I wasn't sure about where to put this, so I decided to make a new thread for it! 
Two recent polls show Bush approval rating dropping. ABC News and the Washington Post shows Bush overall job approval go down to 58-39, in favour of approve. That's still way too good to give the Dems a chance.
A Zogby poll was also released, and showed 50% negative and 49% positive on his job policies.
When asked to choose between a generic candidate and Bush, respondents chose the Democrat, 45-41.
When asked on whether Bush deserves reelection, the result was 48-41 in the negative favour (i.e. 48% wanted a new president).
Is Zogby unreliable, or might Bush not have the lock on this election that we thought we had?
Zogby uses a weird method where 100% of "fair" is considered disapproval. Zogby also faired very poorly in the 2002 midterms. Gallup pegged it perfectly in 2002. Just look at the Gallup job approval numbers. Re-elections are about firing the incumbent. If he's got good job approval numbers, he won't be fired.
That's true and you have to remember that the state of the Union is tonight, so that number is bound to go up.
