NY-24 (Siena/Syracuse.com): Biden +19

[ON Progressive]

Joe Biden (D) 53
Donald Trump (R-inc) 34

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2020/10/john-katko-dana-balter-in-dead-heat-in-house-race-siena-college-syracusecom-poll.html

Balter (D) 45-42 in the House race

[LimoLiberal]

Horrifying poll for Republicans.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

What were the 2016 results?

[WD]

Upstate NY is going swing hard against Trump. Doesn’t bode well for him in other places like this.

[WD]

What were the 2016 results?

Clinton+4

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s hard seeing Katko surviving a 20-point Biden win.

[Skill and Chance]

What were the 2016 results?

Clinton+4

Holy sh**t

[It’s so Joever]

Upstate NY is going swing hard against Trump. Doesn’t bode well for him in other places like this.

I’m not shocked. New England and the rural NE will swing hard for Biden. That’s why I think NH is likely Biden if not safe.

[Pericles]

Horrifying poll for Republicans.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Upstate NY is going swing hard against Trump. Doesn’t bode well for him in other places like this.

I’m not shocked. New England and the rural NE will swing hard for Biden. That’s why I think NH is likely Biden if not safe.

I don't think anyone thought NH was in play, except maybe the Trump Campaign grasping at straws.

[Splash]

Brutal.

[Gass3268]

Upstate NY is going swing hard against Trump. Doesn’t bode well for him in other places like this.

I’m not shocked. New England and the rural NE will swing hard for Biden. That’s why I think NH is likely Biden if not safe.

And a lot of the Upper Midwest is very similar.

[NOVA Green]

Upstate NY is going swing hard against Trump. Doesn’t bode well for him in other places like this.

I’m not shocked. New England and the rural NE will swing hard for Biden. That’s why I think NH is likely Biden if not safe.

What about the French / French-Canadian and Irish Catholic Voters in ME-02?

[ꙮ]

Upstate NY is going swing hard against Trump. Doesn’t bode well for him in other places like this.

I’m not shocked. New England and the rural NE will swing hard for Biden. That’s why I think NH is likely Biden if not safe.

Also why I feel Brindisi and Golden have been underestimated this cycle. Good to see the raters move Golden’s race out of tossup at least.

[Coastal_Elite]

This is my home district, and I can tell you there is MUCH more enthusiasm for Biden this year than there was for Clinton in 2016; and certainly less enthusiasm for Trump. Same goes with Balter and Katko in relation to 2018.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Obama won this district by about 16% in 2012 and 14% in 2008, for reference.

[libertpaulian]

Good for Trump

[morgieb]

Would want to see the sample, but this probably means really good things in the "cultural" North. Then again, 90% of non-Trafalgar polls have said the same thing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 28-29
414 likely voters
MoE: 5.1%

[Tender Branson]

15% swing to Biden compared to Hillary.

8% swing to Balter (D) compared to an already good 2018 result (usually the district voted R for the US House by a 20-point margin).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release:

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/CD240920-Crosstabs.pdf

Hawkins 2%
Jorgensen 2%
Pierce (I) 1%
Someone else 1%
Won’t vote for president 0%
Don’t know/no opinion 7%

[VAR]

Favorabilities:
Trump: 35/60 (-25)
Biden: 53/40 (+13)
Katko: 39/49 (-10)
Balter: 36/46 (-10)

I wonder who’s perceived as the lesser of the two evils.

[Devils30]

No chance Trump is winning anything like WI, MI, PA with these numbers. Even IA OH are a tossup for a reason.

[Brittain33]

I assume this district has a huge student population... are they in Syracuse now?

[We Live in Black and White]

Jesus goddamn. First of all, I'd love to see John "PERSONAL BRAND" Katko upset and thrown overboard. Second of all, I'd be pissing myself all over Washington DC if I were a Republican strategist right now.