The 2024 Presidential Election: A week by week timeline

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Breaking: Joanne Hurt wraps up the New National Liberal nomination, will face off against Short

New York -

Sen. Joanne Hurt (MN) has secured enough pledged delegates to secure the NNL nomination. She will face off against American Labor nominee Veronica Short (NY). This comes after her commanding win in the Pennsylvania primary, where she received 63% of the vote. Her nearest competitor, Michael DeMoreno, received 33%. DeMoreno suspended his campaign early this morning and is expected to endorse Hurt in the coming days.

The Hurt campaign released the following statement to AP.

"We are happy to have received the required number of delegates to close out this primary. Senator Hurt has thanked DeMoreno for a hard-fought race and invites him and his team to join us in putting America back on the path of fiscal responsibility, global competitiveness, and leadership in the world."

As of May 5, Hurt was polling even with Short. In a Marist poll, likely voters gave Hurt 44% to Short's 42%. The remaining 14% mostly went to the Christian Democrats.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Can I please have some more (context behind how the parties came to be and what they stand for), Sir?

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Gov. Short visits Philadelphia in campaign stop first

Philadelphia -

New York Gov. Veronica Short, the ALP nominee, visited Philadelphia today to speak at a rally in what has been seen as a preview to what her campaign for President will look like. Speaking to an audience of students, organizers, and union members, Short stressed her party's commitment to protecting labor unions, reforming the immigration system, lowering drug costs, and fighting to lower crime across America's cities.

"America is at a crossroads. Either we can prioritize the 1% and drug companies, let workers fall by the wayside, allow American industries to be picked apart by global corporations, and watch as crime destroys our cities. Or we can take a stand and help the working families that made America great, empower women, clamp down on out of control immigration, give much needed funding to our cities' police departments, and restore trust in our institutions... America is not about Wall Street. It's about Main Street."

Short will travel to Cleveland next week.

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Current polling map as of May 5, 2024

Red - States where Short has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Blue - States where Hurt has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Orange - States where Falco (presumptive nominee) has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Gray - Competitive states where no candidate has more than a 5% lead across a 5 poll average.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I feel the need to ask all these years later, is The Reborn Republic not happening?

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I feel the need to ask all these years later, is The Reborn Republic not happening?

I am unable to not abandon projects after starting them

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Preview for Sunday's post.

- Marist poll of Short vs. Hurt vs. DeFalco in Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Missouri

- Quinnipiac poll of Short vs. Hurt in New York

- PPP poll of Short vs. Hurt in California and Nevada

- Breaking news out of Eastern Europe

- April Economic numbers

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Serbian Ultranationalists Take Power after Snap Election

Cvetkovic speaking in Belgrade on Thursday prior to the election

Belgrade, 12 May -

On Saturday, a coalition of Serbian conservatives, nationalists, and populists won a narrow majority in the Serbian National Assembly. This victory occurred after a snap election was called by the country's president after the previous government collapsed. The coalition of right-wing parties is led by Mitar Cvetković, a native of the city of Nis in the south of Serbia.

Cvetkovic is widely expected to be elected as Prime Minister in the coming weeks. His coalition is widely seen as pro-Russian and Eurosceptic. Cvetkovic and others in his sphere have expressed their support for the independence of Serbs living in Bosnia. European observers have rung alarm bells regarding these views, claiming they represent a veiled threat of war with Bosnia.

Cvetkovic is expected to begin forming his cabinet in the coming days. International reactions have been mixed. Russia and Belarus, as well as leaders in the Srpska Republika in Bosnia, have congratulated Cvetkovic on his victory. Western European leaders, as well as the leaders of Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries have expressed concern.

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Marist: Hurt up in Illinois, Short leads in Missouri and Pennsylvania.

A recent trio of Marist polls have confirmed that the Presidential race remains a tossup going into the summer. The polls of three critical states in the Northeast and Midwest show that neither Short or Hurt have a commanding advantage in the. Marist polled Illinois, Missouri, and Pennsylvania, with results as followed.

The three states contain 48 Electoral Votes among them. Illinois, traditionally a NNL stronghold, has been drifting away from the party for some time. However, Hurt still holds a lead in the state. Pennsylvania, a perennial bellwether which has oscillated between liberal and laborist parties, backs Short by four points. Short leads Missouri by a similar margin of six points.

Pennsylvania (n=800, May 13-17)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 43%
Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 39%
Steven DeFalco (CDP) - 11%

Illinois (n=1000, May 13-17)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 40%
Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 45%
Steven DeFalco (CDP) - 8%

Missouri (n=1000, May 13-17)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 45%
Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 39%
Steven DeFalco (CDP) - 15%

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Quinnipiac: New National Liberals Narrowly Up in New York

A new poll from Quinnipiac poll has shown Sen. Joanne Hurt (NNL) up in New York state. The poll, conducted from May 10 to 13, shows Hurt narrowly leading Veronica Short 43-42 in the Empire state. Much of Hurt's strength comes from Long Island.

The Quinnipiac poll breaks down the results further.

Manhattan: Short +1
Brooklyn: Short +8
Queens: Hurt +2
Bronx: Short +11
Staten Island: Short +13
Westchester: Hurt +11
Suffolk: Hurt +27
Nassau: Hurt +13
Upstate: Short +10
West New York: Short +8

By median household income
Under 50,000: Short +14
50,000 to 75,000: Short +6
75,000 to 100,000: Hurt +4
100,000 to 125,000: Hurt +18
125,000+: Hurt +19

By education
High School: Short +17
Associates or some college: Short +11
Bachelor's: Hurt +2
Master's: Hurt +8
Doctorate: Hurt +23

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PPP: Short up in Nevada, Hurt up in California

A PPP poll of two states, conducted from May 9 to 11 finds Joanne Hurt leading Veronica Short by 4 in California, 45 to 41. In Nevada, Short leads Hurt by 3, 45 to 42.

In California, much of Hurt's lead comes from Southern California, where she leads by a greater margin: 54-39. Despite American Labor gains in San Diego and Santa Barbara counties over the past few years, SoCal remains a tough nut to crack for the laborist party. However, the story in Northern California is different, where Short leads Hurt 48 to 38. Short's base remains in the Sacramento Valley as well as San Francisco and Alamameda Counties.

Meanwhile, Hurt derives much of her lead from Orange, Riverside, Kern, and San Bernardino counties

In Nevada, Short performs well in North Las Vegas and Sunrise Manor as well as dominating in the city of Reno. Short also remains competitive in the rural parts of the state. Hurt does best in cities like Henderson, Enterprise, Spring Valley, western parts of Las Vegas proper, and Carson City.

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April Economic News: Service and Hospitality Boom in Post-Covid Growth

Los Angeles -

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs, which is roughly what was expected by experts. Much of this growth came from the service and hospitality industries which have been experiencing growth since the de facto end of the COVID pandemic. Moderate growth has also occurred in technology, science, and medicine industries. Unemployment remained stable at 4.1%.

Manufacturing has stagnated for the eighth month in a row, drawing ire from labor activists and unions.  ALP leaders in congress again call on the Senate to bring up their bill, the Manufacturing Revitalization and Innovation Act, to a vote. It is unlikely the Senate, under NNL control, will bring the bill to a vote.

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Preview for Sunday

- Crisis in the Middle East
- New Challenger Emerges?
- VP Shortlists