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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« on: September 10, 2008, 08:13:24 PM »
From now until the Election I will post 538.com's EV map, starting with 9/9/08.



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D): 260
Toss-up:13
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2008, 01:17:31 AM »
9/10/08



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D): 264
Toss-up: 9


Changes in Sen. McCain's direction.[/b]

CA: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
NM: Likely Obama to Leans Obama
CO: Toss-up Obama to Toss-up McCain
ND: Leans McCain to Safe McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
GA: Likely McCain to Safe McCain


In Sen. Obama's direction[/b]

IA: Leans Obama to Likely Obama
NH: Toss-up Obama to Leans Obama
ME: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2008, 06:05:28 PM »
9/11/08



Sen. Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 264
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 245
Toss-ups: 29


Changes in Sen. McCain directions[/b]

None

Changes in Sen. Obama directions[/b]

OH: Leans McCain to Toss-up McCain.
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2008, 06:13:26 PM »
Your Welcome guys, it gives me something to do. I'm shocked that 538.com has SD has Likely McCain.
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2008, 03:18:36 PM »
09/12/08



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen Joe Biden (D): 259
Toss-up: 14


Changes in Sen. McCain's direction[/b]

IL: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
NM: Leans Obama to Toss-up Obama
OH: Toss-up McCain to Leans McCain
OR: Likely Obama to Leans Obama

Changes in Sen. Obama's direction:[/b]

AZ: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2008, 03:47:19 PM »
That is what the site says, I was shocked about IL and AZ both, but hey I don't do the numbers they do.
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2008, 06:17:20 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2008, 09:42:20 PM by KeyKeeper »
09/13/08



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D): 259
Toss-up: 14



Changes in Sen. McCain's direction[/b]

SD: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
IA: Likely Obama to Leans Obama
MD: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
PA: Likely Obama to Leans Obama
NY: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
CT: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
MA: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
ME: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
MI: Safe Obama to Likely Obama


Changes in Sen. Obama's direction[/b]

ND: Safe McCain to Likely McCain


I'm going to start something new tonight. From this date onward I will also post 538 Regression results too. If you look on their web-site that is how they get there EV numbers. [/i]

This is the key I am using:
.1-4%: 30%
5-9%: 40%
10-15%:60%
16 and up: 80%



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 291
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 247
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2008, 07:34:33 PM »
09/14/08



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 265
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 14


In Sen. McCain's direction

AZ: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
MN: Likely Obama to Lean Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

IA: Lean Obama to Likely Obama


538 Regression Results




Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 291
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 247
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2008, 09:03:25 AM »
09/15/08



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 265
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 14


In Sen. McCain's direction

WI: Likely Obama to Leans Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

None


538 Regression Results




Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 291
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 247
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2008, 02:44:17 AM »
09/16/08



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 5


In Sen. McCain's direction

CO: Toss-up McCain to Leans McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
In Sen. Obam's direction

NY: Likely McCain to Safe McCain


538 Regression Results




Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 264
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2008, 07:28:51 PM »
Quote from: Likely Voter on September 17, 2008, 04:08:42 PM
Quote from: KeyKeeper on September 17, 2008, 02:44:17 AM
09/16/08



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 5


In Sen. McCain's direction

CO: Toss-up McCain to Leans McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
In Sen. Obam's direction

NY: Likely McCain to Safe McCain


538 Regression Results




Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 264




Question: What is the top map...is that based on his 'projection' numbers?
Also why do the 'regression' map instead of the 'snapshot' numbers. The snapshot seems to be his guess as to where the race is today. So with 'snapshot' and 'projection' you would have their guesses at today and November

The regression map takes in count for things that the snapshot doesn't. Also the top map is 538.com map of the safe/likely/lean/toss-up map.
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2008, 07:57:22 AM »
Ah Ok, well I will do the snapshot. Thanks for pointing that out to me guys. I will update the map for yesterday in a few. I was very busy yesterday.
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2008, 04:54:26 PM »

09/17/08



Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 265
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 260
Toss-up: 13


In Sen. McCain's direction

ND: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
NH: Lean Obama to toss-up Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

CA: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
CO: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
CT: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
DE: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
HI: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
MA: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
MD: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
NM: Toss-up Obama to Lean Obama
OR: Lean Obama to Likely Obama



538 Snapshot




Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 264
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2008, 05:46:54 PM »

Yep, I'm getting ready to post today's update. It is quite a different map from yesterday's map.
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2008, 06:06:37 PM »
09/18/08



Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
Toss-up: 38


In Sen. McCain's direction

None

In Sen. Obam's direction

CO: Toss-up McCain to Lean Obama
FL: Likely McCain to Lean McCain
IL: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
IN: Likely McCain to Lean McCain
ME: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
MN: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
NH: Toss-up Obama to Lean Obama
NM: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
NV: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
OH: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
VA: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
WI: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
WV: Likely McCain to Lean McCain

538 Snapshot




Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 265
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2008, 04:25:27 AM »
09/19/08



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
Toss-up: 38


In Sen. McCain's direction

None

In Sen. Obam's direction

MT: Likely McCain to Lean McCain
ND: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
SD: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
LA: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
MO: Likely McCain to Lean McCain
AZ: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
GA: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
PA: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
OH: Toss-up McCain to Toss-up Obama
VA: Toss-up McCain to Toss-up Obama
NV: Toss-up McCain to Toss-up Obama

538 Snapshot




Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227


[/quote]
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2008, 10:46:01 PM »
09/20/08



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 293
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 200
Toss-up: 45


In Sen. McCain's direction

None

In Sen. Obam's direction

OH: Toss-up Obama to Lean Obama
VA: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain


538 Snapshot




Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2008, 09:57:19 PM »
09/21/08



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 200
Toss-up: 65


In Sen. McCain's direction

OH: Lean Obama to Toss-up Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

AR: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
NC: Likely McCain to Lean McCain


538 Snapshot




Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2008, 10:51:12 AM »
I will try to update this, this afternoon. I've been very busy.
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2008, 06:02:00 PM »
09/22/08



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 286
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
Toss-up: 25


In Sen. McCain's direction

FL: Toss-up McCain to Lean McCain
SD: Likely McCain to Safe McCain

In Sen. Obam's direction

MS: Safe McCain to Likely McCian
OR: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
SC: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
TX: Safe mcCain to Likely McCain
VA: Toss-up Obama to Lean Obama


538 Snapshot




Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2008, 08:12:21 AM »
09/23/08



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 286
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 200
Toss-up: 52


In Sen. McCain's direction

AZ: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
MS: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain

In Sen. Obam's direction

CO: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
FL: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
WA: Likely Obama to Safe Obama


538 Snapshot




Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2008, 11:43:51 AM »
09/23/08



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 282
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 200
Toss-up: 56


In Sen. McCain's direction

CO: Likely Obama to Lean Obama
MI: Likely Obama to Lean Obama
MT: Lean McCain to Likely McCain
NH: Lean Obama to Toss-up Obama
NV: Toss-up Obama to Toss-up McCain
OH: Toss-up Obama to Toss-up McCain
OR: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
PA: Likely Obama to Lean Obama
SC: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
WA: Safe Obama to Likely Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

None

538 Snapshot




Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227




*Note Theit snapshot has NV and OH for Obama*
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KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09
« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2008, 08:22:33 PM »
I will update this tomorrow, sorry about not doing it in the past few days.
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