Waukesha, WI
Washington, WI
Ozaukee, WI
There are still a huge number, and Atlas is being delusional about suburban trends as usual.
Atlas is mostly delusional about Wisconsin. They are in denial that the demographic trends of the state (i.e. an aging, blue-collar, and less educated population) greatly favor the GOP. It doesn't help that Milwaukee is shrinking while its surrounding suburban counties in bold are actually trending Republican. For example: In the 2006 WI gubernatorial election, the R candidate won 64% of the vote in Waukesha County, whereas Scott Walker won 66%. In Ozaukee County in the 2006 gubernatorial race, the R candidate won 62% of the vote, whereas Walker won 64% of the vote share this year. Thus, one can reasonably conclude that WOW IS the only suburban area that's trending R. The D trend between 2014 - 2018 in WOW is temporary. The Republicans in those three counties will come back home for the GOP once Trump leaves office.
Also, Dane is barely growing and Milwaukee doesn't turnout for elections.
Except in two straight election cycles (2016 and 2018) Ozaukee, Waukesha and all of the inner suburbs in Milwaukee County (Wauwatosa, Whitefish Bay, etc.) substantially trended Democratic. Also you are comparing an election where the Democrat won by about 7 points in 2006, to one where the Democrat only won by a point (2018). It was the Republican collapse in the Milwaukee suburbs as to why Evers was able to win. Example: Walker won his hometown of Wauwatosa by 4.68 points in 2014 to losing it by 16.17%. That's nearly a 21 point swing! Most of the other major suburban cities saw big drops in Republican support. Waukesha, 17.57% towards the Democrats, New Berlin, 11.83%, Brookfield, 17.77%, Menomonee Falls, 13.18%. These are horrific numbers for Republicans in what is their base region. Is it possible that this all reverts back after Trump is gone? Maybe, but generally its hard to put the genie back in the bottle.
Also the idea that Dane County isn't growing, when its the fastest growing county in the state by a country mile, is laughable. Also Milwaukee County had its best midterm turnout in a long time in 2018.
I agree Dane is growing obviously, and the GOP seems to be collapsing in Wauwatosa.
However, with respect to WOW itself, yes WOW did move leftward from where it was in the Walker/Obama era but it's still considerably more Republican than it was a decade ago. It's easy to lose in all the other stuff going on that WOW could just be reverting to pre-Obama era margins rather departing on a journey to become the Chicago collar counties north. Yes, I agree it is concerning and probably the most concerning thing about Wisconsin trends for the GOP.
Still, here's the 2016 swing map:
If it continues to look something like that, the GOP can still win with declining WOW support.
