NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[brucejoel99]

OTOH Mitt Romney lost in 2012 and went on to become a senator so...

Poetic karma for all of those asses who told her to go away while, for some reason, never telling Romney to do the same.

[brucejoel99]

Hillary Clinton campaign staffer teases idea of Gubernatorial campaign.

I mean, maybe? Genius political move by the NY Democratic Party if they could recruit her to be the savior of the office. Puts any AOC/Teachout/Nixon hopes dead on arrival as well. Party might even cancel the primary in that case.

https://twitter.com/GradyKeefe/status/1423316157323517954?s=19

Hillary would win the general, but she'd lose the primary.

The base hates her more than Cuomo.

What planet are you living on? The Dem base likes Hillary.

The Dem base is almost all Sanders supporters and believes Hillary should have dropped out in his favor in 2016.

Worked out really well in OH-11.

And in, y'know, last year's presidential primary that Bernie definitely won because the base is almost all supporters of his.

[brucejoel99]

Guys, Cuomo isn't going to resign, be impeached, or lose the primary. Get over it. The general election is a tossup.

He's certainly going to be impeached.

And once impeached, he's certainly gonna be convicted if/when necessary too. This isn't D.C. Trump controlled primary outcomes to such an extent that Senate Republicans had no choice but to "exonerate" him. The same can't be said for NY Senate Democrats: Cuomo is so unpopular now that they no longer have to fear him, & they want him gone. So, he will be.

[brucejoel99]

(Looks like) she's planning on running.

https://twitter.com/JerryZremski/status/1423634712862629891

Interesting quote from the article linked in that tweet:

"She's done very well with raising money and I've helped her raise money," said Erie County Democratic Chairman Jeremy Zellner. "She's not been shy about saying she's running for reelection next year one way or another and gearing up or it."

She clearly doesn't intend on being Paterson'd, at least without a primary fight anyway.

[brucejoel99]

Early D primary polls

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1424782027350552577

Everyone’s name rec seems low as hell but nothing which really changes my view that James should be viewed as the favorite.

Although Hochul's are obviously gonna go up a good amount once she's become the 57th Governor of New York.

[brucejoel99]

Im wondering if Cuomo might have announced his resignation to take the pressure off and stop impeachment only to rescind it later.

If he did that I would expect the legislature would impeach him anyway as it would only anger them further.

Day 13 of "the transition" in Cuomo's dreams: "New evidence has come to light" &/or "My approvals have gone up 1% so my ability to govern has been magically restored." I'd be pretty shocked if he actually rescinded it, though, since the legislature is literally still talking about impeaching anyway in order to permanently bar him from state-level office for life.

Hochul said she will pick a new Lt. Governor within the next two weeks. Let the speculation begin.

She also said it'll be someone most people are familiar with.

And she opted to use the word "ticket" rather than "administration" when she said that she's "cognizant of the need for diversity & an inclusive ticket," so there's all of the fuel that we need to speculate about what her plans for 2022 are.

I think she also hinted it will be someone from Downstate by saying she likes diversity in the administration. I hope she names a sane progressive who can help in 2022.

Any shot it's Jumaane Williams? He meets the already stated criteria of "someone people are familiar with" and also provides a lot of balance/diversity (geographic, ideological, gender, racial). This move would also probably help her fend off a primary challenge from the left in '22 by demonstrating to progressives that they have a seat at the table in her administration.

He's quite literally the only person whom I can think of who'd meet all of the presumed pre-requisites based on her statement: a NYC politician who's a racial &/or ethnic minority & whom most people are already pretty familiar with.

I know he tried to primary her in 2018 which is why this feels unlikely, but maybe she's going for a team of rivals situation. Would be a super savvy move IMO and a good outcome for the state.

He didn't deny interest in being her L.G. when asked about it in an interview earlier today, so speculation fuel go brrrr....

https://twitter.com/DanMannarino/status/1425529437051830272

A complicating factor is that the NYC Dems would need to replace him as the Public Advocate nominee, but that doesn't feel like a problem.

Yeah, it's just a majority vote of the NYC Democratic Party's executive committees that'd get to fill any vacancy that arises.

[brucejoel99]

Thinking back, I guess Rubén Díaz Jr. is also an obvious yet overlooked possibility, given that he's on the outs in the Bronx.

[brucejoel99]

L.G. appointment speculation:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/08/11/hochuls-first-big-decision-who-will-replace-her-1389843

The consensus among political observers seems to be that Hochul, who is white and from Buffalo, will almost certainly select a person of color from New York City. And it will likely be somebody who will stay with her on the 2022 ticket, rather than a placeholder.

The name most often cited by political players this week as a good fit for Hochul's short list was state Sen. Brian Benjamin, who represents Harlem and doesn't seem wedded to his current job - he ran to be New York City's comptroller earlier this year. Another is Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz, Jr., scheduled to leave office at the end of the year, if Hochul could convince him to remain in public life.

But there's a long list of qualified individuals whose names have come up as people make their predictions. In the state Assembly alone, at least a dozen members are being talked about. Some have noted that Hochul's first event after Cuomo began to go into freefall last week was hosted by Assemblymember Alicia Hyndman (D-Queens).

[...]

Another name that's been widely floated has been New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. He ran against Hochul from the left in 2018, and is seen as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2022. Joining forces with Williams could wind up being a way for Hochul to consolidate the party under her leadership and avoid headaches next year.

Most experts think that's unlikely, however - as one observer pointed out, it might be unwise for a governor to willingly choose a lieutenant who's as likely as not to spend his days protesting against the governor.

[brucejoel99]

How do you see a Hochul vs Leticia James primary shaping up?

James steamrolls Hochul

I don't think James is going to run.

Same. They're from the same party faction, & she can easily coast in the AG's job & wait for Hochul to step down in a term or 2, all the while not suffering any near-to-medium-term blowback of the Cuomo investigation looking political in any way.

[brucejoel99]

Hochul will win easily, her problem is if deblasio challenges her,

No.

which is expected he doesnt. if he somehow won, you will see a republican governor from Ny

Also no.

[brucejoel99]

It's a shame that it looks like it won't be Jumaane, as picking him would've been a kick-ass party-unifying move:

https://twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1426571401092345858

[brucejoel99]

It's a shame that it looks like it won't be Jumaane, as picking him would've been a kick-ass party-unifying move:

https://twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1426571401092345858

Wasn’t Williams arrested for domestic violence?

I'd previously heard that it was a wrongful arrest on the NYPD's part because the domestic dispute - not violence - was just a regular argument that the cops misinterpreted, which is why the charges were not only dropped but the arrest sealed (at least, 'til it was leaked by opponents of his), but somebody can correct the record on that for me if I've been misinformed.

[brucejoel99]

Hochul confirmed to CNN today that her L.G. will hail from NYC proper, as opposed to just Long Island or Westchester. Granted, that doesn't really narrow down the list of names that's been out there in any way, but it's technically something.

[brucejoel99]

Hochul confirmed to CNN today that her L.G. will hail from NYC proper, as opposed to just Long Island or Westchester. Granted, that doesn't really narrow down the list of names that's been out there in any way, but it's technically something.

Bill de Blasio was born in Manhattan.

You can just imagine the inevitable Battle of the Mayors-headlines that'd be written up over the next 4-8 years for anything even remotely related to any potential feuds, hostilities, &/or even just plain disagreements between Adams & Williams.

[brucejoel99]

Hochul also confirmed to CBS that she'll name her L.G. after she takes office rather than during the transition, so unless she literally announces it during her inaugural address, ASC will end up serving as Acting L.G. for more than a few minutes.

[brucejoel99]

Hochul also confirmed to CBS that she'll name her L.G. after she takes office rather than during the transition, so unless she literally announces it during her inaugural address, ASC will end up serving as Acting L.G. for more than a few minutes.

Wouldn't an appointment require legislative approval here? Similar to the 25th Amendment? I just remember that Arnold Schwarzenegger had a longer fight over installing Abel Maldonado as his number two in 2009/10. But seems like each state handles this differently.

Nope! While it used to be that the office would remain vacant 'til filled at the next ensuing gubernatorial/lieutenant gubernatorial election, with the Senate PPT acting as L.G. in the meantime, this situation proved to be an untenable one in the event of a tied State Senate: when one arose in summer 2009, legislative business came to a grinding halt because neither side had the numbers to do anything therein without the tie-breaking vote that could only be cast by a permanent L.G., as opposed to a Senate PPT acting as L.G. but presumably unable to cast 2 votes (one in their capacity as a Senator, & the other being the tie-breaker in their capacity as Acting L.G.), so in response to this gridlock, then-Gov. Paterson announced his appointment of Richard Ravitch, an all-around-respected veteran of NYC & state politics, ​to fill the vacancy in the lieutenant governor's office that'd been created by Paterson's own Spitzer-induced accession to the governorship back in 2008. Because this had never even been attempted before, Paterson's action was widely denounced in the state's legal & political circles - including by the formal legal opinion of the then-A.G., one Andrew Cuomo - as an action that was unauthorized by statute & unconstitutional overall, but to everybody's astonishment, the ​New York Court of Appeals disagreed & upheld Paterson's appointment of Ravitch, ruling in 2009's Skelos v. Paterson that in the absence of the Constitution's provision of anything but the Senate PPT acting as L.G. in the event of a vacancy therein, a Governor is empowered by the "catch-all" language of Sect. 43 of NY's Public Officers Law to fill a vacancy in the L.G.'s office because the L.G.'s office is an elected one, its vacancy had been created outside of a normal term's expiration, & there was no other provision in state law for permanently filling the vacancy in the meantime (Sect. 41 provided for the legislative election of only a new A.G. &/or comptroller, & although Sect. 42 provided for special elections, it'd been amended in the '40s to specifically exempt the L.G.'s office, so in the absence of an explicit constitutional provision to permanently fill a vacancy, it fell to Sect. 43).

[brucejoel99]

Kathy Hochul today is scheduled to meet not only with Bill DeBlasio, but also Jumaane Williams. Perhaps he's actually vetted for the number two spot?

https://twitter.com/SpecNews1Albany/status/1427609646961987589

👀

https://twitter.com/DanClarkReports/status/1427617643939434497

Im hearing Cuomo hasn't submitted a formal resignation letter and could possibly rescind his resignation? Is there any merit to this?

He has yet to submit a formal letter - to be addressed to the legislature - to the SoS, that much is true, but Hochul said that she's been given assurances that he'll submit it before the end of the transition, to take effect at 11:59pm on the night of Monday the 23rd, with her tenure then beginning at midnight, in the morning of Tuesday the 24th. He can try rescinding it (or rather, more accurately, never submitting it), but he'll meet the short end of an impeachment if he tries.

[brucejoel99]

Posted this where I saw it first, in the resignation megathread, but its analysis is obviously relevant here too:

Here we go:

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1427738159836708867

The man doesn't deserve a taxpayer-funded pension, let alone $50K/year's worth, but at least this essentially serves as confirmation that he won't just oh-so-conveniently forget to submit his formal letter of resignation by midnight on Tues.

[brucejoel99]

They "look forward to working together," huh?

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1427771641552064514

[brucejoel99]

Not exactly a Shermanesque statement, all it's missing is an obligatory "my focus right now is on being Public Advocate":

https://twitter.com/samraskinz/status/1427967436557586435

[brucejoel99]

Williams also tweeted this, but I guess we just have to wait whom ultimately gets appointed. So far, her moves seem to confirm my earlier expressions she has more potential for successful governing than many expected.

I think that's just undeniable at this point:

https://twitter.com/Gothamist/status/1428060638409072646

[brucejoel99]

Any word on when she’s to announce the full-on LG? Or any rumors on who it’ll be?

She's said that she'll appoint her permanent L.G. by the end of this week, & the short-list has been rumored to consist of State Senators Brian Benjamin & Jamaal Bailey of Harlem & the Bronx, respectively; outgoing Bronx Borough President Rubén Díaz Jr.; Brooklyn Assemblywoman Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn; & - depending on who's reporting it - Jumaane.

[brucejoel99]

Fun fact: Hochul & ASC constitute the 1st all-woman executive branch (i.e., Gov./L.G. or POTUS/VP) in American history (although there's already been a past instance of the 1st-in-line to succeed a woman Gov. also being a woman: Napolitano/Brewer).

[brucejoel99]

In related news, she's selected an L.G., but she's obviously saving the announcement of who for, well, the announcement:

https://twitter.com/luisferre/status/1430305486356819974

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/zachreports/status/1430620289013096449