Bernie Sanders-Jeremy Corbyn

[American2020]

Do you think Sanders will be wipeout like Jeremy Corbyn at the general election ?

It is always darkest, John McCain used to say, before it gets totally black. So it is for the American center-left right now. Bernie Sanders is currently favored to win the nomination, a prospect that would make Donald Trump a heavy favorite to win reelection, and open the possibility of a Corbyn-esque wipeout. While Sanders has not expanded beyond a minority of the party, he has consolidated support of the party’s left wing, and while its mainstream liberal wing is split between numerous contenders, it is hard to see how the situation is likely to improve soon. Indeed, it could get worse, much worse.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/democratic-primary-biden-bernie-sanders-buttigieg-klobuchar-bloomberg-liberal.html

[redjohn]

"a prospect that would make Donald Trump a heavy favorite to win reelection"

This is dumb and based on no data. I think Trump is slightly favored no matter who the nominee is; if it were Warren/Buttigieg he would be heavily favored.

[SN2903]

Yes

[TML]

Corbyn was brought down by two things:

-He did not adequately push back against accusations of anti-Semitism against him. Regardless of how true or untrue you thought those allegations were, the effects on him were similar to the effects of the Swift Boat attacks on John Kerry.
-He wavered on Brexit. Back in 2017, his position was that it was a done deal, but by 2019 he had switched to potentially reversing Brexit after a second referendum if the results of that referendum reflected such sentiment. Thus, Johnson and the Conservatives were able to capitalize on this by making the election about Brexit.

Without these two things, I think Corbyn would probably be PM right now, since most Brits actually support his core policy proposals.

With Sanders, he is currently more popular than Corbyn was during the latter stages of the British election campaign last year. If he can sustain this popularity, he should be able to win; however, I have noticed that he has not been aggressively going after his primary opponents. If that carries over to the general election, this could prove to be his Achilles heel.

[Xing]

We really needed ANOTHER Sanders=Corbyn/Sanders will lose in a landslide thread

[Adam Griffin]

I haven't listened to rich white f[inks]s basically since I hit puberty, and I'm not about to start listening to them now.

[DrScholl]

It's possible. The similarity is in the fact that Corbyn's base never believed that he would lose and refused to even entertain the possibility. You always have to acknowledge that losing is a possibility. Sanders being popular right now doesn't mean that barrage of GOP attack ads couldn't change that.

All that aside, Sanders is already saying that he would look at compromising with Republicans which could signal a shift to the center heading into the election. If Sanders is the nominee he is probably going to sound slightly less left than during the primary.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-02-06-20/h_0bf7b73baea014964fd9ead425f1e0d3

Bernie Sanders said he – as president – would take the idea of compromising with Republicans on health care on a “case-by-case” basis, arguing that he could convince the American public to join him.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I have a friend that works with the UK Electoral Commission and I've had quite a few conversations with him about this, so I could go on a long winded rant about my answer.  But in short:  no.  The comparisons aren't apt.  

One of the biggest reasons in my mind is the mood surrounding the UK election.  Voters in Britain were angry at and tired of the Parliamentary deadlock.   People (especially leavers) were sick of the referendum results being hung up and pushed back.  And this frustration seemed to spill over into the non-insignificant portion of Leave-Labour voters.  

Corbyn did very little to assuage this frustration.  Whereas Boris Johnson was very clear on his position and spoke very clearly to this position, Corbyn was quite wishy-washy.   This killed him and the Labour Party on two fronts:  (1) it allowed Johnson and the Tories to fill that void, assuring on-the-fence voters that they would be taken care of if they voted blue and (2) it decreased the enthusiasm amongst Labour voters.  I won't even get into the splitting effects that the other parties had.  

Sanders doesn't face these challenges.  He faces OTHER challenges, but there isn't a Brexit wedge issue upon which the election will singly hinge.  Not yet, anyway.  

[Orser67]

Not a wipeout like Corbyn. I do think he's the weakest candidate, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

maeks u think

[The Dowager Mod]

Not a big wipeout like Corbyn but I don't think Sanders can beat the Angry Creamsicle.

[TML]

All that aside, Sanders is already saying that he would look at compromising with Republicans which could signal a shift to the center heading into the election. If Sanders is the nominee he is probably going to sound slightly less left than during the primary.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-02-06-20/h_0bf7b73baea014964fd9ead425f1e0d3

Bernie Sanders said he – as president – would take the idea of compromising with Republicans on health care on a “case-by-case” basis, arguing that he could convince the American public to join him.

I don't think this is necessarily an indication of Sanders moving in a more establishment-oriented direction. It could also be interpreted as him working with Republican legislators only on issues where they actually agree with him (e.g. with Rand Paul on reducing US military activity overseas).

[McGarnagle]

Not a big wipeout like Corbyn but I don't think Sanders can beat the Angry Creamsicle.

What makes you think Biden can?

[DrScholl]

All that aside, Sanders is already saying that he would look at compromising with Republicans which could signal a shift to the center heading into the election. If Sanders is the nominee he is probably going to sound slightly less left than during the primary.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-02-06-20/h_0bf7b73baea014964fd9ead425f1e0d3

Bernie Sanders said he – as president – would take the idea of compromising with Republicans on health care on a “case-by-case” basis, arguing that he could convince the American public to join him.

I don't think this is necessarily an indication of Sanders moving in a more establishment-oriented direction. It could also be interpreted as him working with Republican legislators only on issues where they actually agree with him (e.g. with Rand Paul on reducing US military activity overseas).

In the context of what he said he specifically mentioned health care as an area where he would compromise with Republicans on a case by case basis.

[Podgy the Bear]

Not a big wipeout like Corbyn but I don't think Sanders can beat the Angry Creamsicle.

What makes you think Biden can?

Biden probably can't either, but at least he will get the moderates and independents to come out in the purple areas that the congressional Democrats won in 2018.  It will be a bloodbath if Sanders is the nominee.