Let me set a hypothetical political climate: Economy is better, but not fully recovered. President Obama has had a reasonably event-free term. His agenda can be labeled as "liberal" but he has been careful to pick certain fights with the Congress, with an eye on re-election. Bailout-mania has continued, with more federal dollars targeted at industries as well as failing state and municipal governments. National debt has grown. Iraq is calm. Afghanistan is better, looks almost like Iraq circa '08. Obama has had some missteps regarding foreign affairs, but nothing catastrophic. Iran and Russia continue to play the same games. GOP nets a handful of seats in the 2010 elections.
Romney is the first to announce his candidacy. Followed by former CO Gov. Bill Owens (surprise entry), some unimportant generic Congressman, then Sen. John Ensign, Sen. John Thune, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich. There is talk of Sarah Palin entering the race late, similar to Fred Thompson in '08, but she ultimately decides against it. Pawlenty forms an exploratory committee, but decides to challenge Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat instead. There is a heavy draft-Jindal movement, but he instead runs for and easily wins re-election as Governor of LA in 2011. Mike Pence has taken Lugar's Senate seat and declines to run for President.
Romney wins Iowa, as Thune and Ensign cannot coexist, and New Hampshire. Everyone drops out early except for Romney and Gingrich. Romney has run a better campaign than '08, not trying to be someone he's not and it seems to be working. He and Gingrich trade victories for a while, but Romney overall support is slipping as he still fails to "connect" with voters and seems too wound up. Gingrich wins the nomination.
There is talk of Obama replacing Biden on the ticket with someone younger. The two most talked-about names are Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Chet Edwards. President Obama has a press conference and says Biden will not be replaced. Sen. Kay Hagan delivers keynote address at DNC in New Orleans, LA. Among Gingrich's options are Thune, Ensign, Pence, Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry, and Rep. Paul Ryan. Fantasy suggestions include retired Gen. David Petraeus, former SecDef Robert Gates, and former Sec. of State Condi Rice. None of the 3 ever endorse or campaign for anyone. Romney isn't in the mix but serves as an economic advisor and is rumored to be interested in heading the Treasury Dep't, as he sees that he will never be President. Jindal pre-empts any VP talk by expressing his disinterest (it's estimated that he wants to run in '16 and wants to avoid the risk of being a losing runningmate). Gingrich chooses Daniels and the pick is immediately scrutinized as Daniels served in the Bush Administration, and there is an issue of exactly how effective he was as Governor of IN (see JSojourner's comments here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88434.msg1819041#msg1819041. Gingrich says Bush-villification worked 4 years ago, but it doesn't work now. Paul Ryan keynotes RNC in Detroit, MI.
Gingrich general election campaign is based on government spending, focusing on bailout-mania and programs Obama has pushed through at the behest of Congress. Obama runs on a "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" message. Majority of Americans agree that they are. Obama highlights where he has fought the Dem Congress on certain issues. Both campaigns are competently run. Obama and Gingrich both give compelling performances in the debates. Biden eats Daniels in the VP debate. Warner is Obama's primary surrogate on the news shows. Jindal is Gingrich's.
Obama wins, but it's close. Looks somewhat like Bush-Kerry '04. Jindal viewed as GOP heir-apparent in 2016. Warner for the Dems. GOP makes minor gains in Congress, but Dems still control both houses.
