2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

The RV sample is more realistic in the same poll, has D+3 at 49-46 versus the D+7 of all adults.

But the trendline is pretty clear regardless.

D+3 would do it, D+4 might get them the House and 52 in the Senate.

[President Johnson]

i'm shook y'all

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1554844970426703874

This is definitely becoming a trend, isn't it? Hopefully this keeps up or at least doesn't reverse again. Biden needs to get remainders of BBB passed as soon as possible. Not that its impact would be felt in time, but it may very well get some Democrats and other progressives back on board or out to the polls in November.

However, in recent cycles Democrats mostly looked stronger in the summer. So there's still too much time left for any predictions and way too early to be relieved already.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are alot of naysay on this forum and Rs aren't gonna do anything more that what is going on now, why because we are under R budget we can't raise Corporate taxes for new programs, so users think R Congress is gonna change things no it wont

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1554899000066711552

[wbrocks67]

538's GCB average is now dead even - 44.2% to 44.2%

Best showing for Dems since Nov 15, 2021 in their average

[Ferguson97]

Yeah even if you think the polls are still underestimating Republicans, it's completely undeniable that there has been a post-Dobbs shift in favor of the Democrats.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

More Dark Brandon Energy!

[philly09]

Yeah even if you think the polls are still underestimating Republicans, it's completely undeniable that there has been a post-Dobbs shift in favor of the Democrats.

What about underestimating Independents who are choosing Democrats over Republicans.

[Adam Griffin]

More Dark Brandon Energy!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More Dark Brandon Energy!

These are wonderful memes!

[Adam Griffin]

More Dark Brandon Energy!

These are wonderful memes!

Thank goodness they've given him his biennial adrenochrome therapy just in time for the midterms!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map and we can wind up with Charlie Crist as Gov 224 DH and 54 Senate seats GA is going to a Runoff it's important we nail down OH and NC and PA and WI that gives us 53 seats before GA runoffs

The gas prices are going way down you see Buttigieg out again after he was missing during the high Gas prices it won't be a landslide

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why we are in a Recession and D's are doing well Minnesota Mike is posting positive poll numbers because we are dependent on Entitlements, Obamacare as well as Medicaid, Medicare and SSA are Entitlements and as long as we are in a Pandemic normal Recession rules don't apply to Politician because Stimulus checks are Gone except for enhanced child tax credits

People on Disability and SSA are getting a fat raise 192 next yr that's 1300 that eliminates food stamps but not Medicaid plus Medicare dual program 😃😃😃

[ProgressiveModerate]

In somewhat of an upset Dems now have a candidate in MI-04 through a strong write in campaign during the primary. The fact they didn’t contest this district originally was silly but this is prolly likely R for now, if not safe.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/joshkraushaar/status/1555535600966582279?s=21&t=7LpzdkAli_YrqUIgtzFPtA

Six new House rating changes from @CookPolitical: three move towards Ds, three move towards Rs.

Biggest eye-catcher: Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon moves to toss-up status, with internal polls showing him tied or trailing.


Makes you wonder, NE-1 result suggests Dobbs impact real. If Bacon is in trouble, how much is the rest of the House GOP path built on a shaky foundation? If Dems pick up NE-2, MI-3, OH-1, CA-27 (maybe 22,45) it would offset some of the GOPs easy pickups. Also wonder if NJ-7 (similar demographics to NE-2) could move to tossup.

[Gracile]

^That tweet is incorrect, Cook actually moved five seats (three in favor of Democrats). Here is the full list of rating changes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1555551014576693249

[Roll Roons]

^That tweet is incorrect, Cook actually moved five seats all in favor of Democrats. Here is the full list of rating changes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1555551014576693249

No, OR-04 and OR-06 were moved in favor of Republicans.

Still, that doesn't really square up. It seems that NE-02 was moved because Wasserman thinks abortion will hurt Bacon, but you'd think it would also be a detriment to Republicans in both of those Oregon seats.

[Devils30]

It's hard seeing OR-4 or 6 flipping, 5 is a different story with the Warren type of lefty nominee the Dems have.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the OR changes are a bit odd to me, unless they're just hedging their bets but still expecting Ds to win.

[Roll Roons]

House Majority PAC (Dems) dropping $20M on TV ads across the country:
https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1555544711041110016

Albany: NY-19
Binghamton: NY-19
Boston: NH-01 and NH-02
Champaign: IL-13
Chicago: IL-06 and IN-01
Cincy: OH-01
Cleveland: OH-13
Fresno: CA-13 and CA-22
Grand Rapids: MI-03
Greenville (NC): NC-01
Harlingen: TX-15
Hartford: CT-05
Laredo: TX-28
LA: CA-27, CA-45, CA-47 and possibly CA-40 and CA-41
Minneapolis: MN-02
NYC: NJ-07
Norfolk: VA-02
San Antonio: TX-28
Seattle: WA-08
St. Louis: IL-13
Syracuse: NY-22
Toledo: OH-09
Utica: NY-22

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ds just gave up on PA-01 at this point.

[Devils30]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ds just gave up on PA-01 at this point.

Fitzpatrick voted with the Dems on almost everything the last two months, he's safe. You wonder if he will even run in 2024.

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ds just gave up on PA-01 at this point.

Fitzpatrick voted with the Dems on almost everything the last two months, he's safe. You wonder if he will even run in 2024.

I mean, at this point, barring the next 'blue wave', he's got this seat on lockdown as long as he wants, but I wonder how long that will continue. He also has to contend with primaries where he does pretty well, but that could quickly change as we've seen with others.

Funny enough though, Fitzpatrick winning in PA-01 boosts the chances of Fetterman/Shapiro IMO. Bucks County loves ticket-splitting, so I could see many voters being given the out here, where they can say, well I voted D at the top b/c of the crazy nominees, but I still did my 'bipartisan' duty while voting for Fitzpatrick for house.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen will Rasmussen.... their GCB is R+3 today, 46-43.

IT has gone from R+10 to R+8 to R+5 and now R+3

[GALeftist]

Rasmussen will Rasmussen.... their GCB is R+3 today, 46-43.

IT has gone from R+10 to R+8 to R+5 and now R+3

itshappening.gif

Between this and the Washington primary results I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats narrowly lead the GCB right now. We'll see what happens in the next hundred or so days.