Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

[socaldem]

According to the results the AP has up, Santorum leads in CDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 13. He also narrowly trails in CD 5. Two of those could realistically flip against Santorum as the vote totals are rather incomplete (10 and 13).

Unless there is something very non-uniform in the split jurisdictions for which I can't break down the data, Romney won MI-10 by over 3,000 votes.  In particular, I don't which precincts of Sterling Heights, Macomb County are in MI-10 and don't have a breakdown of the Tuscola County vote, which is in two CDs.  

I'll try to calculate MI-05.  Edited to add: I can't because of the Tuscola split.

The Wayne County Board of Elections' website doesn't provide precinct level data, so breaking down MI-13 and the Wayne part of MI-14 is impossible right now.  Despite the map, Romney won the Oakland part of MI-14 big, about 12,700 to 7,400.   We might see the same phenomenon in the suburban parts of MI-13, trumping any low-turnout Santorum precincts from Detroit.

I think you are absolutely correct about MI-10...Romney's margins in Macomb just overwhelmed the rest of the district...

I don't know about MI-13. I just don't think there are all that many GOPers in that district. The more suburbanish parts of that district are still overwhelmingly Democratic--like 60%+ Obama.  We know that Santorum won the current CD12 portions of Oakland, which are probably not all that dissimilar from the "suburban" (i.e. white) parts of the district.  Then, of course, there are the parts of the district in Detroit proper.  I can believe that Santorum won the district, and perhaps he even did it somewhat handily.

[Tender Branson]

Did Michigan and Arizona both have record turn out?

No.

In Michigan, turnout is now about 1 Mio. with almost everything in. This is up from 2008, but down from the 1.25 Mio. in the 2000 primaries. If you adjust the numbers for the Democrats and Indys taking part tonight, Republican "only" turnout could even be lower or the same as 2008. Need to do some calculations later.

In Arizona, turnout is even down from 2008, with only 470.000 or so turning out. That is down by about 100.000 from 2008.

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney hits 50% in Arizona!  

[RI]

Do you have a link...I guess Santorum did pull out CD1...I'm skeptical of wins for him in CDs 10 and 13...and CD 12 went to Romney for sure?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/MI_GOP_0228_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


As of right now, Santorum leads in 7 CDs: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 13.  Romney leads in 7 CDs: 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 14.  MI-05 is very close, with Romney leading by 38 votes with 4% yet to report.  MI-10 flipped back to Romney.  MI-13 and MI-14 are the most incomplete.  As I said earlier, the Oakland County part of MI-14 is all in on their website.  Romney crushed Santorum in the Oakland part of MI-14, with more votes than the AP tally currently shows.

The most likely scenarios appear to be 8-6 Santorum, 8-6 Romney or a 7-7tie.  If it's 8-6 Santorum, I think the delegate take is tied, as Romney gets 2 delegates for winning the statewide vote.

Uh, if it's 8-6 Santorum, Rick gets 16 CD delegates and Romney gets 12 CD delegates plus two for statewide, giving Santorum a 16-14 win.

[RI]

Romney hits 50% in Arizona!  

Are you on crack? There are no results that show that.

[retromike22]

If I'm not mistaken, Arizona is the first state where Romney has won ALL the counties.

[cinyc]

Do you have a link...I guess Santorum did pull out CD1...I'm skeptical of wins for him in CDs 10 and 13...and CD 12 went to Romney for sure?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/MI_GOP_0228_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


As of right now, Santorum leads in 7 CDs: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 13.  Romney leads in 7 CDs: 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 14.  MI-05 is very close, with Romney leading by 38 votes with 4% yet to report.  MI-10 flipped back to Romney.  MI-13 and MI-14 are the most incomplete.  As I said earlier, the Oakland County part of MI-14 is all in on their website.  Romney crushed Santorum in the Oakland part of MI-14, with more votes than the AP tally currently shows.

The most likely scenarios appear to be 8-6 Santorum, 8-6 Romney or a 7-7tie.  If it's 8-6 Santorum, I think the delegate take is tied, as Romney gets 2 delegates for winning the statewide vote.

Uh, if it's 8-6 Santorum, Rick gets 16 CD delegates and Romney gets 12 CD delegates plus two for statewide, giving Santorum a 16-14 win.

You are correct.  The delegate take should be 16-14 Santorum, if he wins 8 CDs, 16-14 Romney, if Santorum wins 7 CDs and 18-12 Romney if Santorum wins 6 CDs.

[RI]

If I'm not mistaken, Arizona is the first state where Romney has won ALL the counties.

Yes, that is true. It is the second overall monochromatic state after Missouri.

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney hits 50% in Arizona!  

Are you on crack? There are no results that show that.

I don't smoke, anything, and do not take any illicit drugs of any kind.

It was on CNN when they were talking to, I believe, the Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.

If I am mistaken, I stand corrected.  But that is my understanding of what was said.

[Tender Branson]

Romney hits 50% in Arizona!  

Are you on crack? There are no results that show that.

I don't smoke, anything, and do not take any illicit drugs of any kind.

It was on CNN when they were talking to, I believe, the Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.

If I am mistaken, I stand corrected.  But that is my understanding of what was said.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/36496/71939/en/summary.html

Romney is at 47%, with just a few precincts from a tiny county left.

[socaldem]

Do you have a link...I guess Santorum did pull out CD1...I'm skeptical of wins for him in CDs 10 and 13...and CD 12 went to Romney for sure?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/MI_GOP_0228_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


As of right now, Santorum leads in 7 CDs: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 13.  Romney leads in 7 CDs: 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 14.  MI-05 is very close, with Romney leading by 38 votes with 4% yet to report.  MI-10 flipped back to Romney.  MI-13 and MI-14 are the most incomplete.  As I said earlier, the Oakland County part of MI-14 is all in on their website.  Romney crushed Santorum in the Oakland part of MI-14, with more votes than the AP tally currently shows.

The most likely scenarios appear to be 8-6 Santorum, 8-6 Romney or a 7-7tie.  If it's 8-6 Santorum, I think the delegate take is tied, as Romney gets 2 delegates for winning the statewide vote.

Uh, if it's 8-6 Santorum, Rick gets 16 CD delegates and Romney gets 12 CD delegates plus two for statewide, giving Santorum a 16-14 win.

Santorum 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7,
Romney 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14

Romney Leading (subject to recount): CD 5
Santorum Leading: CD 13

Romney has most likely won CD-5:

96% reporting

Romney, Mitt   GOP   19,642   39%   
Santorum, Rick   GOP   19,604   39%   

Santorum barely leads in CD-13:

38% reporting

Romney, Mitt   GOP   19,642   39%   
Santorum, Rick   GOP   19,604   39%   

Final results unknown unless someone has access to Wayne Co precinct data...

I think its likely 7-7 or 6 Santorum to 8 Romney

[RI]

Only redeeming part of the night was when Ann Romney said that she's been "up and down, all over the tip of the mitt", and Alex Castellanos's awkward reference to it later.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Operation Hilarity was in effect to an extent: in "hipster"/alt Ferndale, Santorum performed decently and nearly beat out Romney (although Paul came in first). There were fewer signs of this occurring in Ann Arbor: in the affluent east side of town, Romney romped (and turnout was fairly high). Santorum certainly overperformed in the rest of the city but there were no signs of a huge effort by Democrats to vote in the GOP primary, especially in the university precincts.

[cinyc]

Final results unknown unless someone has access to Wayne Co precinct data...

I think its likely 7-7 or 6 Santorum to 8 Romney

Wayne County put its precinct data up here:
www.waynecounty.com/documents/elections_docs/pre1.pdf

Unfortunately, it's not in any Excel-readable format.  It looks like Santorum or Paul won the election day vote in many of the MI-13 precincts, but Romney won the absentees.  Without being able to put the data into Excel, I'm not sure which provided the larger margin, though quick eyeballing seems to give Santorum the win.

[Alcon]

Not only is that not Excel-compatible formatting, it's not even data formatting.  It's a scanned photocopy of a computer print-out.  Way to go Wayne County.

[retromike22]

Only redeeming part of the night was when Ann Romney said that she's been "up and down, all over the tip of the mitt", and Alex Castellanos's awkward reference to it later.

Hahaha that was hilarious when I saw it.

[cinyc]

Romney and Santorum are pretty much even in the parts of MI-13 that are not in Detroit.  Paul won Detroit, with Santorum coming in second and beating Romney by about 2,450.  Adding any part of Detroit to the rest of MI-13 should push that CD into the Santorum column.

The most likely scenarios are a 7-7 tie or 8-6 Santorum, depending on the outcome of MI-05.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do you want me to put this in a machine readable format - I do this work all the time?
 

[rob in cal]

Anyone have any insight on why Romney did so well in Oakland county.  He did better there than any other Detroit area county by far, and his margin there won him the state.

[Eraserhead]

Santorum lost that one UP county by one vote and its neighbor by four votes. Five damn votes cost Santorum the UP. Five.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J54fc8mDbZ0

[Linus Van Pelt]

Anyone have any insight on why Romney did so well in Oakland county.  He did better there than any other Detroit area county by far, and his margin there won him the state.

[cinyc]

AP tally now confirms a Santorum win in MI-13 with 94% in.  MI-05 also flipped back to Santorum.  All but 7 MI-05 precincts are in, and while it could still flip back, Santorum's lead is a sizeable 269 votes. 

8-6 Santorum is looking like the most likely scenario, meaning Santorum won the most delegates, 16-14.

[Erc]

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Do you want me to put this in a machine readable format - I do this work all the time?
 

If it wouldn't be too much trouble, I'd love it; I really do not trust the AP here, especially in CD-14.

[Wisconsin+17]

Ok, when I get a moment I'll do it.