Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Del Tachi]

If Warnock loses this year, what are the chances McBath runs for that Senate seat in 2022?

Possibly very likely, depending on how redistricting goes

[Del Tachi]

Kemp will win, incumbents are tough to beat and 2022 will be a Republican year

[Del Tachi]

Kemp will win, incumbents are tough to beat and 2022 will be a Republican year

I don't think Kemp is that favored, he is unpopular. If Abrams loses again to him, she will say that he is illegitimate.

Yes, we all know Stacey Abrams hates democracy unless it's she who wins.  Next!

[Del Tachi]

Kemp vs Perdue is an interesting match-up that will probably expose some local fault-lines that national commentators and Atlas-type pundits will gladly be oblivious to.  Back in his 2018 primary, Kemp was the more moderate/rural Republican over Cagle.  The Cagle and Perdue analouges are strong; the only thing that has really changed is that Trump is apparently all-in on unseating Kemp.  Perdue trying to U-turn from a country club type to unapologetic Trumpian does have the potential to come off as insincere and opportunistic, so we'll see how the GA-GOP responds.  Kemp is likely to going to have the support of most local GOP county chairs and state legislators.   

The national environment obviously matters a lot more than whatever happens in the GOP primary when it comes to the GE, and it doesn't strike me that either Kemp or Perdue would be a much stronger GE contender than the other.

[Del Tachi]

Trump endorsing early means its effect is going to be somewhat "baked in" for a May primary.  I.e., don't expect a late surge toward Perdue (like Kemp had in 2018), it's going to be a slog to the finish.

The cleavage here is going to be the state/county GOP organization (Kemp) vs Trump surrogates and aligned national media (Perdue.)  I'll rate the primary as toss-up/Tilt Kemp to start. 

[Del Tachi]

The cleavage here is going to be the state/county GOP organization (Kemp) vs Trump surrogates and aligned national media (Perdue.)  I'll rate the primary as toss-up/Tilt Kemp to start. 

The issue that I see with this assessment is that Kemp doesn't have enough of the Republican organization behind him. He has a lot of allies, which is why he's not going to go quietly, but the Georgia Republican Party is not a united organization. The people who stood behind Cagle (and there are an awful lot of those) are organization men too, and they're not going to help Kemp. The Perdue-aligned group here isn't just a band of outsiders parachuting in.

I think Kemp is broadly popular enough among the business community and GOP county/committee chairs to not have these people (or Republicans in the GA legislature) abandon him for what is, at the end of the day, a grievence campaign from David Perdue (who himself was not the first pick of the GOP establishment in his own contested primary for U.S. Senate in 2014.) 

Perdue has cast his lot as Trump's candidate, which is still a very unproven strategy for winning a GOP contest (i.e., we've seen plenty of conservatives best Trump-supported candidates before.)  Kemp's incumbency makes the lift only that much harder.

In contrast, I do think we'll see Perdue relying on national organization and surrogates throughout the primary.  That's the only way to stir-up turnout among Trump acolytes in a primary for state row office.  Perdue's not as established or popular among the GA-GOP as many seem to think, and certainly not now.     

[Del Tachi]

Trump endorsing early means its effect is going to be somewhat "baked in" for a May primary.  I.e., don't expect a late surge toward Perdue (like Kemp had in 2018), it's going to be a slog to the finish.

The cleavage here is going to be the state/county GOP organization (Kemp) vs Trump surrogates and aligned national media (Perdue.)  I'll rate the primary as toss-up/Tilt Kemp to start. 

What do you think Trump is going to do if Kemp indeed wins the nomination? Just sit it out, endorse him reluctantly or will he at least somehow call upon his supporters to vote for Abrams? Latter would be extremely hilarious and instantly move it to Lean Democratic.

I still believe Kemp will go down and the general election is at least Tilt Republican.

Trump probably tucks his tail and goes home to lick his wounds, and there's enough of an anti-Biden vote in November for either Perdue or Kemp to win. 

[Del Tachi]

My hunch is that the primary campaign will not end up being very kind to Perdue.

I'll bake in my first "way too early" prediction for the GOP primary as a 59-37 win for Kemp.

[Del Tachi]

Could Abrams get any more cringe?  lmao

[Del Tachi]

I saw this on Twitter and assumed that people here would have something negative to say and I was right. If Brian Kemp had been on the show you all would have been screaming with joy and praising the show for not being "woke".

No.  Republicans take themselves too seriously to do this kind of weird stuff.

[Del Tachi]

I saw this on Twitter and assumed that people here would have something negative to say and I was right. If Brian Kemp had been on the show you all would have been screaming with joy and praising the show for not being "woke".

No.  Republicans take themselves too seriously to do this kind of weird stuff.

Both of these examples are much less cringe than a candidate for public office playing as "president of the earth" in a TV show.

[Del Tachi]

Perdue's campaign for governor essentially ended tonight; although, it's been clear from the outset that he was always a heavy underdog.

Kemp should win by >25 points

[Del Tachi]

I'll make my final GA-GOV prediction

Kemp 58
Perdue 37
Taylor 4

[Del Tachi]

Attorney General Chris Carr has told state Republicans that he plans to run for governor in 2026.

Expected move.

Endorsed! xDelTachi