United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[Frodo]

Number 10 now apparently saying no GE before the autumn.

If Sunak keeps procrastinating until the holiday season, he is going to wish he had held the election earlier in the year....  

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is beyond pathetic.

[CumbrianLefty]

IMO another December 12th election is underpriced.

[MillennialModerate]

God, can't they just get it over with instead? This is starting to get ridiculous.

Are they running the risk that even if some things in the country do improve it won’t matter? Or are they already there at this point?

Also: That’s why the office holder being in charge of when to call an election when you have 5 year terms is - frankly dumb.

UK should have a set election every 4 years (5 is too long) and an early election be called when something like 2/3rds of the House requires it. The incumbent shouldn’t be able to manipulate the system in a way that takes advantage of the times they do the job right by landsliding an opponent (which is how you get these enormously long periods of single parties in power) and then when they are doing terrible and everyone wants them out they can essentially squat.

[Pericles]

At least the PM should announce at the beginning of the year when the election will be held. That won't happen, because it removes the opportunity for political games. It should though, it would provide certainty to businesses and the public.

[Mike88]

The UK needed a CIS type polling company to put the Tories like 3 points ahead of Labour, and in the next day, Sunak would call an election.

[TheTide]

Maybe it's because my 20s are behind me, but life seems to go by terrifyingly fast nowadays. It's frightening to me that it's only another six weeks until the Solstice. The consolation is that the ~six months until the general election will presumably go by fast too.

[Dan the Roman]

God, can't they just get it over with instead? This is starting to get ridiculous.

Are they running the risk that even if some things in the country do improve it won’t matter? Or are they already there at this point?

Also: That’s why the office holder being in charge of when to call an election when you have 5 year terms is - frankly dumb.

UK should have a set election every 4 years (5 is too long) and an early election be called when something like 2/3rds of the House requires it. The incumbent shouldn’t be able to manipulate the system in a way that takes advantage of the times they do the job right by landsliding an opponent (which is how you get these enormously long periods of single parties in power) and then when they are doing terrible and everyone wants them out they can essentially squat.

They tried this for a decade and it also didn't work well

[Logical]

The consequences of importing conspiracy theories from across the pond. If postal voting is scrapped the 500+ seats for Labour maps might come true after all lol.
https://twitter.com/Bren4Bassetlaw/status/1787744981798527463

[Lumine]

God, can't they just get it over with instead? This is starting to get ridiculous.

Are they running the risk that even if some things in the country do improve it won’t matter? Or are they already there at this point?

I feel that line was crossed as far back as Truss, though as a Black Wednesday equivalent it is certainly imperfect. Even accounting for Sunak's glaring weaknesses and sheer mediocrity, it's the party brand that's been thoroughly poisoned beyond the individual leader.

[Harry Hayfield]

The most likely timetable is this:

July 23rd 2024: Parliament rises for the summer, and Conservatives start campaigning on the quiet
September 2nd 2024: Parliament resumes after summer break
September 11th 2024: Autumn Statement where there is another 2p cut in National Insurance, a 1p cut in income tax across the board and the promise of another 1p income tax cut if the Conservatives win another term of office
September 16th 2024: If Labour's lead in the polls is greater than 10%, no election will be called, if it is less than 10% election called for October 17th 2024

In other words, it's either going to be October 17th 2024 or January 23rd 2025, and if it is the latter I am very minded to go to London and see if I can wangle helping either the BBC or ITV with their coverage in some way and then on the Sunday after the election, attend the memorial event for the death of King Charles I

[politicallefty]

At least the PM should announce at the beginning of the year when the election will be held. That won't happen, because it removes the opportunity for political games. It should though, it would provide certainty to businesses and the public.

You guys have it right though. I think a 3-year term is best. Five years is too long for a government to be in office without facing the electorate, especially when the PM elected at the time has been gone nearly two years. If you're going to have a 5-year term, maybe add a provision where a change in the PM requires an election within a set time (maybe six months, but certainly no longer than a year). In the same sense, I think the US does it wrong by having national elections every two years. That's too far in the other direction.

[Pericles]

At least the PM should announce at the beginning of the year when the election will be held. That won't happen, because it removes the opportunity for political games. It should though, it would provide certainty to businesses and the public.

You guys have it right though. I think a 3-year term is best. Five years is too long for a government to be in office without facing the electorate, especially when the PM elected at the time has been gone nearly two years. If you're going to have a 5-year term, maybe add a provision where a change in the PM requires an election within a set time (maybe six months, but certainly no longer than a year). In the same sense, I think the US does it wrong by having national elections every two years. That's too far in the other direction.

I actually think four years is the right balance, something the US does right. I don't think NZ voters would agree to changing it though.

[politicallefty]

At least the PM should announce at the beginning of the year when the election will be held. That won't happen, because it removes the opportunity for political games. It should though, it would provide certainty to businesses and the public.

You guys have it right though. I think a 3-year term is best. Five years is too long for a government to be in office without facing the electorate, especially when the PM elected at the time has been gone nearly two years. If you're going to have a 5-year term, maybe add a provision where a change in the PM requires an election within a set time (maybe six months, but certainly no longer than a year). In the same sense, I think the US does it wrong by having national elections every two years. That's too far in the other direction.

I actually think four years is the right balance, something the US does right. I don't think NZ voters would agree to changing it though.

It's not really four years in the US though. That's just the Presidency. The House and 1/3 of the Senate is up for election every two years.

[CumbrianLefty]

Elphicke's defection means the Tory majority is now officially under half what they got in the last GE.

[IceAgeComing]

The most likely timetable is this:

July 23rd 2024: Parliament rises for the summer, and Conservatives start campaigning on the quiet
September 2nd 2024: Parliament resumes after summer break
September 11th 2024: Autumn Statement where there is another 2p cut in National Insurance, a 1p cut in income tax across the board and the promise of another 1p income tax cut if the Conservatives win another term of office
September 16th 2024: If Labour's lead in the polls is greater than 10%, no election will be called, if it is less than 10% election called for October 17th 2024

In other words, it's either going to be October 17th 2024 or January 23rd 2025, and if it is the latter I am very minded to go to London and see if I can wangle helping either the BBC or ITV with their coverage in some way and then on the Sunday after the election, attend the memorial event for the death of King Charles I

I'll ignore the frankly bizarre last line and focus on the tax bit of this.

They have to make a call on the budget eleven weeks before (required period for an OBR forecast - which they will do) so it would be clear if there is one in the next few weeks unless they fancy following Truss's views. They also need to meet their fiscal rules which are already based on some incredibly sketchy grounds with there being no Spending Review until after the elections so the existing numbers for spending from 2025-26 on are sort of fake. In order to fund tax cuts (and the ones you are laying out would be pricy - the 2% cut in the Spring Budget cost £10bn in 2028-29 and for fiscal rules reasons that is the key number; a 1% Income Tax cut would probably be a little more than half that in addition as more people pay it; lets see roughly £17bn total in 2028-29 as a rough ballpark figure) would require funding that from somewhere else - and considering that amount it would require a combination of a very positive economic forecast (and if anything the recent trends are pessimistic on this); finding significant amounts of revenue from somewhere else (and that won't be from freezing thresholds because that's baked in; it needs to be raising other taxes or reducing evasion/avoidance or fiddling with reliefs and getting billions from that is difficult) or through 'cutting future spending' - and the OBR have already said that are sceptical of the governments spending plans and they might refuse to score further cuts without a spending review.

There's also a strong legislative barrier - you need to pass a National Insurance Act to reduce NICs rates; and a Finance Act for other taxes and that takes time even if you are doing it through wash-up - and I suspect that discredits your plans because inevitably Labour objects to bits that raise revenue and that means that the final thing might not be as scored and would be less credible. NICs Bills also have to go through the Lords which adds more time. I also would suspect the Opposition would be quite hostile to bumping two quite significant bills and then immediately calling an election - and you really need the opposition on board to fast track things.

In short the above proposals feel incredibly unrealistic unless there's some revenue raising hat to pull out of the bag (and they've done Non Doms already); and the timeline seems silly to me as well.

[DL]

Elphicke's defection means the Tory majority is now officially under half what they got in the last GE.

Do we know if she plans to contest Dover as a Labour candidate in the next election? It was already looking to be an easy pickup for Labour and they may even already have a candidate nominated.

[Duke of York]

Elphicke's defection means the Tory majority is now officially under half what they got in the last GE.

Do we know if she plans to contest Dover as a Labour candidate in the next election? It was already looking to be an easy pickup for Labour and they may even already have a candidate nominated.

she already said she's standing down at the next election.

[CumbrianLefty]

As with Dan Poulter, she announced her retirement at the coming GE a while ago - Labour selected their candidate for Dover last year and he seems to be fighting it pretty hard.

[DL]

Apparently there is some controversy within Labour on accepting a defector who was more of a rightwing pro-BoJo type - but if she is not running again - they only need to put up with her for a few months and in the meantime Labour gets the short term good news story about rats deserting the sinking Tory ship.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1788462769970233813

[YL]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus is predictably hilarious. Labour win Christchurch.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that Labour's lead is down or no change with every other pollsters in post locals polls.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1788462769970233813

good gosh. If this came to pass Sky News will be beyond entertaining to watch election night.

[CumbrianLefty]

Worth noting that Labour's lead is down or no change with every other pollsters in post locals polls.

Though at least some of those polls weren't conducted totally "post locals" - or not after the results actually being fully announced anyway.