Wisconsin Megathread

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Has Vinehout laid out any sort of timetable? At this point, it seems like she is the only credible candidate left for the Dems in a state that they should be putting a lot of effort into.

Who else is on the Dem bench in Wisconsin? I've never worked in the state and I'm not really too familiar with its politics.

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Baldwin votes reliably with Elizabeth Warren and is very much in the mold of Russ Feingold. She will likely benefit from being a good fit for the Democratic electorate of 2018, despite not being an ideal fit for the state.

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Has Russ Feingold ruled this race out?

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Early ads did pretty well at destroying the popularity of Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, etc. in 2014.

Is there actual evidence that was the (or a major) reason for their defeat, or was it just the case that there were early ads, and it so happened that the race tightened later on, and they lost, so people just assumed it was because of the ads? Looking at the NC polls from 2014, Hagan's weakening in October through election day seems more consistent with an intensifying election where voters started making their minds up. Otherwise not much else seemed to change.

I don't think I've seen a single study that showed political ads really have much impact at all, at least on high-profile races, and when they do, it is short-term only, and wears off within a couple weeks. I used to put a lot more stock into them, but over the past 2 years, it has been really hard to find a very clear-cut instance where they played a notable part.

Ads are often much more effective in primary races, where party polarization plays less of a factor and voters are more easily won over on persuasion, with exceptions.

Good, positive ads can put a candidate on the map. In Kander's race last year we saw a major bump after the gun ad went up. This effect is usually seen with positive ads for candidates with low name recognition. If a campaign for an established candidate releases a strong ad (positive or negative), the goal is usually to generate favorable headlines and media coverage, such as HRC's 2008 phone call ad or her 2016 "children are listening" ad.

Attack ads - if they're good - have generally the same intended effect, but to weaken candidates with low name recognition instead of boost them. Occasionally a good attack ad can also drag down what we call a "known unknown" - a candidate with high name recognition but who has baggage or other vulnerabilities of some kind that the electorate at-large is unaware of or not thinking/hearing about. Mitt Romney deployed this tactic effectively against Newt Gingrich in Iowa 2012.

Bad ads can backfire on a candidate, but as you noted this effect often wears off in due time. Timing is important though, as Liddy Dole learned in 2008.

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Evers/Vinehout teaming up would probably be the strongest option for Dems, right?

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What are the odds Evers wins but Kleefisch is re-elected? Is she likely to outperform or underperform Walker?

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Dems plan to quickly pivot to general election to avoid being caught flat-footed in Wisconsin governor's race

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Source

Trying to avoid the 2012 Tommy Thompson situation

Best way to do this would be to pull a DeWine-Husted.

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A close former colleague of mine has been working for an interest group unaffiliated with any of the campaigns, says that internal numbers show the primary increasingly becoming an Evers-Mitchell race, with Soglin maintaining a stubborn base of support. Vinehout sinks after attacks on her A rating from NRA.