NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/sengianaris/status/1430956235420053506
https://twitter.com/joncampbellgan/status/1430957448391798792
https://twitter.com/joncampbellgan/status/1430944375543058438

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1433138451516383232

[brucejoel99]

AG Tish James is considering running....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/letitia-james-discussing-run-for-new-york-governor-after-cuomos-fall.html

I hope she decides to not run & just run for re-election in the end. Queen Hochul is owed an open mind & a chance to lead.

[brucejoel99]

Great news!

May the great people of New York finally get support a governor that backs Democrats.

¿Qué? IIRC, Hochul vehemently hated the IDC. She was just muzzled from speaking about it by her then-boss who didn't.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/katieglueck/status/1445714877809508355?s=21

Never let it be said that de Blasio doesn't have a fetish for humiliating shame, because he clearly does.

[brucejoel99]

My suspicion is that James always planned on running 4 gov in 2026 after Cuomo would likely retire. State AGs have often been frontrunners for the top job in an open race, see Cuomo himself and Spitzer before. Then after the harassment scandal surfaced, it was widely expected Cuomo would never resign or be impeached and consequently open up a chance for her to run against the scandal plagued incumbent (remember they were considered allies in 2018). That would have been the most formidable primary challenge for him. Now that the dude is gone, James had just 2 options: Run anyway to get the job she long wanted, or essentially end her ambitions for said position. If Hochul is retained for a full term, it's reasonable to assume she'll run again in 2026 and retire after a 2nd full term. So we're tlaking about 2030 here, and that's too late for James as she will be 72 (like Hochul). She'll be old news then and younger candidates aim to become gov, perhaps from the House bench or Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin. Challenging Hochul in 2026 (if she runs again) is harder than 2022. So for James it's either now or never.

I don't see why it's really now-or-never for her. She could've just coasted on as state A.G. & even at 72 in 2030 (which blows me the f**k away to think about because she currently looks amazing for 63), she'd still be one of the biggest names to get in, presuming that she'd still be the incumbent A.G. After all, a 78-year-old just got elected to the literal presidency, & he's already said that he'll seek a 2nd-term at 82. If a 2030 primary were to consist of the likes of James, Benjamin, & Adams, you'd have to think that James would be the favorite or, at least, co-frontrunner with Benjamin, presuming that Adams continues the tradition of all NYC mayors being unelectable dumpster fires by the end of their term.

[brucejoel99]

Sidenote: Not feeling the odd Tish James logo (any meaning to the big red ball I'm not getting?), but have a feeling she'll do well here in Buffalo.

Why do you have a feeling that James will do well in literal Hochul country?

[brucejoel99]

According to Politico, James just wasn't engaged by the gubernatorial campaign in the same way that she's been engaged by all of her previous campaigns, was & remains focused on doing Trump stuff as A.G., & thus concluded that it never really made much sense to try & switch jobs in the first place. Honestly, it just sounds like she ran for Governor because it's what was near-universally expected of her - after all, not only "Almost Governor," but she literally brought Cuomo down - even though it may not have been what she really wanted to do. Which, y'know: good for her, unironically. To paraphrase Endgame (sorry, I'm on a bit of a Marvel kick right now in preparation for No Way Home), "everyone fails at who they're supposed to be, but the measure of a person, of a [public servant], is how well they succeed at being who they are."

[brucejoel99]

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?

She would get to appoint somebody new, but short of her appointing somebody else who's already qualified for the primary ballot (i.e., Ana Maria Archila, a progressive endorsed by AOC who's Benjamin's only primary challenger) or short of him winning the nomination in the primary & then resigning so that the state party's executive committee can fill the resultant vacancy in the nomination with Hochul's selection, there's no way for her nominee to be the Lt. Gov Democratic nominee.

[brucejoel99]

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?

She would get to appoint somebody new, but short of her appointing somebody else who's already qualified for the primary ballot (i.e., Ana Maria Archila, a progressive endorsed by AOC who's Benjamin's only primary challenger) or short of him winning the nomination in the primary & then resigning so that the state party's executive committee can fill the resultant vacancy in the nomination with Hochul's selection, there's no way for her nominee to be the Lt. Gov Democratic nominee.

There's also Diana Reyna, who's apparently running with Suozzi. I guess she's qualified for the ballot as well.

Ah, when I last checked, only Benjamin & Archila had qualified, my b. In any event, Reyna - being a moderate - would presumably be similar-enough to Hochul, even if she's actively-enough to her right to be co-challenging her from the right with Suozzi. However, the legislative endorsement momentum evidently appears to already be swinging behind Archila...

[brucejoel99]

Would it be possible for Benjamin's name to remain on the ballot, win the primary, and then withdraw and be replaced by a candidate of the party's choice?

Theoretically, yes. Politically, no.

[brucejoel99]

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?

She would get to appoint somebody new, but short of her appointing somebody else who's already qualified for the primary ballot (i.e., Ana Maria Archila, a progressive endorsed by AOC who's Benjamin's only primary challenger) or short of him winning the nomination in the primary & then resigning so that the state party's executive committee can fill the resultant vacancy in the nomination with Hochul's selection, there's no way for her nominee to be the Lt. Gov Democratic nominee.

There's also Diana Reyna, who's apparently running with Suozzi. I guess she's qualified for the ballot as well.

Ah, when I last checked, only Benjamin & Archila had qualified, my b. In any event, Reyna - being a moderate - would presumably be similar-enough to Hochul, even if she's actively-enough to her right to be co-challenging her from the right with Suozzi. However, the legislative endorsement momentum evidently appears to already be swinging behind Archila...

How much do these endorsements matter? I think Rayna is the better qualified candidate from these two.

I mean, when we're talking about New York legislators & all of the outreach-based connections that entails, it's not "not a lot." Plus, it's a fast-moving political situation: Benjamin resigned less than 24 hours ago, so if legislative momentum is already swinging as speedily behind Archila as the earlier tweet suggests (as opposed to one mere anonymous Democratic consultant saying that Hochul should consider Reyna), then a Reyna candidacy lacking much, if any non-Suozzi institutional support could find itself dead before it could even seize the opportunity to really get off of the new, Benjamin-less ground.

[brucejoel99]

Would it be possible for Benjamin's name to remain on the ballot, win the primary, and then withdraw and be replaced by a candidate of the party's choice?

Theoretically, yes. Politically, no.

If only voters understood these complex schemes.

I mean, there has to be at least one person in the NYDP offering the suggestion that the person whom Hochul ends up appointing to succeed Benjamin should just 'seek' the nomination on a "Fill in the bubble next to Benjamin on your ballot to cast a vote for me" message, right? Because Benjamin's name does still remain on the ballot, & the NYDP would fill the vacancy (presumably with Hochul's replacement) if he somehow won. And after all, it'd be a helluva lot easier than running a write-in candidacy, which worked for Murkowski & Thurmond before her, although of course, it'd obviously carry the unfortunate post-indictment political baggage of having to say "a vote for Brian Benjamin is a vote for me" in this instance.

[brucejoel99]

If Reyna wins the nom will New York be the first state with two women as Gov and Lt. Gov?

Going from 0-100 real quick on the progress bar

NY actually already became that first state when Hochul became Gov. & ASC became Acting Lt., but yes, Hochul & Reyna-or-Archila will be the first elected all-woman gubernatorial ticket in American history.