When each state was last a "swing state."

[tpfkaw]

Defined as being within 10% of the national result.

2012: 90% green

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

2008: 80% green

Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Washington

2004: 70% green

Arizona, Arkansas

2000: 60% green

Maine, Louisiana, Tennessee, Vermont, West Virginia

1996: 50% green

California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland

1992: 40% green

Hawaii, South Dakota, Texas

1988: 30% green

Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma

1984: 30% red

Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina

1980: 40% red

Massachusetts, New York

1976: 50% red

Rhode Island

1972: 60% red

Alaska

1968: 70% red

None

1964: 80% red

Wyoming

1960: 90% red

Idaho, Utah

The last time Nebraska was within 10% of the national result was 1936!

[tpfkaw]

Why are we defining "swing state" as within 10% of the final result? I see that it's mostly accurate, but I don't think Washington was a swing state in 2008.

Because we'd have to go way far back for quite a few states if I defined it more narrowly. Washington might have been more competitive if 2008 were an even year rather than a Dem wave year (within 10% of the national result, not within 10%). It was about as close to the national result as Montana was that year.

[ElectionsGuy]

Reduced down to 5%:

90% Green - 2012
70% Green - 2004
60% Green - 2000
50% Green - 1996
40% Green - 1992
30% Green - 1988
30% Red - 1984
40% Red - 1980
50% Red - 1976
60% Red - 1972
90% Red - 1960
30% Blue - 1956
50% Blue - 1948
90% Blue - 1932 or before (AZ-1928, KS-1916, NE-1912, DC-Never)

[RINO Tom]

Cool map.

On a semi-related but slightly off-topic note, Vermont is the state that most perplexes me.  People can give me the "yada-yada" all day long about how the GOP has gone crazy and used to be more moderate or how the hippies and MA/CT/NY liberals moved in over the years, but it doesn't add up that between the 1970s (generously early) it went from being a very Republican state to being one of the bluest today.  For YEARS, they elected fiscally conservative politicians, a few of which were quite socially conservative, too.  That state's politics have had some of the most amazing shifts ever.

[tpfkaw]

Cool map.

On a semi-related but slightly off-topic note, Vermont is the state that most perplexes me.  People can give me the "yada-yada" all day long about how the GOP has gone crazy and used to be more moderate or how the hippies and MA/CT/NY liberals moved in over the years, but it doesn't add up that between the 1970s (generously early) it went from being a very Republican state to being one of the bluest today.  For YEARS, they elected fiscally conservative politicians, a few of which were quite socially conservative, too.  That state's politics have had some of the most amazing shifts ever.

Less than half the population of Vermont was born there, and 90% of the newcomers are the sandals and Subarus crowd.

[Badger]

Cool map.

On a semi-related but slightly off-topic note, Vermont is the state that most perplexes me.  People can give me the "yada-yada" all day long about how the GOP has gone crazy and used to be more moderate or how the hippies and MA/CT/NY liberals moved in over the years, but it doesn't add up that between the 1970s (generously early) it went from being a very Republican state to being one of the bluest today.  For YEARS, they elected fiscally conservative politicians, a few of which were quite socially conservative, too.  That state's politics have had some of the most amazing shifts ever.

Less than half the population of Vermont was born there, and 90% of the newcomers are the sandals and Subarus crowd.

That first stat is amazing. I doubt even California (or any other state for that matter) matches.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cool map.

On a semi-related but slightly off-topic note, Vermont is the state that most perplexes me.  People can give me the "yada-yada" all day long about how the GOP has gone crazy and used to be more moderate or how the hippies and MA/CT/NY liberals moved in over the years, but it doesn't add up that between the 1970s (generously early) it went from being a very Republican state to being one of the bluest today.  For YEARS, they elected fiscally conservative politicians, a few of which were quite socially conservative, too.  That state's politics have had some of the most amazing shifts ever.

Less than half the population of Vermont was born there, and 90% of the newcomers are the sandals and Subarus crowd.

That first stat is amazing. I doubt even California (or any other state for that matter) matches.

Actually according to this map, Vermont is not out of the ordinary. Nevada (which is easily the fastest growing state of the past 4 decades) has only 25% of its population born there.

[Mr. Morden]

1976 would've been such a fun election to follow on a website like this (assuming that you also imagine a world with as much polling back then as there is now).  All the big states were competitive back then.  Imagine a presidential election today in which CA, NY, and TX are all contested.

[RR1997]

Cool map

I wish we had more swing states. Elections would be a lot more interesting if we did.