
  
  • Chuck Grassley
  • Joni Ernst
  
  Kansas:
  
  • Jerry Moran
  • Jeff Coyler
  
  Kentucky:
  
  • Rand Paul
  • Matt Bevin
  
  Louisiana:
  
  • Richard Cassidy
  • John N Kennedy
  
  Maine:
  
  • Angus King
  • Jared Golden
  
  Maryland:
  
  • Ben Cardin
  • Chris Van Hollen
  
  Massachusetts:
  
  • Joe Kennedy
  • Maura Healey
  
  Michigan:
  
  • Debbie Stabbenow
  • Gary Peters
  
  Minnesota:
  
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Tina Smith
  
  Mississippi
  
  • Roger Wicker
  • Chris McDaniel
  
  Missouri:
  
  • Jason Kander
  • Josh Hawley
  
  Montana:
  
  • Ryan Zinke
  • Steve Bullock
  
  Nebraska:
  
  • Deb Fischer
  • Ben Sasse
  
  Nevada:
  
  • Catherine Cortez Masto
  • Brian Sandoval
  
  New Hampshire:
  
  • Maggie Hassan
  • Stefany Shaheen
  
  New Jersey:
  
  • Cory Booker
  • Tom Kean Jr.
  
  New Mexico:
  
  • Tom Udall
  • Martin Heinrich
  
  New York:
  
  • Chuck Schumer
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  
  North Carolina:
  
  • Thom Tillis
  • Deborah Ross
  
  North Dakota:
  
  • John Hoeven
  • Kevin Cramer
  
  Ohio:
  
  • Sherrod Brown
  • Rob Portman
  
  Oklahoma:
  
  • James Lankford
  • J.C. Watts
  
  Oregon:
  
  • Ron Wyden
  • Jeff Merkley
  
  Pennsylvania:
  
  • Bob Casey Jr.
  • Kate McGinty
  
  Rhode Island:
  
  • Jack Reed
  • Sheldon Whitehouse
  
  South Carolina
  
  • Tim Scott
  [/b]
  
  • Matt Moore
  
  South Dakota:
  
  • John Thune
  • Mike Rounds
  
  Tennessee
  
  • Marsha Blackburn
  • Steve Fincher
  
  Texas
  
  • John Cornyn
  • Ted Cruz
  
  Utah:
  
  • Mike Lee
  • Mitt Romney
  
  Vermont:
  
  • Patrick Leahy
  • Bernie Sanders
  
  Virginia:
  
  • Tim Kaine
  • Levar Stoney
  
  Washington:
  
  • Patty Murray
  • Maria Cantwell
  
  West Virginia:
  
  • Shelly Moore Capito
  • Don Blankenship
  
  Wisconsin:
  
  • Russ Feingold
  • Rebecca Kleefisch
  
  Wyoming
  
  • Mike Enzi
  • John Barrasso

Er...[/list]

[Edgeofnight]

Part 35: First 100 Days

Republicans tackle infrastructure.

February 8th, 2021

The first item on Haley’s agenda is passing a massive infrastructure package. Haley’s package, totaling 500 Billion USD in total, would seek to match City and State funding for various infrastructure projects, hoping to give struggling communities a better chance at revitalizing themselves. This is just one component of the infrastructure package, but is the main piece. It also includes 25 Billion allocated to grants to local communities with the specific purpose of modernizing power grids. The bill has obtained bipartisan support, but has also attracted criticism from Deficit Hawks. Senators Rand Paul (R-KY), John Kennedy (R-LA), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Steve Fincher (R-TN) have all come out against the bill. A significant number of liberals have also come out against the bill. Senator and former Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris (D-CA) said that the bill “practically guarantees cuts to medicare and medicaid.”  Senator Jason Kander (D-MO) voiced similar concerns, but spoke positive on several aspects of the bill, being sure to add “I won’t vote for it until we see some idea of where this money is coming from.”  DC insiders say the bill is likely to pass the house easily, but caution that the bipartisan group of senators may be able to stall the bill.

Democrats look forward.

February 23rd, 2023

After 5 ballots, Democrats have found their new Party chair. Secretary Jack Markell of Delaware defeated Jason Rae on the final ballot after incumbent Tom Perez withdrew on the third ballot. Markell has pledged to focus primarily on reuniting the party, and has promised to “rebuild” the party from the ground up. Markell’s victory has been met with a large, collective “meh” from most Democrats.He is the least controversial and least exciting candidate for the chairmanship, and his victory represents a desire to play it safe among national democrats.

Other Headlines:

February 7th: Jason Kander “not interested” in running for president, will seek second term in the senate.
March 8th: Haley dodges the immigration issue as reform bill misses cloture. 
March 9th: Rubio: “We have the votes to pass the Dream Act.”
March 10th: Cruz: Dream Act has “near zero” chance of passing.
March 11th: Speaker Ryan won’t put DREAM Act to a vote, citing Hastert Rule.
March 11th: Majority Leader Cornyn wont abolish filibuster to pass DREAM act.
March 23rd: Haley announces “renegotiation” of NAFTA, other free trade agreements. Commerce department and Haley Administration will consider withdrawing from TPP.
April 3rd: Virginia Primary polling: Mcauliffe 23%, Herring 16%. Thomasson leads Roem with 32% of the vote. Vogel trails Stewart 40% to 49%.
April 5th: Kamala Harris is not thinking about running for president, focused on senate duties.

[America Needs R'hllor]

April 5th: Kamala Harris is not thinking about running for president, focused on senate duties.

She's gonna run
Also, curious that the Haley administration is so protectionist. I guess one of the only economic issues where I side with most Republicans is gone too, lol.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 36: Spring - Summer 2021

Middle East Plan: Bomb Everything

May 29th, 2021

President Haley’s foreign policy can be boiled down to two words: Bomb’s Away. Led by Secretaries Corker and McSally, Haley has taken an aggressive foreign policy stance in the Middle East. To combat ISIS, Secretary Corker purposed amping up airstrikes as an alternative to boots on the ground. Still, the Haley administration has left the possibility to increasing ground forces from 3,000 to 6,000 if the Air Campaign should fail.

The increases in bombings has drawn the ire of Human Rights groups the world over. Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) has cautioned that more bombings might worsen the situation.  Even some Republicans aren’t fully on board. Rand Paul (R-KY) has found himself a frequent critic of Corker and Haley, and said the decision to increase Air Strikes is a “hasty move that opens American’s up to danger”. Secretary Corker responded to these concerns in a press briefing, stating that he is working closely with the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to ensure that the strikes are conducted in the safest, most strategic manner possible to minimize civilian casualties.

Virginia Gubernatorial election favors Democrats after primaries.

June 15, 2021.

After the Tuesday primary, Democrats have emerged the stronger party in the upcoming Virginia Gubernatorial election. Fmr. State Attorney General Mark Herring has won the Democratic nomination with 42% of the vote, while the Democratic Primary for the State’s second position was won by State Delegate Danica Roem, who prevailed narrowly with 50.2% of the vote. Attorney Justin Fairfax was unopposed for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General.

On the Republican side, Corey Stewart, a Prince William County Supervisor defeated Lt. Governor Jill Vogel, 56% to 43%. The primary was messy, and characterized as an Establishment vs Anti-Establishment battle by national media. Stewart’s crushing win is the result of an increasingly conservative Statewide Republican party, as Stewart constantly accused his opponent as being “too soft” on Democrats and regularly challenged her conservative credentials. Stewarts win can also be attributed to strong support from former Trump allies such as his 2020 campaign manager Steve Bannon. For the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General positions, Frank Wagner and John Adams where both uncontested for their respective primaries.

Polling for the general election shows Herring with a consistent lead statewide of anywhere between 49 and 56%, and an aggregate result of 51%. Stewart claims many of the polls have been rigged against him to discourage his supporters from donating, but evidence doesn’t support this claim. No other candidates have entered the general election.

Full results from the primaries below:

(Maps will be added when tiny pic stops being down.)

County Supervisor Corey Stewart -- 55.7%
Lt. Governor Jill Vogel -- 44.3%

(Maps will be added when tiny pic stops being down.)

Fmr. Attorney General Mark Herring -- 41.8%
Fmr. Governor Terry Mcauliffe -- 30.2%
Fmr. Congressman Tom Perriello -- 14.9%
Fmr. Lt. Governor Ralph Northam -- 13.1%


NYC Democratic Primary Results:
Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. defeated Public Advocate Letitia James and City Comptroller Scott Stringer in the mayoral primary 47% to 32% to 21%.
Fmr. State Senator Dan Squadron won the nomination for Public Advocate unopposed.
City Councilman Ritchie Torres defeated fellow Councilman Andrew Cohen 55% to 44% for the nomination for City Comptroller.

NYC Republican Primary Results:
Lawyer Michael O'Reilly won the nomination over perennial candidate Rocky de La Fuente with 59% of the vote.
Juan Carlos Polanco won the Public Advocate nomination unopposed.
Michel J. Faulkner won the nomination for Comptroller unopposed.

Haley: “Opioid Addiction is the most serious public health crisis since AIDs.” Sununu to chair bipartisan Opioid Committee.

July 19th, 2021

In a press conference today, President Nikki Haley personally stated that her administration will step up the fight against the Opioid epidemic with the creation of a Bipartisan Committee to craft a formal policy to fight against the epidemic. Led by Vice President Sununu, the Committee will consist of 13 total members, 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats, that will interview Law Enforcement and Medical professionals, as well as Municipal and City-level politicians before drafting a formal policy recommendation to give to the president. The creation of the committee represents an effort of the Haley administration to reach out to Democrats on one of the nation’s most pressing issues.

13 Members in total:
Chairman: Vice President Chris Sununu (Rep.)
Secretary of Health and Human Services Charlie Baker (Rep.)
Attorney General Trey Gowdy (Rep.)
Chief of Staff Catherine Templeton (Rep.)
Florida Governor Adam Putnam (Rep.)
Pennsylvania Governor Scott Wagner (Rep.)
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (Rep.)
Nevada Governor Adam Laxalt (Rep.)
Washington Governor Jay Inslee (Dem.)
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (Dem.)
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards (Dem.)
Kentucky Governor Allison Grimes (Dem.)
Missouri Governor Nicole Galloway (Dem.)


Haley Approval Ratings (August 2021)
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 40%
Unsure: 7%

Phil Murphy Approval Ratings (August 2021)
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 46%
Unsure: 10%

Ed Gillespie (Retiring) Approval Rating (August 2021)
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 45%
Unsure: 12%

Bill De Blasio Approval Rating (August 2021)
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%
Unsure: 6%

New Jersey Gubernatorial Polling:
Phil Murphy: 46%
Jack Ciattarelli: 42%
Other: 2%
Unsure: 10%

Virginia Gubernatorial Polling:
Mark Herring -- 52%
Cory Stewart -- 42%
Other -- 6%

NYC Mayoral Race Polling:
Diaz (Dem/Working Families Alliance) --  55%
O'Reilly (Republican/Conservative/Reform Alliance) -- 33%
Other -- 4%

Texas 10th Congressional District Special Election Polling (September):
Stacy Hock -- 50%
Mike Sigiel -- 44%

House Generic Ballot:
Republican -- 44%
Democratic -- 43%
Undecided/Other -- 13%

Other Headlines:

May 13th: Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear is running for the Senate.
May 20th: Justice Anthony Kennedy considering retirement, will make decision by the end of the year.
June 10th: Erin Stewart most popular Governor in the Country, survey finds.
June 12th: Chris Christie: Phil Murphy is the worst Governor in New Jersey History.
June 13th: New Jersey Government is in budget crisis, Senator Kean says.
June 15th: Haley “wants tax cuts on the floor” before July Recess.
June 20th: Republicans debate massive Tax cut as deficit hawks push back.
June 20th: In blow to Haley administration, tax cut bill won’t be voted on before recess.
June 22nd: Fmr. Rep Gwen Graham announces bid for Florida Governor, leads likely opponents.
June 25th: Rubio considers retirement in the face of a difficult re-election campaign.
June 28th: Jason Carter declares 2022 Senate bid.
July 12th: Tax Bill passes House with narrow majority support. Expected to pass Senate.
July 15th: Victory for Haley as Tax bill passes senate 51-49. Rand Paul joins democrats in voting against the bill.
July 22nd: Johnny Isakson is done, will retire in 2022. Nick Ayers “strongly considering” run to replace him.
August 2nd: Nick Ayers is in as Republicans clear the field in Georgia.
August 3rd: NRSC chairman Tom Cotton says “Rand can go f**k himself,” in leaked audio.
August 5th: Rand Paul: “I’ll win without his help,” as spat with Cotton and Republican leaders continues.
August 8th: Georiga Polling: Ayers leads by 6 against Carter, neither has majority support.
August 12th: Andrew Gillum enters Senate race to face Rubio.
August 20th: David Jolly announces independent bid for Florida Senate.

[Edgeofnight]

This is a bit of a Fluff piece. I couldn't find a spot to put it on the timeline that I liked, so its going here as it's own separate thing. Putting this up now because I lost the county map for VA gov 2021.

24 for 2024

The 2024 election may be three years out, but its already become on of the biggest topics of speculation among pundits across the nation. As Democrats gear up for the 2022 midterms, behind the scene, the 2024 players are already gaming their chances, forming their teams, and working to build up their name recognition. Below, we have compiled and rated a list of 24 potential democratic candidates.

Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions of people who didn’t make the cut: Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, Massachusetts Senator Maura Healey, Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, Arizona Senator Kirsten Sinema, and Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards. With that out of the way, let’s go on to our list!

24. Levar Stoney

The junior Senator from Virginia and former Mayor of Richmond has maintained a relatively low profile since joining the senate earlier this year. However, his initial election made national waves as he became the second African American to win statewide office in Virginia, and joined the ranks as one of the four currently serving African Americans in the senate. In his political career, he has been an ally of the Democratic establishment. He was personally recruited for the Senate race by Chuck Schumer, and proved to be one of the stronger democratic fundraisers last year.  Still, in such a wide open field, the young senator has done little to stand out, and currently doesn’t seem to be preparing to run.

23. Joaquin Castro

The recently minted House Minority Leader had big shoes to fill going into his new job, and thus far has been filling them well. Often overshadowed by his twin brother, Joaquin Castro’s new position has given him new found national attention, which naturally brings with it speculation about his political future. In recent months, Castro has been something of a unifier among Democrats, something his predecessor and many other democrats have been lacking in recent years. However, his brother seems much more keen on running, and its very unlikely that they would run against each other, meaning one of their ambitions will have to yield to the other.

22. Stefany Shaheen

Another freshman Senator, Shaheen comes off the heels of a hard fought victory against the political tides of the state. The only Democrat to win Statewide in New Hampshire last year, Shaheen has handled the national spotlight with grace. Since entering the Senate, she has frequently aligned herself with the Sanders-Feingold wing of the party, a contrast from her mother, who was also her predecessor in the Senate. But the memory of Maggie Hassan’s mess of a presidential campaign may still deter her from running herself, and right now Shaheen seems content to stay where she is, although there is still plenty of time for that to change.

21. Bill de Blasio

Speaking of messy campaigns, we come to the outgoing Mayor of New York City Bill De Blasio. While de Blasio has won each of his Citywide elections with ease, his presidential campaign never really took off the ground. Some of that, maybe even most of that, has to do with the candidate himself, but a large chunk has to do with the way his campaign itself. Still, de Blasio has been firm in his stance that he isn’t considering another presidential bid, he may change his tune once he is formally out of office.

20. Seth Moulton

The former Massachusetts Congressman has made plenty of enemies in his political career. One of the more vocally anti-establishment Democrats since leaving office in 2019, Moulton has made it part of his brand to be an outsider candidate. Although this brash attitude endears him with his supporters, it has hurt him among his fellow democrats. Since withdrawing from the 2020 presidential election, Moulton has traveled the country recruiting veterans to run for local political offices, in what some see as a move to build up a network of supporters. Still, Moulton’s position on this list is not related to his shot at winning the nomination, but it more based on the fact that he is likely going to run.

19. Steve Bullock

The Governor-turned-Senator of Montana, Steve Bullock has a potential that most Democrats on this list lack, in that he has won elected office in a red state multiple times. Bullock hasn’t been afraid to take liberal stances on various issues. He is a strong defender of the ACA, he is a proponent of Net Neutrality, and he has led the charge on defending the EPA from Republican cuts. Still, there are a few issues that hold him back. First, he lacks the national profile that others on this list have. Second, he isn’t always in line with the Democratic base, especially on guns (although his stances have changed since he has joined the Senate). Third, Montana makes for a poor fundraising base to start a presidential campaign on. But his personal brand represents something new and interesting for the Democrats, especially when compared with Elizabeth Warren.

TIE: 18 and 17. Sherrod Brown and Russ Feingold

These two are tied because their strengths and weaknesses are basically the same. Both sitting US senators have had lengthy political careers, marked with wins (and loses) in competitive elections. This serves as both a strength and weakness. 2020 showed that on both sides, voters have a desire for fresh faces. Jason Kander and Kamala Harris’ respective campaigns showed that this desire is especially prevalent on the Democratic side. Brown and Feingold are both anything but new faces. Neither, especially Brown, seem likely to run, as Brown faces either re-election or retirement in 2024 and Feingold is expected to face a competitive re-election battle. But on the other side of the coin, Brown and especially Feingold have become leaders of the Democratic party post-Biden. Either one of them could be fearsome candidates, should they choose to run.

16. John Hickenlooper

Hickenlooper can be said to be in a similar situation to Steve Bullock. A popular Governor-turned-Senator, Hickenlooper had several missteps in the 2020 campaign that, when combined with the competitive field, ultimately doomed him. While his position is mostly the same as Bullock, the one thing that places him above Bullock is his ambition. Hickenlooper has shown interest in the office, and has been making the usually candidate moves including the expected trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. He could potentially be a strong candidate if he learns from his mistakes in 2020, but he lacks the wow factor that other candidates higher on this list have.

15. Joe Kennedy

It was obvious that he would be on this list. The proverbial “Crown Prince” of the Democratic party, Kennedy comes from an obvious and well known political pedigree. His grand uncles and grandfather are well known liberal icons, and Kennedy has been known in the national scene since his victory to replace Elizabeth Warren in the senate. He has a strong personal charisma that can’t be understated, and is well connected within the party. Pair this with a (mostly) progressive voting record and you have strong candidate. His detractors have often referred to him as fake, an empty suit, and  “the Democratic Marco Rubio”. He has missed more votes than a majority of Senators, especially a majority of fellow Democrats. Still, the prospect of another Kennedy in the White House has many excited.

14. Dan Biss

The miracle worker from Illinois, he won in back to back upsets to become Governor.  First, defeating two self funding millionaires in the primary, and then another self funding Billionaire incumbent in the general, Biss was able to buck national trends to become one of the few Democratic gains in 2018’s gubernatorial elections. Since taking office, he has governed as a progressive democrat, and has maintained high approval ratings throughout his time in office. But Biss lacks a real national profile. He is not popular enough to make national headlines, nor is he marred in controversy. Few people outside of his home state know who he is, which would hold him back in any presidential bid.

13. Tulsi Gabbard

The Hawaii Congresswoman is both well known and seems inclined to run, giving her a step up over many of the others on the list. However, she often makes herself a target. She met with Assad, she entered the 2020 election at the Convention, she was slow to endorse Elizabeth Warren after the convention, and she met with Assad. That last one is mentioned twice because of how much criticism she received over it. Her positions on foreign policy lead her to regular clashes with fellow Democrats. Still, she has branded herself as an outsider, a progressive, and an underdog, and she brings with her a dedicated following that would certainly support her making another shot at the White House.


12. Julian Castro

The other Castro brother, Julian served as HUD Secretary under Presidents Obama and Biden, and is extremely well connected to the Democratic Establishment. He appealed to younger voters and Hispanics during his short lived 2020 bid. And despite doing poorly in the polls, his fundraising was nothing to scoff at. He certainly has the potential to be a strong contender, although his inexperience definitely held him back, and the fact that Iowa and New Hampshire, critical to a successful presidential bid, are largely white and older, he would have difficulties getting his campaign bid off the ground.

11. Jared Polis

Polis is a candidate with strong potential. Having won narrowly in 2018, Polis staved off the Red Wave in a swing state, something few other democrats where able to accomplish. Since winning office, Polis has enjoyed high approval ratings and has governed more liberally than his predecessor. He's an unknown nationwide, which hurts his potential candidacy, but if enough effort can be put into averting that, then Polis could certainly prove to be a strong candidate.

10. Amy Klobuchar
 
Amy Klobuchar has to be one of the Democrats looking at the 2020 results and wondering “what if I ran?” She passed on a 2020 presidential bid, and instead became a frequent surrogate for Vice President Warren. Had she entered, Klobuchar would have been a serious contender, maybe even have won. Still, what if’s don’t help now, and Klobuchar seems to be at least weighing her odds at a 2024 bid. The only thing holding her back from being higher is the fact that she has also already declared her intention to seek re-election. The legality of her seeking both offices at once is questionable, and the fact that she is up for re-election at all puts her in an awkward position.

9. Gretchen Whitmer

The first term Michigan Governor is an odd choice to appear this high on the list. But she drew national attention with the Keynote at the 2020 DNC. She has also maintained high approval ratings in her home state. She has a level of appeal among each of the different wings of the Democratic Party, and the Midwest is a region that the Democrats have been struggling in. In short, se seems to have everything going for her. But often times, candidates who appear to have everything going for them usually fall apart quick. That’s a curse she would need to break.

8. Gavin Newsom

A bit of an obvious choice, the California Governor benefits from a strong fundraising base and popularity in the delegate heavy state of California. He has proven to be a strong fundraiser as well. Governor of California may be a bit of an obvious candidate, but that isn’t inherently a weakness. With California now part of the Super Tuesday contests, Newsom would have early access to a large pool of delegates early in the nomination contests. Still, his past affairs may come back to bite him, as well as the ambitions of another California politician….

7. Chris Murphy

The Connecticut Senator has made himself known as a staunch advocate for Gun Control, on more than one occasion. Like Amy Klobuchar, he is probably among the many Democrats wondering what would have happened if he ran in 2020. Outside of Gun issues, he is a progressive leaning Democrat, especially in recent years. He has also been one of the more social media savvy Democrats. The combination of a liberal record, his youth and appeal to younger voters, and the fact that he is a more of a fresh face are all strong positives.   But like Klobuchar, he will have to weigh a run against a bid for re-election. Connecticut law allows him to seek two offices at once, but that might not be the best thing for his career.

6. Roy Cooper

The North Carolina Governor has often found himself battling his state legislature for control of the state, but that hasn’t hurt his approvals at home. With a 56% approval rating, the swing state Governor would certainly be a strong candidate in any election. He represents a more moderate, pragmatic type of Democrat, and if Russ Feingold could be said to be the leader of the “progressive wing,” Roy Cooper is certainly the leader of the moderate wing. Unlike others on this list, Cooper won’t have to juggle re-election with a presidential bid because he’s term limited anyway. In some ways, he has become one of the most prominent faces in the fight against Gerrymandering nationwide, and has occasionally found himself in the national spotlight. But as the Democratic base becomes more liberal, Cooper may find himself left behind by the party at large, weighing him down on this list.

5. Beau Biden

Entering the top 5, we have Delaware Governor Beau Biden. There is little to say about Biden that hasn’t been said about his father. He is a candidate so obvious to continue the Biden era policies. Like Cooper, he will be term limited in 2024, so there won’t be much for him to lose if he wants to make the plunge and run . Also like Cooper, his approval ratings have been high throughout his tenure. Currently, he is rated as the most popular Democratic Governor nationwide, and the third most popular overall. 62% of Delaware voters approve of him. He would certainly enter any primary contest with his father’s endorsement, and could very easily become a favorite candidate if he jumped in. In his own right, he has a governing record as a staunch liberal with a pragmatic streak, one who has earned praise among Progressives, Liberals, and Moderates alike. It’s easy to see why he cracks the top 5 of this list.

4.  Cory Booker

Once referred to as the second Obama, Cory Booker really needs no introduction. He is a charismatic, young(ish), African American, with a record as a liberal voice in the Senate. His ties to Wall Street hurt him in 2020, but he has taken steps to rebrand himself as a progressive champion. He has made civil rights and criminal justice reform pet issues of his, and while the ties to Wall Street are an issue for many, it can’t be denied that he had some of the strongest fundraising in 2020. Booker’s candidacy failed because he never fully committed to running. He kept his foot in the door in regards to his Senate seat a big longer than he should have if he wanted to seriously run. But this won’t hold him back in 2024. The other, obvious hurdle that he would have to overcome is the email scandal of 2020. Booker has faced accusations of dirty politics before, but this was to a whole different level. While he insists that his withdrawal had no deal attached to it, it hasn’t stopped people from speculating that he knew more than he let on. Its hard to imagine that this will still be an issue come 2024, but its still worth keeping in mind.

3. Kirsten Gillibrand

If Cory Booker is Obama 2.0, then Gillibrand is Hillary Clinton 2.0. In 2020, Gillibrand won an upset victory in the New Hampshire primary over the former Governor and Senator Maggie Hassan, then promptly fizzled out. Her potential as a candidate is still there, although its unclear if she will run given that her Senate Seat will by up in 24. First elected as a blue dog, Gillibrand has made herself a progressive hero in recent years, especially on Women’s issues. When fellow Senator Al Franken was accused of sexual assault, she was the first to call for his resignation, much to the frustration of her colleagues, even if they eventually came around to the idea. If she could replicate her New Hampshire victory again, she could very easily win the nomination.

2. Jason Kander

The boy wonder from Missouri, Kander made national headlines with a senate ad back in 2016, then found himself in the spotlight again when he defeated incumbent Roy Blunt, then again when he almost won the Iowa Caucus against the better funded, better known Vice President. From there, Kander finished a strong third place in the nominating contests, and played kingmaker at the convention. He has a brand of personal popularity in his home state, and although his approval ratings took a hit during his presidential bid, he maintains a 53% approval rating in an otherwise Republican state. Kander is no Joe Manchin either. He has been a staunch liberal during his time in the Senate. The young, charismatic veteran could be just what the Democratic party needs. But first, he has to win re-election against a strong competitor. And even then, he might not be in the strongest position to run right after his re-election contest. Even then, he isn’t a sure primary winner.

1. Kamala Harris

The obvious pick for the top of the list is last year’s runner up. Kamala Harris is set to coast to re-election in 2022, and from there has a powerful springboard to seek the Nomination. She already ran once, and is still a well known name nationwide. Like Booker and Gillibrand, she has drawn comparisons to Obama and Clinton. Polling indicates that she would enter the primaries as the leading candidate, especially if Kander was to stay out of the race. But she can’t be put at the top of this list without stating the obvious. The 2024 contest is truly going to be her race to lose. Its gonna be up to her to fend off the competition, and she didn’t perform that well in the first two contests last time she ran. Either way, she will certainly be a force to reckon with in 2024.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 37: Fall 2021

Republicans hold Congressional Seat in Texas with relative ease.

September 12th, 2021

In a relatively easy win, Republicans have held Secretary McCaul’s seat in Congress by a 7 point margin. The result is nothing more than an “as expected” for both sides. The district voted for Republican Nikki Haley by 12 points, meaning there was a 5 point swing towards the Democrats.

Texas 10th Congressional District Special Election, 2021

Stacy Hock (R) -- 53.2%
Mike Sigiel (D) -- 46.0%

Senator Dianne Feinstein announces resignations over health concerns.

October 25th, 2021

California’s Senior Senator Dianne Feinstein has announced her early retirement, saying she will step down the first of November citing her ongoing struggle with Heart Disease.

The announcement was largely expected, as Senator Feinstein’s ongoing health struggles have become more and more publicly known and the number of votes she has missed has increased dramatically over the past few months. In a written statement, Feinstein expressed her deep gratitude for the years of support California has given her, and she promised to find other ways to serve as she struggles with disease.

 Her announced departure has thrown the California political scene into a frenzy. Speculation has already swirled about replacements. Governor Gavin Newsom will play a critical role of appointing Senator Feinstein’s replacement, but that won’t stop others from running for the seat.

“An open seat is truly something special,” said Democratic Party Chairman Eric Bauman. The race to replace Feinstein is expected to be crowded, but Bauman identified who he considers to be the three strongest candidates: Attorney General Xavier Becerra, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, and former State Senator Kevin De Leon. No one has yet declared themselves a candidate, but Leon stated he is “seriously considering running.”

2021 Election Results Diaz and Herring win with ease, while Murphy squeaks by on a narrow win.

November 2nd, 2021

Virginia Gubernatorial:

Herring= 54.7%/1,638,144
Stewart= 45.3%/1,356,636

NJ Gubernatorial:

Phil Murphy = 49.7%/1,041,068
Jack Ciattarelli = 48.9%/1,024,311

NYC Mayoral:

Diaz = 70.1%/911,711
O'Reilly = 27.6%/358,962

Other Headlines:

September 7th: Democrats have fundraising advantage ahead of 2022 midterms.
September 15th: Steve Kerrigan declares bid for Massachusetts Governor, as long term rep Steve Lynch announces retirement.
September 23rd: Stacey Abrams declares second bid for Georgia Governor.
October 9th: Health Scare for West Virginia Governor Jim Justice forces him to resign. Special election for Governor will be held in 2022
October 12th: Larry Hogan most popular Governor in the Country, Jim DeMint least popular.
October 15th: Bernie Sanders still the most popular Senator nationwide, Lisa Murkowski least popular amongst constituents.
October 22nd: Missouri Secretary of State Ashcroft will challenge Senator Jason Kander in 2022
November 1st: Hilda Solis takes office as CA Senator. Feinstein draws bipartisan applause in farewell address.
November 3rd: Democrats take control of VA House of Delegates in historic win. Danica Roem becomes first Transgender statewide elected official.
November 9th: Kentucky Governor Allison Grimes to resign for Opioid Committee, cites direction of the Committee.
November 9th: Kevin De Leon declares bid for Feinstein’s seat.
November 10th: Sununu “understands” Grimes’ resignation, says Committee is almost ready to release policy recommendation.
November 12th: Nan Whaley will challenge Portman in Ohio Senate race.
November 18th: Solis will seek a full term in the Senate, undeterred by challengers.
November 22nd: Eric Garcetti is in on the CA senate race.
November 23rd: Republican Travis Allen withdraws from Governor’s race to run for Feinstein’s seat.

Haley Approval Rating:
Approve -- 50%
Disapprove -- 44%
Unsure:6%

Congressional Generic Ballot:
Republicans -- 44%
Democrats -- 42%
Unsure:14%

2020 Polling: Haley vs Generic Democrat
Haley -- 45%
Generic Democrat -- 40%
Unsure/Other: 15%

[Edgeofnight]

Infobox for the above, I am aware the home state is wrong for Ducey, but eh. I'd have to remake it from scratch to fix it.

[Lord Admirale]

Boooooo how does Murphy win reelection??

[Edgeofnight]

Boooooo how does Murphy win reelection??

Cause he's the best governor ever and no one can convince New Jersey otherwise.

On a serious note, NJ is a solid blue state, in a fairly neutral environment, and Ciatterelli doesn't receive a lot of money from the national party, which puts him at a massive monetary disadvantage considering Murphy is loaded.

[Lord Admirale]

Boooooo how does Murphy win reelection??

Cause he's the best governor ever and no one can convince New Jersey otherwise.

Wrong!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/08/1985_NJ_GovElect_Result_by_municipality.svg

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Who is Diaz again?

[Edgeofnight]

Who is Diaz again?

Ruben Diaz Jr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rub%C3%A9n_D%C3%ADaz_Jr.

[Edgeofnight]

RETCON

I have decided to retcon the results of the 2018 New York Gubernatorial election, which in turn triggers a few other retcons.

Basically, Miner enters the race as an independent as she plans to do irl. In a more republican enviorment, Stefanik enters the governor's race and wins the nomination at the convention, mostly because of her fundraising. This, combined with Nixon and the Green party, and the national environment being pro republican, leads to a chain reaction of Cuomo losing the 2018 NY gubernatorial election. This in turn means that he does not run for President in 2020, nor is he considered or considering becoming a candidate for 2024. His 2020 supporters mostly divide themselves among de Blasio, Booker, and Gillibrand.

At the time she takes office, Stefanik is the second youngest governor in the nation, and the youngest governor in New York. She is eventually considered as a presidential candidate, but declines to run. She later is on Haley's vp short list, but is eliminated early on.

[Orwell]

This reminds me of something I've seen on Althist

[Edgeofnight]

Expect an update in the next two or three days

[Lord Admirale]

Expect an update in the next two or three days

[RC]

Expect an update in the next two or three days

[Edgeofnight]

Part 38: Winter 2021-2022

Justice Anthony Kennedy has passed away peacefully

Supreme Justice Anthony Kennedy has passed away peacefully in his home, a spokeswoman for the Court has confirmed.

The former 9th Circuit Appeals judge, Kennedy was first appointed to the court in 1988, replacing Justice Lewis F. Powell. In recent years, Justice Kennedy was the deciding vote on numerous cases, including such landmark cases as Obergefell v. Hodges and Citizens United v FEC. His tenure on the court is one of the longest in American History. Kennedy has often been referred to as the courts “swing vote” a title he intensely disliked.  

President Haley, in a statement released shortly after the news broke, expressing “deep sorrow for his family, his loved ones, and the nation. The country has lost one of its finest legal minds.”  He is survived by his wife and three children.

Haley nominates Patrick Wyrick to replace Kennedy

Oklahoma Supreme Court Justice Patrick Wyrick has been selected by President Haley to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy. The forty year old conservative justice has earned praise from Senate Republicans, who have all praised Wyrick’s nomination. However, Wyrick has earned criticism from Senate Democrats. Several republicans, including Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Tom Cotton, have called the attacks politically motivated, Cruz particularly attacked Senators Jason Kander and Kamala Harris, saying that their attacks were motivated by ambition, and that they where ignoring Wyrick’s credentials as a judge.

Other Headlines:

December 8th: Senator Matt Bevin endorses Paul’s primary challenger as Conway rules out challenge to Beshear in Democratic Primary.  
December 15th: Senator Hirono (D-HI) to resign over health concerns. Governor Hanabusa to appoint Shan Tsutsui as interim replacement. Tsutsui to run in the primary.
December 18th: Templeton to resign as Chief of Staff ahead of expected run for South Carolina Governor. Bossie to serve as interim Chief of Staff as search for replacement begins.
December 19th: American Bar Association split on Wyrick's nomination to the Supreme Court, rated "Qualified" with a minority rating "Not Qualified."
January 5th: Ambassador Heck rebukes efforts to draft him for the Senate race, continuing Republicans struggle to find a candidate in Nevada.
January 20th: Templeton to declare run for South Carolina Governor, Challenging DeMint in the Republican Primary.
January 21st: Haley delivers "State of the Union," touting sucessful first year and laying out an agenda for 'civil reform" and an ambitious foreign policy agenda. Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear delivers the State of the Union Response.
January 22nd: Rubio to reintroduce Immigration bill, Republican leaders hoping to avoid fight on issue before the midterm
January 23rd: Fmr. Virginia Governor Ed Gillespie to become new White House Chief of Staff.
February 7th: Bill De Blasio in on NY-GOV, frontrunner to Challenge Stefanik.
February 9th: Congressman Setti Warren to run for Massachusetts Governor
February 23rd: Massive Earthquake in Mexico impacts 100,000.

Haley Approval Rating:
Approve -- 49%
Disapprove -- 41%
Unsure --  10%

Congressional Generic Ballot
Republicans -- 46%
Democrats -- 43%
Unsure -- 11%

2024 Polling: Haley vs Generic Democrat
Haley -- 48%
Generic Democrat -- 39%
Unsure/Other: 13%

Approval of Patrick Wyrick's nomination to the Supreme Court:
Approve -- 46%
Disapprove -- 40%
Unsure/No Opinion -- 14%

[Lord Admirale]

Senator Tom Kean (R-NJ) has also announced his intention to vote against Jenkins, stating Jenkins stance on coal and climate change should disqualify him.

[Edgeofnight]

Biden's Supreme Court Picks

Taking office, Biden already had one Supreme Court seat to fill. With a Democratic Senate, it seemed unlikely that whoever he nominated would be rejected by the Senate. But for this first seat, his nominee was essentially chosen. To the ire of Progressives, Biden pledged to renominate Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. He did just that, and within a month of taking office, Judge Merrick Garland was confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court, becoming its 113th Associate Justice by a margin of 60 - 37 votes. But Garland was not Biden’s only pick.

In April of 2017, just two months after Garland was confirmed to the bench, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg announced her intentions to retire. Speculation swirled about Biden’s potential appointments, and the President released a short list of 7 names CFPB Director Richard Cordray, California Supreme Court Justices Goodwin Liu and Leondra Kruger, Ninth Circuit Judge Michelle Friedland, DC Circuit Court Judge Sri Srinivasan, District Court Judges Andrea Wood and Ketanji Brown Jackson, although interviews were conducted with several other potential candidates. After a few weeks, Biden had narrowed the list to three names: Kruger, Friedland, and Cordray. Senate Republicans seemed displeased with any nomination to the Supreme Court, and Senate Minority Leader promised to fight any “activist” judges appointed. When Biden announced Kruger as his appointment, McConnell and Senate Republicans promised to filibuster her nomination until a new judge was nominated. Schumer attempted negotiations with McConnell, but McConnell would not budge. Thus, Schumer’s hand was forced. The Senate Democrats invoked the Nuclear Option to get Kruger on the bench. She was confirmed in the end by a margin of 54-42.

Biden would get a third appointment, despite his short term in office. In June of 2018, Judge Stephen Breyer announced his retirement. The nomination process around Breyer’s replacement attracted less attention than Ginsburg’s, and the short list looked similar. The final four candidates this time where Paul J. Watford, Srinivasan,  Ketanji Brown Jackson, and Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. Biden’s ultimate pick was Cuéllar, another California Supreme Court Justice. Again, Republicans opposed this judicial nominee, but there was not much that could be done about it. Cuellar was confirmed in August of 2018, just a few months before Republicans would storm back to control of the Senate.

The Roberts Court (2019)
Chief Justice
John Roberts (b. 1955, conservative, appointed by G. W Bush in 2005)

Associate Justices
Anthony Kennedy (b. 1936, swing, appointed by Reagan in 1988)
Clarence Thomas (b. 1948, conservative, appointed by G. H. W. Bush in 1991)
Samuel Alito (b. 1950, conservative, appointed by G. W. Bush in 2006)
Sonia Sotomayor (b. 1954, liberal, appointed by Obama in 2009)
Elena Kagan (b. 1960, liberal, appointed by Obama in 2010)
Merrick Garland (b. 1952, liberal, appointed by Biden in 2017)
Leondra Kruger (b. 1976, liberal, appointed by Biden in 2017)
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar (b. 1972, liberal, appointed by Biden in 2018)

By Ideology:

SOTOMAYOR  CUELLAR  KRUGER  KAGAN  GARLAND KENNEDY ROBERTS  ALITO  THOMAS