MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fivethirtyeight saw our polls https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/

We've been acknowledged!!!!

Nate Silver and Harry Enten probably sh!tpost on here.

Plot twist: Harry Enten is Krazen

Ha. I have met Harry Enten personally (he dated a friend of mine for a while). Not creative enough to be krazen.

I too have met Enten. He's pretty milquetoast. And kind of a snob.

Perhaps he's Non Swing Voter?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

The correct term is Violent Greg.

Nah. It's Greg Fortissimo.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

The correct term is Violent Greg.

Nah. It's Greg Fortissimo.

It's Crazy Greg because it sounds like a nickname Trump would come up with.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

"If the Democrats can't win this after #Assaultgate and the CBO report, they might as well be on their way to dissolution."

If we somehow lose the NJ gubernatorial race this year I will be saying this ad naseum.

[_]

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

"If the Democrats can't win this after #Assaultgate and the CBO report, they might as well be on their way to dissolution."
- "I agree. But IMO we could see a MO-SEN 2012 redux here.... Oh wait, I just checked the 2016 results and apparently Trump won MT by 20 points. So Democrats are doing about 20 points better than Clinton? Will Trump even get 100 EV in 2020 now?"
- "Yeah, maybe. I don't want to overreact, but I believe that the party which loses this race might as well give up on controlling anything federally until after 2022."
- "If Quist wins, it is even more evidence that Montana is going the way of Vermont or maybe Colorado!"
- "Yeah, but what if Gianforte wins after all of this? Maybe MT is turning into... West Virginia? Also OR and WA should be put on WV watch... they're all similar states, right?"

Wow and I thought I was a partisan hack for thinking Rauner can win reelection.

[MT Treasurer]

Wow and I thought I was a partisan hack for thinking Rauner can win reelection.

Uh, I wasn't being serious.

Anyway, when will the link to the NY Times results page be available?

[Matty]

It seems fairly quiet in here for election day. No turnout reports, only a few articles linked.

sad!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow and I thought I was a partisan hack for thinking Rauner can win reelection.

Uh, I wasn't being serious.

Anyway, when will the link to the NY Times results page be available?

At some point within the next 7 hours or so.

[MT Treasurer]

It seems fairly quiet in here for election day. No turnout reports, only a few articles linked.

sad!

Better than people spreading false rumors. Also, we have 7 hours left and there hasn't been much "action" since yesterday.

[Gass3268]

It seems fairly quiet in here for election day. No turnout reports, only a few articles linked.

sad!

Better than people spreading false rumors. Also, we have 7 hours left and there hasn't been much "action" since yesterday.

Also this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So a state with only a million people is a slow-as-molasses counter. Sad!

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

     So a state with only a million people is a slow-as-molasses counter. Sad!

Hopefully it will be quicker since it's the only thing on the ballot.

[Kantakouzenos]

     So a state with only a million people is a slow-as-molasses counter. Sad!

Hopefully it will be quicker since it's the only thing on the ballot.

If ballots in America are counted by machine in most places, shouldn't it not really matter how many ballot items there are?

[MT Treasurer]

Absentee numbers have been updated.

As of 5/25, 11:25:45 AM:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

(Numbers for Cascade County are probably an error and will be fixed soon.)

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 70.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 78.3% of mail-ins returned (+0.5)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 78.5% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 69.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.3)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 79.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 74.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 73.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

STATEWIDE: 73.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.2)

Added the change (5/24-5/25, 11:25 AM) in brackets.

[GeorgiaModerate]

     So a state with only a million people is a slow-as-molasses counter. Sad!

Hopefully it will be quicker since it's the only thing on the ballot.

If ballots in America are counted by machine in most places, shouldn't it not really matter how many ballot items there are?

It's the part that comes after that creates a bottleneck.  For example, here in Georgia, Fulton County (which contains most of the city of Atlanta plus some suburbs) is notoriously slow to report.  Among other things, this is because the machine counts are tabulated at the precinct level and then sent to the county election board via modem.  And the county servers are running some antiquated version of Windows, which probably doesn't help.

[ApatheticAustrian]

NEW: Source close to Gianforte campaign says it's raised $100K+ online in last 24 hours -- most of it coming after reporter "body slam."


lol

[Matty]

NEW: Source close to Gianforte campaign says it's raised $100K+ online in last 24 hours -- most of it coming after reporter "body slam."


lol

gianforte probably is the donor.

[ApatheticAustrian]

even better:




who is this "lifezette"-licking gentleman?




Derek is the Director of Elections at the Montana Secretary of State's office. What a world. #mtpol #mtal @GregForMontana
https://twitter.com/jessekodadek/status/867810653859307524



mt seems to be as corrupt and "small" as austria.

[KingSweden]

NEW: Source close to Gianforte campaign says it's raised $100K+ online in last 24 hours -- most of it coming after reporter "body slam."


lol

gianforte probably is the donor.

Heh

[Figueira]

Interesting article about this race from last week

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

even better:




who is this "lifezette"-licking gentleman?




Derek is the Director of Elections at the Montana Secretary of State's office. What a world. #mtpol #mtal @GregForMontana
https://twitter.com/jessekodadek/status/867810653859307524



mt seems to be as corrupt and "small" as austria.

That's worrying.

[Kantakouzenos]

Absentee numbers have been updated.

As of 5/25, 11:25:45 AM:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

(Numbers for Cascade County are probably an error and will be fixed soon.)

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 70.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 78.3% of mail-ins returned (+0.5)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 78.5% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 69.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.3)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 79.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 74.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 73.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

STATEWIDE: 73.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.2)

Added the change (5/24-5/25, 11:25 AM) in brackets.

So the high points for Quist are probably higher than average turnout from Lewis & Clark and Silver Bow Counties, while Gianforte is lucky for the high turnout in Ravali and flathead counties, plus low ballots returned in Gallatin and Missoula counties?

[Brittain33]

Absentee numbers have been updated.

As of 5/25, 11:25:45 AM:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

(Numbers for Cascade County are probably an error and will be fixed soon.)

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 70.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 78.3% of mail-ins returned (+0.5)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 78.5% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 69.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.3)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 79.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 74.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 73.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

STATEWIDE: 73.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.2)

Added the change (5/24-5/25, 11:25 AM) in brackets.

So the high points for Quist are probably higher than average turnout from Lewis & Clark and Silver Bow Counties, while Gianforte is lucky for the high turnout in Ravali and flathead counties, plus low ballots returned in Gallatin and Missoula counties?

I don't know how to interpret any of it other than it doesn't show good news for Quist.

[Ebsy]

These are the wrong numbers to look at, honestly. They tell you absolutely nothing about how many people are going to vote, what turnout looks like, etc. Pretty inane that you guys are focusing on them instead of contextualizing them with RV numbers.

[Matty]

Any reports on the ground? During the G-6 primary, we were getting tweet after tweet about how many people had voted in precincts as the day went on. We were able to determine where turnout was high.