Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 02, 2024, 10:45:53 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 13
Author Topic: Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread  (Read 15113 times)
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,816
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: February 28, 2012, 06:42:16 PM »
Thank God turnout is lower than expected in Michigan. Romney tends to do better when no one shows up to vote.
Logged
Simfan34
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: February 28, 2012, 06:42:48 PM »
The Winfield legacy lives on.
Logged
ajb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 869
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: February 28, 2012, 06:43:03 PM »
In fact, I'd say that all this exit poll data is next to useless from the perspective of predicting the outcome.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: February 28, 2012, 06:44:14 PM »
Quote from: redcommander on February 28, 2012, 06:42:16 PM
Thank God turnout is lower than expected in Michigan. Romney tends to do better when no one shows up to vote.

That seems intuitive to me, but I'm not sure how well-supported that is by empirical evidence.

I have more exciting up-to-date coverage on #atlasforum at mibbit.com.  EXCITEMENT.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,562
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: February 28, 2012, 07:01:06 PM »
Romney up to 65 on Intrade in MI.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: February 28, 2012, 07:04:40 PM »

He's been at about 63% ever since the news that absentees were overrepresented in the exit polls.  Before then, he was at 55% or something.  Nothing to see here, folks.  As always, we're smarter than Intrade (even if we're maybe a bit more capricious.)
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,562
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: February 28, 2012, 07:06:19 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on February 28, 2012, 07:04:40 PM

He's been at about 63% ever since the news that absentees were overrepresented in the exit polls.  Before then, he was at 55% or something.  Nothing to see here, folks.  As always, we're smarter than Intrade (even if we're maybe a bit more capricious.)

yes we know you hate Intrade.  I hold to it because I hold to Lacan's definition of the objective as a plural reality.
Logged
yourelection
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 436


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: February 28, 2012, 07:08:24 PM »
Is there a link to the Intrade figures?
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,562
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2012, 07:08:49 PM »
Quote from: yourelection on February 28, 2012, 07:08:24 PM
Is there a link to the Intrade figures?

intrade.com is usually the best source.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: February 28, 2012, 07:10:37 PM »
Exit polls show Rick got 50% of dems, Mitt got 15%. 
Logged
yourelection
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 436


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: February 28, 2012, 07:15:36 PM »
Democrates in MI looking to embarrass Romney?
Logged
yourelection
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 436


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 28, 2012, 07:16:20 PM »
Quote from: © Boss Tweed on February 28, 2012, 07:08:49 PM
Quote from: yourelection on February 28, 2012, 07:08:24 PM
Is there a link to the Intrade figures?

intrade.com is usually the best source.

Thanks
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 28, 2012, 07:16:44 PM »
Quote from: © Boss Tweed on February 28, 2012, 07:06:19 PM
Quote from: Alcon on February 28, 2012, 07:04:40 PM

He's been at about 63% ever since the news that absentees were overrepresented in the exit polls.  Before then, he was at 55% or something.  Nothing to see here, folks.  As always, we're smarter than Intrade (even if we're maybe a bit more capricious.)

yes we know you hate Intrade.  I hold to it because I hold to Lacan's definition of the objective as a plural reality.

do you realize that's a misappropriation of that theory? whatever.
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,011
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: -2.78

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: February 28, 2012, 07:19:59 PM »
AP reporting absentees accounted for 25% of votes... Good sign for Romney
Logged
yourelection
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 436


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: February 28, 2012, 07:21:15 PM »
Does anyone here actually actively participate in intrade?
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: February 28, 2012, 07:22:28 PM »
Quote from: yourelection on February 28, 2012, 07:21:15 PM
Does anyone here actually actively participate in intrade?

Yes.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: February 28, 2012, 07:23:45 PM »
Quote from: Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC on February 28, 2012, 07:19:59 PM
AP reporting absentees accounted for 25% of votes... Good sign for Romney

Except we don't actually know what percent of voters will be absentees.  It's not even clear how the exit polls arrived at that total, and if any extrapolation to account for evening voters was involved at all.
Logged
yourelection
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 436


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: February 28, 2012, 07:29:30 PM »

Interesting concept. Different than a poll. Not representative, but I imagine since real money is involved that the results might be fairly accurate.
Logged
CLARENCE 2015!
clarence
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,927
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: February 28, 2012, 07:32:28 PM »
How do I go on the chat room-
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: February 28, 2012, 07:32:53 PM »
Folks...I hate to say it, but Mitt is overpriced on intrade right now. This could go either way. It should be 50-50 until real returns start coming in. I would not put money either way.
Logged
yourelection
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 436


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: February 28, 2012, 07:35:49 PM »
If the exit polls are right and 10% of MI voters are Dems, is this a fair way to pick a candidate for the republican party?
Logged
TomC
TCash101
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,976


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: February 28, 2012, 07:37:04 PM »
If I bet, I'd be buying 'brokered convention" about now.
Logged
yourelection
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 436


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: February 28, 2012, 07:37:41 PM »
CNN calls it "Democratic Mischief in Michigan"
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,607


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: February 28, 2012, 07:48:33 PM »
Quote from: yourelection on February 28, 2012, 07:35:49 PM
If the exit polls are right and 10% of MI voters are Dems, is this a fair way to pick a candidate for the republican party?

Then have closed primaries. I support them but to think that candidates won't court Dems when they're able to vote is ridiculous.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: February 28, 2012, 07:52:30 PM »
Michigan:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/michigan-preliminary-exit-polls-suggest-increse-in-conservative-voters-plus-democratic-turnout-in-gop-primary/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Arizona:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/parsing-the-exit-polls-in-michigan-and-arizona/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 13  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 14 queries.