2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[new_patomic]

I'm not really understanding the polling right now.

Besides the noticeable divergence between some state polls versus national polls, whatever district polls have been released (even if they're mostly partisan internals) look far more favorable than what the GCB would suggest. And both parties seem pretty sure that most of the front-line members are doing pretty well, or at worst are looking at 50/50 odds.

[new_patomic]

Bustos to Lean-D makes little sense to me, given the best indication we have of the race is suspect Republican internals which still shows her up by 5/6 points. But whatever.

[new_patomic]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

Perhaps people are rightfully too scared to do this after what happened in 2016.

Yeah, while I don't deny that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters out there, I don't think we're going to see a significant overperformance by Congressional Republicans compared to Trump in part because of this.

A lack of ticket-splitters, however, wouldn't be great news for Democrats in AK, KS, MT, or SC.

The alternative is that there is ticket-splitting, but it's just canceling itself out in national/state numbers.

[new_patomic]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

Perhaps people are rightfully too scared to do this after what happened in 2016.

Yeah, while I don't deny that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters out there, I don't think we're going to see a significant overperformance by Congressional Republicans compared to Trump in part because of this.

A lack of ticket-splitters, however, wouldn't be great news for Democrats in AK, KS, MT, or SC.

The alternative is that there is ticket-splitting, but it's just canceling itself out in national/state numbers.

Exactly. For instance, we can probably guess that Dan Crenshaw and Brian Fitzpatrick will far outperform Trump, while Jared Golden and Collin Peterson will far outperform Biden.

I always think back to how Duckworth got a similar margin as Clinton in 2016 (just 2 percent difference), but vastly outperformed Clinton in Southern Illinois while running behind her in the suburbs. Point being aggregate figures can mask some notable disparities at the local level.

[new_patomic]

Something hilarious about moving IA from Lean-Dem to Lean-Rep without even stopping at Toss-Up