Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates. (user search)
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  Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates.  (Read 33679 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« on: May 10, 2014, 07:08:55 AM »

And yes, in some states, republicans are too conservative and they could do much better if they were more moderate, the South Carolina Republican Party, and I fail to see where hackery is. I have said too that Republicans in some blue states were really competitive, like in Oregon, Nevada, Connecticut,... I have also critized the OH democrat party for being a mess and for failing to win some toss up/lean D state senate seat.

Huh?  The SCGOP at present controls all nine statewide offices, the General Assembly, and all but one member of the Congressional delegation.  While they aren't entirely dominated by wingnuts, they certainly are predominating and I fail to see how they could possibly do better than they are doing even if they did take a turn towards being moderate.
The SCDEM currently holds 5 senates seats in conservative area. So yes, they could do better.

You are not going to have every seat go monolithically the way of their PVI. IF that happend CT would look like HI and there would be next to no political competition in the state. In fact the sheer dominace of the one party would tend to push swing voters in those not as pro-Dem seats to vote for the right Republican. Western PA used to be Democratic, Philly Burbs and CT Republican and there are towns and cities with politicians that still reflect this phenomenon and thus produce candidates who can win districts their party otherwise would have no business winning.

Using that to judge the condition of a state party is over generalizing from too little data. "CT is strong, SC is a mess" simply because in the former the GOP holds a few contrarian PVI seats and vice versa illustrates plainly what I mean. SC is nearing Texas levels of Dem exclusion from statewide offices and the GOP has solid majorities even without those handful of districts. That said the SC GOP is a mess because it is factionalized and not just between tea party and moderate but also between upland former-Democrat porker barrels and more fiscally conservatives to libertarian types like Sanford on the coast.

CT failed to deliver a single House seat, the Senate seat or hold Governorship for the GOP in one of the best GOP years in decades.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2014, 07:52:35 AM »

I never said SC was like TX, I said it was getting close to being like TX. Frankly, I don't see Haley losing, but we will have to see.

The Connecticut GOP produced a weak candidate in CT-04 and the establishment went with money above all else as their criteria for selecting a candidate once Dodd got out and ended up with a dud candidate for Senate. Simmons would have done far better, even with far less money. He had connections to eastern CT, better backstory contrast particularily once the scandal concerning Blumenthal's service emerged and a history of winning or coming close in tough races. McMahon had money, no political experience and a controversial business background to defend. I am pretty sure there was enough GOP money in Fairfield to float Simmons up to 46%-48% of the vote at a far lower price tag overall. I have read some analysis that says Simmons could have helped Foley in Eastern CT and possibly helped to boost him into the Governors mansion. It says something when Ann Coulter has a better feel for how to win then the state party.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2014, 08:11:11 AM »

I agree with you about Nevada. Historically the party establishement has always gotten what is had wanted and it has usually been a beast. The one time that it didn't was in 2010 and then only for the Senate and then only because former NVGOP chair Sue Lowden imploded just in time to fall pray to Angle's TPE backed surge. Never would have happeend though had Lowden not provided that opening though, contrary to any claims by Paulists who like to think they took her out for stopping their attempt to take the delegation in 2008.

It says alot that the same NV GOP rimary electorate that nominated Angle, also primaried a Conservative Governor in favor of a moderate former prosecutor. Yes, yes, Gibbons was scandal plagued, but the same applied to Ernie Fletcher, yet he managed to shield himself by playing the Conservative card and in process costing us the Governorship of Kentucky. Basically in my view, the people really didn't know what they were getting with Angle and the best proof of that is that the last time she was polled for something (the NV-02 special) she was getting single digits in the GOP primary that the establishement went to court to avoid, not wanting take any chances if I recall.
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